以太坊長期持有者活動顯示未來可能出現爆炸性走勢

根據歷史數據，當長期持有者轉向「貪婪模式」時，以太坊的$ETH代幣在先前的牛市週期中呈現拋物線走勢。

Ethereum’s price movements and long-term holder activity point to a potentially explosive move ahead. According to historical data, Ethereum’s $ETH token has gone parabolic in previous bull cycles when long-term holders shifted into “greed mode.” Currently, data suggests holders are only in the early stages of the “belief phase,” signaling the possibility of significant upside in the coming months.

以太坊的價格走勢和長期持有者活動顯示未來可能出現爆炸性走勢。根據歷史數據，當長期持有者轉向「貪婪模式」時，以太坊的$ETH代幣在先前的牛市週期中呈現拋物線走勢。目前，數據顯示持有者僅處於「信念階段」的早期階段，這表明未來幾個月可能會大幅上漲。

In the past two bull cycles, #Ethereum $ETH went parabolic when long-term holders shifted into greed mode. Right now, they’re only in the early stages of the belief phase. The big move could still be ahead! pic.twitter.com/warxPOlSFj

在過去的兩個牛市週期中，當長期持有者轉向貪婪模式時，#Ethereum $ETH 呈現拋物線走勢。目前，他們僅處於信念階段的早期階段。大動作仍可能在前面！ pic.twitter.com/warxPOLSFj

According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, The chart attached to the analysis divides Ethereum long-term holder behavior into several sentiment phases: Capitulation, Hope-Fear, Optimism-Anxiety, Belief-Denial, Euphoria, and finally, Greed. During each bull cycle, Ethereum has exhibited clear behavioral patterns among its long-term holders. As the price begins to rise, holders move from despair to cautious optimism, reflected in the shift from “Hope-Fear” to “Optimism-Anxiety.” However, the most important signals emerge as investors transition into the “Belief-Denial” phase, where they gain confidence in the price rally and begin holding with the expectation of further gains.

根據加密貨幣分析師Ali Martinez 的說法，分析所附的圖表將以太坊長期持有者的行為分為幾個情緒階段：投降、希望-恐懼、樂觀-焦慮、信仰-否認、欣快感，最後是貪婪。在每個牛市週期中，以太坊的長期持有者都表現出明顯的行為模式。隨著價格開始上漲，持有者從絕望轉向謹慎樂觀，體現在從「希望-恐懼」到「樂觀-焦慮」的轉變。然而，當投資者過渡到「信念-否認」階段時，最重要的訊號就會出現，他們對價格上漲充滿信心，並開始持有，期望進一步上漲。

Currently, the chart shows that Ethereum is in the early stages of the belief phase. This phase, historically, has preceded parabolic price movements and coincided with strong bullish momentum.

目前，圖表顯示以太坊正處於信念階段的早期階段。從歷史上看，這一階段發生在拋物線價格波動之前，並且與強勁的看漲勢頭同時發生。

Ethereum’s Early Belief Phase Signals Growth Ahead

以太坊的早期信念階段預示著未來的成長

In past Ethereum bull cycles, the transition into the greed phase—marked by widespread market euphoria and heavy profit-taking—was a key indicator of the market approaching a peak. Notably, ETH prices saw massive upward moves when long-term holders entered this phase. The chart reflects two key time periods: 2017 Bull Cycle: Ethereum transitioned from belief to greed mode, propelling prices from under $100 to over $1,400, 2021 Bull Cycle: A similar pattern saw ETH surge from $500 to a record high of $4,800.

在過去的以太坊牛市週期中，向貪婪階段的過渡（以廣泛的市場興奮和大量獲利了結為標誌）是市場接近頂峰的關鍵指標。值得注意的是，當長期持有者進入這一階段時，ETH 價格出現大幅上漲。這張圖表反映了兩個關鍵時間段：2017 年牛市週期：以太坊從信仰模式轉變為貪婪模式，推動價格從100 美元以下升至1,400 美元以上；2021 年牛市週期：類似的模式使ETH 從500 美元飆升至4,800 美元的歷史新高。

Comparing these previous bull cycles to the current market setup, long-term holders are still far from “greed mode,” as indicated by the sentiment remaining in the belief phase. This suggests that Ethereum’s biggest gains in the current cycle may still be ahead. The behavior of long-term holders is critical for understanding market trends, as it highlights the conviction of large ETH investors. When holders move into belief, they tend to accumulate tokens or avoid selling, effectively reducing the circulating supply on exchanges. This creates upward price pressure as demand for ETH grows while supply remains constrained.

