欧洲准备好过冬了吗？储气量高，应急计划正在进行中

尽管乌克兰和俄罗斯之间的天然气运输协议即将到期，但欧盟预计明年冬天有足够的天然气储备。随着天然气储存设施达到历史新高，欧盟的目标是维持高库存水平，以减轻潜在的供应中断。传统上依赖通过乌克兰的俄罗斯天然气的奥地利和斯洛伐克正在探索替代来源，以尽量减少潜在供应削减的影响。此外，欧洲预计将继续从美国和俄罗斯进口液化天然气，进一步增强供应安全。

Is Europe Geared Up for Winter?

欧洲准备好迎接冬天了吗？

Despite the looming uncertainty over Russian gas supply via Ukraine, Europe's gas coffers are brimming, with storage facilities boasting a record-high 59% fill rate—a testament to mild weather and surging renewables output. "Europe is poised for another summer inventory high," affirms James Waddell of Energy Aspects.

尽管通过乌克兰向俄罗斯供应天然气的不确定性迫在眉睫，但欧洲的天然气库仍然充裕，储存设施的填充率达到创纪录的 59%，这证明了气候温和和可再生能源产量激增。 Energy Aspects 的詹姆斯·瓦德尔 (James Waddell) 表示：“欧洲夏季库存有望再创新高。”

With EU mandates requiring 90% storage fullness by November, Europe hopes to avert next winter's supply woes. While countries like Austria and Slovakia remain dependent on Russian gas via Ukraine, they're exploring alternative sources to buffer against potential disruptions.

由于欧盟要求 11 月之前存储空间达到 90%，欧洲希望避免明年冬季的供应困境。尽管奥地利和斯洛伐克等国仍然依赖通过乌克兰的俄罗斯天然气，但他们正在探索替代来源以缓冲潜在的供应中断。

Austria's Contingency Plan

奥地利的应急计划

OMV, Austria's energy giant, has secured long-term LNG regasification capacity at Rotterdam, broadening its supply options. This move reflects Austria's preparedness for potential disruptions in Russian gas supply.

奥地利能源巨头 OMV 已在鹿特丹获得了长期液化天然气再气化能力，扩大了其供应选择。此举反映出奥地利已做好应对俄罗斯天然气供应潜在中断的准备。

Slovakia's Agility

斯洛伐克的敏捷性

SPP, Slovakia's gas distributor, is diligently monitoring market developments and contingency plans. "LNG will play a crucial role in replacing lost Russian gas," emphasizes Sindre Knutsson of Rystad Energy.

斯洛伐克的天然气分销商 SPP 正在努力监控市场发展和应急计划。 Rystad Energy 的 Sindre Knutsson 强调说：“液化天然气将在替代俄罗斯失去的天然气方面发挥至关重要的作用。”

US LNG Bonanza

美国液化天然气富矿

Europe's supply will be bolstered by US LNG exports, which accounted for nearly 14% of EU demand last year. The price disparity between US and European gas keeps Europe an attractive destination for American LNG.

欧洲的供应将受到美国液化天然气出口的支撑，去年美国液化天然气出口占欧盟需求的近14%。美国和欧洲天然气之间的价格差异使欧洲成为美国液化天然气的有吸引力的目的地。

Russian LNG: The Dilemma

俄罗斯液化天然气：困境

Despite sanctions, Europe continues to import significant quantities of Russian LNG. Member states have yet to reach consensus on banning these imports, allowing Russian LNG to continue flowing. However, analysts caution that an EU ban on Russian LNG could create supply risks.

尽管受到制裁，欧洲仍继续进口大量俄罗斯液化天然气。成员国尚未就禁止这些进口、允许俄罗斯液化天然气继续流动达成共识。然而，分析人士警告称，欧盟对俄罗斯液化天然气的禁令可能会带来供应风险。

Winter Price Predictions

冬季价格预测

Analysts estimate the benchmark Dutch TTF gas contract to range from €29-37.5 per megawatt hour next winter, roughly $9.25-$12 per mmBtu. Energy Aspects' Waddell warns that a halt in Ukrainian gas flows could inflate prices by €10/MWh.

分析师估计明年冬季荷兰 TTF 天然气基准合约价格为每兆瓦时 29 至 37.5 欧元，约合每百万英热单位 9.25 至 12 美元。 Energy Aspects 的瓦德尔警告说，乌克兰天然气供应的中断可能会使价格上涨 10 欧元/兆瓦时。

Conclusion

结论

Europe's gas outlook for next winter rests on a foundation of ample storage, alternative supply sources, and the ongoing flow of US LNG. Despite uncertainties surrounding Russian gas via Ukraine, Europe remains optimistic about meeting its energy needs. However, a potential supply disruption could test this optimism, leading to price increases and the need for further contingency measures.

欧洲明年冬季的天然气前景取决于充足的储存、替代供应来源和美国液化天然气的持续供应。尽管俄罗斯通过乌克兰的天然气存在不确定性，但欧洲仍然对满足其能源需求持乐观态度。然而，潜在的供应中断可能会考验这种乐观情绪，导致价格上涨并需要采取进一步的应急措施。