以太坊长期持有者活动表明未来可能出现爆炸性走势

根据历史数据，当长期持有者转向“贪婪模式”时，以太坊的$ETH代币在之前的牛市周期中呈抛物线走势。

Ethereum’s price movements and long-term holder activity point to a potentially explosive move ahead. According to historical data, Ethereum’s $ETH token has gone parabolic in previous bull cycles when long-term holders shifted into “greed mode.” Currently, data suggests holders are only in the early stages of the “belief phase,” signaling the possibility of significant upside in the coming months.

以太坊的价格走势和长期持有者活动表明未来可能出现爆炸性走势。根据历史数据，当长期持有者转向“贪婪模式”时，以太坊的$ETH代币在之前的牛市周期中呈抛物线走势。目前，数据显示持有者仅处于“信念阶段”的早期阶段，这表明未来几个月可能出现大幅上涨。

In the past two bull cycles, #Ethereum $ETH went parabolic when long-term holders shifted into greed mode. Right now, they’re only in the early stages of the belief phase. The big move could still be ahead! pic.twitter.com/warxPOlSFj

在过去的两个牛市周期中，当长期持有者转向贪婪模式时，#Ethereum $ETH 呈抛物线走势。目前，他们仅处于信念阶段的早期阶段。大动作仍可能在前面！ pic.twitter.com/warxPOLSFj

According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, The chart attached to the analysis divides Ethereum long-term holder behavior into several sentiment phases: Capitulation, Hope-Fear, Optimism-Anxiety, Belief-Denial, Euphoria, and finally, Greed. During each bull cycle, Ethereum has exhibited clear behavioral patterns among its long-term holders. As the price begins to rise, holders move from despair to cautious optimism, reflected in the shift from “Hope-Fear” to “Optimism-Anxiety.” However, the most important signals emerge as investors transition into the “Belief-Denial” phase, where they gain confidence in the price rally and begin holding with the expectation of further gains.

根据加密货币分析师 Ali Martinez 的说法，分析所附的图表将以太坊长期持有者的行为分为几个情绪阶段：投降、希望-恐惧、乐观-焦虑、信仰-否认、欣快感，最后是贪婪。在每个牛市周期中，以太坊的长期持有者都表现出明显的行为模式。随着价格开始上涨，持有者从绝望转向谨慎乐观，体现在从“希望-恐惧”到“乐观-焦虑”的转变。然而，当投资者过渡到“信念-否认”阶段时，最重要的信号就会出现，他们对价格上涨充满信心，并开始持有，期望进一步上涨。

Currently, the chart shows that Ethereum is in the early stages of the belief phase. This phase, historically, has preceded parabolic price movements and coincided with strong bullish momentum.

目前，图表显示以太坊正处于信念阶段的早期阶段。从历史上看，这一阶段发生在抛物线价格波动之前，并且与强劲的看涨势头同时发生。

Ethereum’s Early Belief Phase Signals Growth Ahead

以太坊的早期信念阶段预示着未来的增长

In past Ethereum bull cycles, the transition into the greed phase—marked by widespread market euphoria and heavy profit-taking—was a key indicator of the market approaching a peak. Notably, ETH prices saw massive upward moves when long-term holders entered this phase. The chart reflects two key time periods: 2017 Bull Cycle: Ethereum transitioned from belief to greed mode, propelling prices from under $100 to over $1,400, 2021 Bull Cycle: A similar pattern saw ETH surge from $500 to a record high of $4,800.

在过去的以太坊牛市周期中，向贪婪阶段的过渡（以广泛的市场兴奋和大量获利了结为标志）是市场接近顶峰的关键指标。值得注意的是，当长期持有者进入这一阶段时，ETH 价格出现大幅上涨。该图表反映了两个关键时间段：2017 年牛市周期：以太坊从信仰模式转变为贪婪模式，推动价格从 100 美元以下升至 1,400 美元以上；2021 年牛市周期：类似的模式使 ETH 从 500 美元飙升至 4,800 美元的历史新高。

Comparing these previous bull cycles to the current market setup, long-term holders are still far from “greed mode,” as indicated by the sentiment remaining in the belief phase. This suggests that Ethereum’s biggest gains in the current cycle may still be ahead. The behavior of long-term holders is critical for understanding market trends, as it highlights the conviction of large ETH investors. When holders move into belief, they tend to accumulate tokens or avoid selling, effectively reducing the circulating supply on exchanges. This creates upward price pressure as demand for ETH grows while supply remains constrained.