將先前的牛市週期與目前的市場設定進行比較，長期持有者仍遠未達到“貪婪模式”，這一點從仍處於信念階段的情緒即可看出。這表明以太坊在當前週期中的最大漲幅可能仍在前方。長期持有者的行為對於理解市場趨勢至關重要，因為它凸顯了大型 ETH 投資者的信念。當持有者相信時，他們傾向於累積代幣或避免出售，從而有效地減少了交易所的流通供應量。由於 ETH 的需求增長而供應仍然受到限制，這造成了價格上漲的壓力。

Currently, ETH has been consolidating in a range between $1,800 and $2,200, reflecting early-stage accumulation. If this belief phase strengthens, it could signal that ETH is gearing up for its next major price movement—much like the patterns observed in 2017 and 2021. Another factor bolstering the belief phase is Ethereum’s growing role in the decentralized finance (DeFi) and real-world asset tokenization ecosystems. Institutional interest in Ethereum is rising, with major corporations exploring its network for scalability, decentralized applications, and Layer 2 solutions.

目前，ETH 一直在 1,800 美元至 2,200 美元之間盤整，反映了早期的累積。如果這種信念階段得到加強，則可能表明ETH 正在為下一個重大價格走勢做好準備——就像2017 年和2021 年觀察到的模式一樣。化金融(DeFi) 和實體經濟中日益重要的角色。機構對以太坊的興趣正在上升，各大公司都在探索其網路的可擴展性、去中心化應用程式和第 2 層解決方案。

The combination of institutional demand, shrinking exchange reserves, and strong long-term holder sentiment is creating a bullish foundation for Ethereum. This backdrop aligns with the belief phase, supporting the narrative of a sustained upward trajectory.

機構需求、外匯儲備萎縮以及強勁的長期持有者情緒相結合，正在為以太坊奠定看漲基礎。這一背景與信念階段一致，支持持續上升軌跡的敘述。

Will Ethereum Follow Its Historical Path?

以太坊會遵循其歷史軌跡嗎？

While historical trends do not guarantee future outcomes, the parallels between previous bull cycles and the current phase are striking. Long-term holders remain a crucial component of Ethereum’s market structure. Their behavior, as outlined in the chart, suggests that Ethereum has yet to reach the point of euphoria and greed that typically marks a bull market top.

雖然歷史趨勢並不能保證未來的結果，但先前的牛市週期與當前階段之間的相似之處是驚人的。長期持有者仍然是以太坊市場結構的重要組成部分。正如圖表中概述的那樣，他們的行為表明以太坊尚未達到通常標誌著牛市頂部的欣快和貪婪的程度。

If this historical pattern holds, the “big move” for ETH could be on the horizon as holders move deeper into the belief phase and eventually into greed mode. Traders and investors are watching closely for any breakout signals, particularly as ETH’s price builds momentum toward key psychological levels.

如果這種歷史模式成立，隨著持有者進一步進入信念階段並最終進入貪婪模式，ETH 的「大變動」可能即將到來。交易員和投資者正在密切關注任何突破信號，特別是當 ETH 的價格向關鍵心理水平建立動力時。

The early belief phase in Ethereum long-term holder activity points to a market still in its growth stage, with significant upside potential. As history has shown, when holders transition into greed, parabolic moves have followed, propelling ETH to new highs. Investors and analysts alike will be watching for further signals as Ethereum’s bull cycle progresses.For now, all signs suggest the big move for Ethereum may still be ahead.

以太坊長期持有者活動的早期信念顯示市場仍處於成長階段，具有巨大的上行潛力。正如歷史所顯示的，當持有者變得貪婪時，拋物線走勢就會隨之而來，將 ETH 推向新高。隨著以太坊牛市週期的進展，投資者和分析師都將關注進一步的訊號。