以太坊 (ETH) ETF 批准几率激增，ETH 飙升近 18%

彭博社分析师和 Polymarket 大幅提高了现货以太坊 ETF（交易所交易基金）获得批准的几率，以太坊飙升近 18%

Ethereum prices surged almost 18% as Bloomberg analysts and a Polymarket contract sharply increased the odds of spot Ethereum ETFs (exchange-traded funds) being approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this month.

彭博社分析师和 Polymarket 合约大幅增加了现货以太坊 ETF（交易所交易基金）本月获得美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 批准的几率，以太坊价格飙升近 18%。

This comes after the SEC asked exchange applicants to update their so-called 19b-4 filings on an accelerated basis, three people familiar with the matter told CoinDesk.

三名知情人士告诉 CoinDesk，在此之前，SEC 要求交易所申请人加速更新其所谓的 19b-4 备案文件。

“James Seyffart and I are increasing our odds of spot ether ETF approval to 75% (up from 25%),” Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said in a May 20 X post. This follows “chatter” Balchunas heard yesterday afternoon that might suggest the “SEC could be doing a 180 on this (increasingly political issue),” he added.

彭博 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 在 5 月 20 日的一篇文章中表示：“James Seyffart 和我正在将现货以太坊 ETF 获得批准的几率提高到 75%（之前为 25%）。”巴尔丘纳斯昨天下午听到的“闲言碎语”可能表明“美国证券交易委员会可能会在这个（日益政治化的问题）上做出 180 度转变”，他补充道。

A Polymarket contract asking whether Ethereum ETFs will be approved by May 31 also jumped from 10 cents to 59 cents, representing a 59% chance of these investment products being approved by the end of the month. Meanwhile, another contract asking if ETH ETFs will be approved by Jun. 30 is trading at 69 cents.

一份询问以太坊 ETF 是否会在 5 月 31 日之前获得批准的 Polymarket 合约也从 10 美分跃升至 59 美分，这意味着这些投资产品在月底获得批准的可能性为 59%。与此同时，另一份询问 ETH ETF 是否会在 6 月 30 日之前获得批准的合约目前交易价格为 69 美分。

Ethereum price today is $3,654.03 at the time of writing after surging 17.8% in the past 24 hours.

截至撰写本文时，以太坊价格在过去 24 小时内飙升 17.8%，目前价格为 3,654.03 美元。

CoinDesk reported that exchanges that would list and trade ETH ETFS were suddenly asked by the SEC to update their 19b-4 filings, a development it said suggested the regulator might be preparing to approve applications ahead of Thursday, when it’s expected to decide on an application to launch an Ethereuem ETF by fund manager VanEck.

CoinDesk 报道称，SEC 突然要求将上市和交易 ETH ETF 的交易所更新其 19b-4 备案文件，该进展表明监管机构可能准备在周四之前批准申请，预计届时将就申请做出决定由基金经理 VanEck 推出以太坊 ETF。

Although this development is considered a positive development towards ETH ETF approvals, the SEC could still reject or delay them.

尽管这一进展被认为是 ETH ETF 批准的积极进展，但 SEC 仍可能拒绝或推迟批准。

“It appears as though some of the politics of this may have changed rapidly,” Balchunas told The Block. He added that crypto seems to be becoming a more politicized issue ahead of the upcoming presidential election.

“看来这其中的一些政治因素可能已经迅速发生了变化，”巴尔丘纳斯告诉《The Block》。他补充说，在即将到来的总统选举之前，加密货币似乎正在成为一个更加政治化的问题。

This theory is backed by a statement made by former US President Donald Trump at a wine and dine event for investors of his NFT collection. Trump said that he is a friendlier candidate to the crypto industry, and revealed that he accepts campaign donations in digital currencies.

这一理论得到了美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普在为他的 NFT 藏品投资者举办的一场美酒佳肴活动上发表的声明的支持。特朗普表示，他是对加密货币行业更友好的候选人，并透露他接受数字货币的竞选捐款。

Current US President Joe Biden and his administration have developed an anti-crypto reputation. This is mainly due to the regulation by enforcement approach employed by SEC Chair Gary Gensler.

现任美国总统乔·拜登和他的政府已经建立了反加密货币的声誉。这主要归功于 SEC 主席 Gary Gensler 采用的强制监管方式。

Many believed that the SEC under Gensler would reject Ethereum ETF applications given his battle against the crypto sector.

许多人认为，考虑到 Gensler 与加密货币行业的斗争，Gensler 领导下的 SEC 会拒绝以太坊 ETF 申请。

Things are taking a turn for the better on Spot #ethereum ETF approvals this week. Upping our odds to 75%. https://t.co/3WJ8kx9d8k

本周，#ethereum ETF 现货批准情况正在好转。将我们的胜算提高到 75%。 https://t.co/3WJ8kx9d8k

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) May 20, 2024

— 詹姆斯·塞法特 (@JSeyff) 2024 年 5 月 20 日

That viewpoint is now being reassessed as market optimism is buoyed by the new developments. The overall market cap of the crypto industry soared almost 8% to $2.61 trillion in the past 24 hours, while the meme coin sector bettered that by half a percentage point to reach a market cap of $57.8 billion.

随着新事态发展提振市场乐观情绪，这种观点现在正在被重新评估。过去 24 小时内，加密货币行业的整体市值飙升近 8%，达到 2.61 万亿美元，而模因币行业的市值则提高了半个百分点，达到 578 亿美元的市值。

Crypto ICOs are performing strongly as well, with some analysts recommending allocating funds to red-hot new meme coin presales including Dogeverse (DOGEVERSE) and Sealana (SEAL).

加密货币 ICO 也表现强劲，一些分析师建议将资金分配给热门的新 meme 代币预售，包括 Dogeverse (DOGEVERSE) 和 Sealana (SEAL)。