将之前的牛市周期与当前的市场设置进行比较，长期持有者仍远未达到“贪婪模式”，这一点从仍处于信念阶段的情绪即可看出。这表明以太坊在当前周期中的最大涨幅可能仍在前方。长期持有者的行为对于理解市场趋势至关重要，因为它凸显了大型 ETH 投资者的信念。当持有者相信时，他们倾向于积累代币或避免出售，从而有效地减少了交易所的流通供应量。由于 ETH 的需求增长而供应仍然受到限制，这造成了价格上涨的压力。

Currently, ETH has been consolidating in a range between $1,800 and $2,200, reflecting early-stage accumulation. If this belief phase strengthens, it could signal that ETH is gearing up for its next major price movement—much like the patterns observed in 2017 and 2021. Another factor bolstering the belief phase is Ethereum’s growing role in the decentralized finance (DeFi) and real-world asset tokenization ecosystems. Institutional interest in Ethereum is rising, with major corporations exploring its network for scalability, decentralized applications, and Layer 2 solutions.

目前，ETH 一直在 1,800 美元至 2,200 美元之间盘整，反映了早期的积累。如果这种信念阶段得到加强，则可能表明 ETH 正在为下一次重大价格走势做好准备——就像 2017 年和 2021 年观察到的模式一样。支撑信念阶段的另一个因素是以太坊在去中心化金融 (DeFi) 和实体经济中日益重要的作用。 -世界资产代币化生态系统。机构对以太坊的兴趣正在上升，各大公司都在探索其网络的可扩展性、去中心化应用程序和第 2 层解决方案。

The combination of institutional demand, shrinking exchange reserves, and strong long-term holder sentiment is creating a bullish foundation for Ethereum. This backdrop aligns with the belief phase, supporting the narrative of a sustained upward trajectory.

机构需求、外汇储备萎缩以及强劲的长期持有者情绪相结合，正在为以太坊奠定看涨基础。这一背景与信念阶段一致，支持持续上升轨迹的叙述。

Will Ethereum Follow Its Historical Path?

以太坊会遵循其历史轨迹吗？

While historical trends do not guarantee future outcomes, the parallels between previous bull cycles and the current phase are striking. Long-term holders remain a crucial component of Ethereum’s market structure. Their behavior, as outlined in the chart, suggests that Ethereum has yet to reach the point of euphoria and greed that typically marks a bull market top.

虽然历史趋势并不能保证未来的结果，但之前的牛市周期与当前阶段之间的相似之处是惊人的。长期持有者仍然是以太坊市场结构的重要组成部分。正如图表中概述的那样，他们的行为表明以太坊尚未达到通常标志着牛市顶部的欣快和贪婪的程度。

If this historical pattern holds, the “big move” for ETH could be on the horizon as holders move deeper into the belief phase and eventually into greed mode. Traders and investors are watching closely for any breakout signals, particularly as ETH’s price builds momentum toward key psychological levels.

如果这种历史模式成立，随着持有者进一步进入信念阶段并最终进入贪婪模式，ETH 的“大变动”可能即将到来。交易员和投资者正在密切关注任何突破信号，特别是当 ETH 的价格向关键心理水平建立动力时。

The early belief phase in Ethereum long-term holder activity points to a market still in its growth stage, with significant upside potential. As history has shown, when holders transition into greed, parabolic moves have followed, propelling ETH to new highs. Investors and analysts alike will be watching for further signals as Ethereum’s bull cycle progresses.For now, all signs suggest the big move for Ethereum may still be ahead.

以太坊长期持有者活动的早期信念表明市场仍处于增长阶段，具有巨大的上行潜力。正如历史所表明的，当持有者变得贪婪时，抛物线走势就会随之而来，将 ETH 推向新高。随着以太坊牛市周期的进展，投资者和分析师都将关注进一步的信号。目前，所有迹象都表明以太坊的大幅波动可能仍在前方。