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這種價值數兆美元的加密貨幣在 2024 年開始表現出色,第一季全部三個月都在上漲,整個季度的回報率達到 68.68%
The final quarter of 2024 is here, and with that, traders are looking at the massive bull run that will melt the faces with new all-time highs (ATHs) for Bitcoin, altcoins, and meme coins. But are we really in for a good time ahead or will it be a pain of price drops and sideways action?
2024 年最後一個季度即將到來,交易員們正在關注大規模的牛市,這將使比特幣、山寨幣和模因幣創下歷史新高 (ATH)。但我們真的會迎來美好時光嗎?
Well, to determine that, we have to take a deeper look into all that’s going on in the crypto space. So, let’s see!
好吧,為了確定這一點,我們必須更深入地研究加密貨幣領域正在發生的一切。那麼,讓我們來看看吧!
The Best September for BTC Marks a Green Q3
BTC 最好的九月標誌著第三季的綠色發展
The trillion-dollar cryptocurrency started 2024 on a great note, rising all three months of Q1 to record 68.68% returns in the entire quarter, according to CoinGlass. This was followed by a red Q2, recording 11.92% losses.
根據 CoinGlass 的數據,這種價值數兆美元的加密貨幣在 2024 年伊始表現出色,第一季全部三個月都在上漲,整個季度的回報率達到 68.68%。其次是第二季的紅色,錄得 11.92% 的損失。
While Q3 has been green, the gains have been a mere 0.96%. However, it brought us Bitcoin’s strongest September yet.
儘管第三季表現良好,但漲幅僅為 0.96%。然而,它為我們帶來了比特幣迄今為止最強勁的九月。
The price of BTC jumped 7.29% last month, the most BTC has ever had in the last 13 September that Bitcoin has had. Of these 12 September, eight have been red, bringing the average returns to the month at negative 3.77%.
上個月,BTC 的價格上漲了 7.29%,這是比特幣自 9 月 13 日以來漲幅最大的一次。其中 9 月 12 日有 8 個為紅色,使該月的平均回報率為負 3.77%。
But with a green September, BTC/USD is now trading at $64,000, down 13.3% from its peak of $73,740 hit in mid-March. Prior to the weekend, BTC/USD went up to $66,500, amidst monetary easing policies worldwide and institutional investments, before dumping this week just as US equity indexes did.
但隨著 9 月的好轉,BTC/美元目前的交易價格為 64,000 美元,較 3 月中旬觸及的峰值 73,740 美元下跌了 13.3%。在週末之前,在全球貨幣寬鬆政策和機構投資的推動下,BTC/美元上漲至 66,500 美元,但本週像美國股指一樣出現拋售。
These losses came after Shigeru Ishiba, seen as a monetary policy hawk, was selected as Japan’s new prime minister. However, he is of the view that “monetary policy must remain accommodative as a trend.”
這些損失是在被視為貨幣政策鷹派的石破茂被選為日本新首相之後發生的。不過,他認為「貨幣政策必須保持寬鬆作為趨勢」。
Interestingly, late in July, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) had a modest rate hike, which triggered an unwinding of the risk-on trades. The global panic in markets, which also saw BTC drop from about $65K to $50K in a matter of a few days, had the central bank reassuring that there won’t be any more hikes this year.
有趣的是,7月底,日本央行(BOJ)小幅升息,引發了風險交易的平倉。全球市場的恐慌導致比特幣在幾天內從約 6.5 萬美元跌至 5 萬美元,央行保證今年不會再升息。
The bigger news, however, came from the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Monday, who crashed market expectations that future rate cuts will be as aggressive as the recent 50 basis point cut.
然而,更大的消息來自週一聯準會主席鮑威爾,他打破了市場對未來降息幅度將像最近的 50 個基點一樣激進的預期。
A Fresh Wave of Capital Ready to be Injected
新一輪資本注入蓄勢待發
The first-rate cut in four years, which sent the BTC price on an uptrend, came from the Fed two weeks ago, which lowered the federal funds rate to the 4.75%-5% range.
聯準會兩週前將聯邦基金利率下調至 4.75%-5% 區間,這是四年來首次降息,導致 BTC 價格上漲。
Lower US rates typically lead to a weakening US Dollar, and with USD being the primary quote asset for BTC, it leads to higher prices for the largest crypto asset. Also, by making holding cash less attractive and stimulating the economy, it moves investors into riskier assets like Bitcoin.
美國利率下降通常會導緻美元走軟,而美元是比特幣的主要報價資產,這會導致最大的加密資產的價格上漲。此外,透過降低持有現金的吸引力並刺激經濟,它會將投資者轉向比特幣等風險較高的資產。
Around the same time, China also announced its biggest monetary and fiscal stimulus since the pandemic to help boost the country's economy and markets. The unveiling of the broader-than-expected package came last week that offers rate cuts and more funding to help the world's second-largest economy achieve its growth target.
大約在同一時間,中國也宣布了自大流行以來最大規模的貨幣和財政刺激措施,以幫助提振國家經濟和市場。上週公佈了超出預期的一攬子計劃,其中包括降息和提供更多資金,以幫助世界第二大經濟體實現其成長目標。
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has also introduced new tools to boost the capital market. This includes a swap program the size of an initial 500 billion yuan that will allow brokers, funds, and insurers easier access to funding to buy stocks and as much as 300 bln yuan in cheap loans to banks so that they can fund share purchases and buybacks of other entities.
中國人民銀行(PBOC)也推出了新工具來提振資本市場。其中包括一項初始規模為5000 億元人民幣的掉期計劃,該計劃將使券商、基金和保險公司更容易獲得購買股票的資金,並向銀行提供高達3000 億元人民幣的廉價貸款,以便它們為股票購買和回購提供資金其他實體的。
Given that Chinese traders are known for their high-risk tolerance, increased demand from Chinese traders is expected to send crypto prices higher in the long run.
鑑於中國交易者以高風險承受能力而聞名,從長遠來看,中國交易者需求的增加預計將推高加密貨幣價格。
Meanwhile, in the US, Powell has disappointed the hopes of many investors that the Fed would implement yet another steep half-point rate reduction before the year ends.
同時,在美國,鮑威爾令許多投資人失望,他們希望聯準會在年底前再次大幅降息半個百分點。
“Looking forward, if the economy evolves broadly as expected, policy will move over time toward a more neutral stance,” said Powell, noting that there’s no preset course and the decisions will be made “meeting by meeting.”
鮑威爾表示:「展望未來,如果經濟大體按照預期發展,政策將隨著時間的推移轉向更中立的立場。」他指出,沒有預設路線,決策將「逐次會議」做出。
Rate cuts are still in the pipeline, though, just at a measured pace to support an economy, which Powell says is healthy.
不過,降息仍在醞釀中,只是以適度的步伐來支持經濟,鮑威爾稱經濟健康。
“Overall, the economy is in solid shape. We intend to use our tools to keep it there.”
「整體而言,經濟狀況穩健。我們打算使用我們的工具將其保留在那裡。
– Powell
——鮑威爾
The Fed’s next rate decision will be its November policy meeting, which will come right after the presidential election. According to prediction market Polymarket, betters are giving a 25 bps rate cut in November, a 63% chance of happening. CME FedWatch, meanwhile, puts it at almost 40%.
聯準會的下一次利率決定將是在總統大選之後召開的 11 月政策會議。據預測市場 Polymarket 預測,11 月降息 25 個基點的可能性為 63%。同時,CME FedWatch 預計比例將接近 40%。
So, Uptober
所以,厄普托伯
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