所有人的目光都集中在明天3月19日的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上

通过许多分析师认为可以在未来几个月内为包括比特币（BTC）在内的全球风险资产定下基调的利率决定。

All eyes are on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting tomorrow, March 19, with a rate decision that many analysts believe could set the tone for global risk assets, including Bitcoin (BTC), for the months ahead.

所有人的目光都集中在明天3月19日的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上，许多分析人士认为，在未来几个月内，许多分析师认为可以为包括比特币（BTC）在内的全球风险资产定下基调。

While markets are pricing in a 99% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged, the real driver of volatility could be the central bank’s updated Dot Plot—a key measure of policymakers’ rate projections.

尽管市场的定价为99％的概率，即美联储保持其基准利率不变，但波动率的真正驱动力可能是中央银行更新的DOT图，这是政策制定者利率预测的关键度量。

What Bitcoin Investors Need To Know

比特币投资者需要知道什么

Although the consensus is that the Fed will not move rates this time, the Dot Plot may reveal how many cuts are likely for the remainder of the year. Many market participants are bracing for anything between one and three cuts.

尽管共识是美联储这次不会提高费率，但点图可能会揭示一年剩余时间的削减。许多市场参与者正在为一到三个削减的任何事情做好准备。

Three cuts would signal a more aggressive pivot toward easing, often viewed as bullish for risk assets such as Bitcoin. Two cuts are generally seen as a neutral scenario, implying a balanced policy approach. One cut or fewer could be interpreted as bearish, underscoring the possibility that the Fed may stay tight longer than markets expect.

三项削减将标志着对放松的更具侵略性的枢纽，通常被视为对比特币等风险资产的看涨。通常将两个切割视为中立的情况，这意味着一种平衡的政策方法。可以将一个削减或更少的人解释为看跌，强调美联储可能比市场预期的更长的可能性。

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will address the press about 30 minutes after the rate announcement, providing further insights into the central bank’s thinking. Of particular interest to Bitcoin and traditional investors alike is any hint regarding the potential end of Quantitative Tightening (QT). Recent speculation suggests that if Powell signals a wind-down—or even a shift back to asset purchases—market sentiment could improve “significantly,” as one senior strategist noted.

在宣布利率之后约30分钟，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）将向媒体讲话，从而进一步了解中央银行的思想。比特币和传统投资者尤其感兴趣的是关于定量收紧（QT）的潜在终结的任何暗示。正如一位高级策略师指出的那样，最近的猜测表明，如果鲍威尔（Powell）发出降雨的信号，甚至向资产购买的转移，即使是回到资产购买的转移，市场的情绪就可以“显着”改善。

Kyledoops, a widely followed technical analyst, noted, “Polymarket is pricing in a 100% chance that the Fed ends QT by May. If Powell even whispers ‘QE’ at the next FOMC, markets will move fast. But knowing Powell, he’ll keep it as vague as possible.”

Kyledoops是一位受到广泛技术分析师的Kyledoops，他指出：“ Polymarket的价格为100％的机会，即美联储在5月之前结束QT。如果鲍威尔在下一个FOMC上窃窃私语“ QE”，市场将会快速移动。但是了解鲍威尔，他会尽可能模糊地保持。”

Prominent crypto commentators are issuing mixed yet intense warnings about the volatility that could be unleashed once the Fed’s plans become clear. Cobak (@CobakOfficial) wrote on X: “A big move is coming soon! BTC has major liquidation clusters at $81,640 & $84,800. With the FOMC rate decision approaching, where will Bitcoin head first?”

著名的加密评论员对一旦美联储的计划变得明确，就会发出有关波动性的混杂而强烈的警告。 Cobak（@cobakofficial）在X上写道：“很快就会出现一个重大举措！BTC的重大清算集群为81,640美元和84,800美元。FOMCRate的决策临近，比特币首先会在哪里？”

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) expressed a cautiously bullish view but expects further “chop” until the announcement: “Weekly open below, target still above, still expecting further chop until FOMC. Range scenario continuing to play out and eyes on weekly open as I wouldn’t be surprised that gets tapped. Also FOMC meeting in two days, which fully confirms our bottom call scenario.”

同时，加密分析师天文学家（@astronomer_zero）表达了一个谨慎的看法，但期望进一步“斩首”，直到宣布为止：“每周开放，目标仍然超过上面，直到FOMC。

He further elaborated that the best prices for trades often come around the FOMC meeting itself, observing: “It just induces more low conviction traders… which is another reason why the best prices (tops and bottoms) come right before and right after FOMC… As you know, the candles open is always a strong characteristic of the current situation.”

他进一步阐述说，交易的最优惠价格通常是在FOMC会议上本身围绕着：“它只是引起了更多的信念交易者……这是FOMC之前和之后最优秀的价格（上和底部）的另一个原因……如您所知，蜡烛打开的是当前情况的强烈特征。”

On potential targets for Bitcoin, Astronomer indicated he’s watching the $80,900 zone for “more longs,” while also suggesting a scenario where BTC could surge toward $87,000 if it breaks out above weekly open levels.

关于比特币的潜在目标，天文学家表示，他正在观看“更多渴望”的80,900美元区域，同时也暗示了如果BTC在每周的开放水平上方爆发，则BTC可能会飙升至87,000美元。

ING Sees Weakening Growth

ING认为生长弱

Banking giant ING, in a recent note, highlighted an evolving macro picture clouded by President Trump’s policy priorities: “After 100bp of interest rate cuts in late 2024, Chair Powell suggests that the Fed aren’t in a hurry to ease policy further and a no change outcome is widely expected on 19 March. But President Trump’s spending cuts and trade protectionist policies are putting pressure on growth and will likely claim the central bank to pivot in the second half of 2025.”

银行业务巨型在最近的一句话中强调了一幅不断发展的宏观图片，特朗普总统的政策重点笼罩着：“在2024年末降低了100bp的利率降低后，鲍威尔主席建议，美联储并不急于进一步缓解政策，而无需更改的结果是在3月19日的范围内广泛预期的。 2025年。”

ING underscores that while the Fed is not currently cutting rates—given still-solid employment numbers and inflation “tracking hot”—increasing downside risks could shift the balance of policymaking: “Disappointing economic data and President Trump showing no to these policies has led equity markets to take a dimmer view on the prospects for the economy… We will expect the Fed to largely retain their forecasts… with two 25bp rate cuts this year. Nonetheless, the outlook for growth is cooling and the pressure for the Fed to offer more support to the economy will likely grow.”

强调的是，尽管美联储目前尚未降低费率，但仍保持固定的就业人数和通货膨胀“跟踪热门” - 遇到下行风险可能会改变决策的平衡：“令人失望的经济数据和特朗普总统表现出这些政策的否定导致股票市场对经济的看法，我们将在这一年中付出了一定的预期……他们将在这一年中保持不变的境界……这两次不断努力……两者都没有限制。增长的前景是冷却，美联储为经济提供更多支持的压力可能会增长。”

At press time, BTC traded at $81,725.

发稿时，BTC的交易价格为81,725美元。