所有人的目光都集中在明天3月19日的聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議上

通過許多分析師認為可以在未來幾個月內為包括比特幣（BTC）在內的全球風險資產定下基調的利率決定。

All eyes are on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting tomorrow, March 19, with a rate decision that many analysts believe could set the tone for global risk assets, including Bitcoin (BTC), for the months ahead.

所有人的目光都集中在明天3月19日的聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）會議上，許多分析人士認為，在未來幾個月內，許多分析師認為可以為包括比特幣（BTC）在內的全球風險資產定下基調。

While markets are pricing in a 99% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged, the real driver of volatility could be the central bank’s updated Dot Plot—a key measure of policymakers’ rate projections.

儘管市場的定價為99％的概率，即美聯儲保持其基準利率不變，但波動率的真正驅動力可能是中央銀行更新的DOT圖，這是政策制定者利率預測的關鍵度量。

What Bitcoin Investors Need To Know

比特幣投資者需要知道什麼

Although the consensus is that the Fed will not move rates this time, the Dot Plot may reveal how many cuts are likely for the remainder of the year. Many market participants are bracing for anything between one and three cuts.

儘管共識是美聯儲這次不會提高費率，但點圖可能會揭示一年剩餘時間的削減。許多市場參與者正在為一到三個削減的任何事情做好準備。

Three cuts would signal a more aggressive pivot toward easing, often viewed as bullish for risk assets such as Bitcoin. Two cuts are generally seen as a neutral scenario, implying a balanced policy approach. One cut or fewer could be interpreted as bearish, underscoring the possibility that the Fed may stay tight longer than markets expect.

三項削減將標誌著對放鬆的更具侵略性的樞紐，通常被視為對比特幣等風險資產的看漲。通常將兩個切割視為中立的情況，這意味著一種平衡的政策方法。可以將一個削減或更少的人解釋為看跌，強調美聯儲可能比市場預期的更長的可能性。

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will address the press about 30 minutes after the rate announcement, providing further insights into the central bank’s thinking. Of particular interest to Bitcoin and traditional investors alike is any hint regarding the potential end of Quantitative Tightening (QT). Recent speculation suggests that if Powell signals a wind-down—or even a shift back to asset purchases—market sentiment could improve “significantly,” as one senior strategist noted.

在宣布利率之後約30分鐘，美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）將向媒體講話，從而進一步了解中央銀行的思想。比特幣和傳統投資者尤其感興趣的是關於定量收緊（QT）的潛在終結的任何暗示。正如一位高級策略師指出的那樣，最近的猜測表明，如果鮑威爾（Powell）發出降雨的信號，甚至向資產購買的轉移，即使是回到資產購買的轉移，市場的情緒就可以“顯著”改善。

Kyledoops, a widely followed technical analyst, noted, “Polymarket is pricing in a 100% chance that the Fed ends QT by May. If Powell even whispers ‘QE’ at the next FOMC, markets will move fast. But knowing Powell, he’ll keep it as vague as possible.”

Kyledoops是一位受到廣泛技術分析師的Kyledoops，他指出：“ Polymarket的價格為100％的機會，即美聯儲在5月之前結束QT。如果鮑威爾在下一個FOMC上竊竊私語“ QE”，市場將會快速移動。但是了解鮑威爾，他會盡可能模糊地保持。”

Prominent crypto commentators are issuing mixed yet intense warnings about the volatility that could be unleashed once the Fed’s plans become clear. Cobak (@CobakOfficial) wrote on X: “A big move is coming soon! BTC has major liquidation clusters at $81,640 & $84,800. With the FOMC rate decision approaching, where will Bitcoin head first?”

著名的加密評論員對一旦美聯儲的計劃變得明確，就會發出有關波動性的混雜而強烈的警告。 Cobak（@cobakofficial）在X上寫道：“很快就會出現一個重大舉措！BTC的重大清算集群為81,640美元和84,800美元。FOMCRate的決策臨近，比特幣首先會在哪裡？”

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) expressed a cautiously bullish view but expects further “chop” until the announcement: “Weekly open below, target still above, still expecting further chop until FOMC. Range scenario continuing to play out and eyes on weekly open as I wouldn’t be surprised that gets tapped. Also FOMC meeting in two days, which fully confirms our bottom call scenario.”

同時，加密分析師天文學家（@astronomer_zero）表達了一個謹慎的看法，但期望進一步“斬首”，直到宣佈為止：“每週開放，目標仍然超過上面，直到FOMC。

He further elaborated that the best prices for trades often come around the FOMC meeting itself, observing: “It just induces more low conviction traders… which is another reason why the best prices (tops and bottoms) come right before and right after FOMC… As you know, the candles open is always a strong characteristic of the current situation.”

他進一步闡述說，交易的最優惠價格通常是在FOMC會議上本身圍繞著：“它只是引起了更多的信念交易者……這是FOMC之前和之後最優秀的價格（上和底部）的另一個原因……如您所知，蠟燭打開的是當前情況的強烈特徵。”

On potential targets for Bitcoin, Astronomer indicated he’s watching the $80,900 zone for “more longs,” while also suggesting a scenario where BTC could surge toward $87,000 if it breaks out above weekly open levels.

關於比特幣的潛在目標，天文學家表示，他正在觀看“更多渴望”的80,900美元區域，同時也暗示瞭如果BTC在每週的開放水平上方爆發，則BTC可能會飆升至87,000美元。

ING Sees Weakening Growth

ING認為生長弱

Banking giant ING, in a recent note, highlighted an evolving macro picture clouded by President Trump’s policy priorities: “After 100bp of interest rate cuts in late 2024, Chair Powell suggests that the Fed aren’t in a hurry to ease policy further and a no change outcome is widely expected on 19 March. But President Trump’s spending cuts and trade protectionist policies are putting pressure on growth and will likely claim the central bank to pivot in the second half of 2025.”

銀行業務巨型在最近的一句話中強調了一幅不斷發展的宏觀圖片，特朗普總統的政策重點籠罩著：“在2024年末降低了100bp的利率降低後，鮑威爾主席建議，美聯儲並不急於進一步緩解政策，而無需更改的結果是在3月19日的範圍內廣泛預期的。 2025年。”

ING underscores that while the Fed is not currently cutting rates—given still-solid employment numbers and inflation “tracking hot”—increasing downside risks could shift the balance of policymaking: “Disappointing economic data and President Trump showing no to these policies has led equity markets to take a dimmer view on the prospects for the economy… We will expect the Fed to largely retain their forecasts… with two 25bp rate cuts this year. Nonetheless, the outlook for growth is cooling and the pressure for the Fed to offer more support to the economy will likely grow.”

強調的是，儘管美聯儲目前沒有降低速度 - 持續不變的就業人數和通貨膨脹“跟踪熱門”可能會改變政策的平衡：“令人失望的經濟數據和特朗普的令人失望增長的前景是冷卻，美聯儲為經濟提供更多支持的壓力可能會增長。”

At press time, BTC traded at $81,725.

發稿時，BTC的交易價格為81,725美元。