以太幣 (ETH) ETF 批准幾率激增，ETH 飆升近 18%

彭博社分析師和 Polymarket 大幅提高了現貨以太坊 ETF（交易所交易基金）獲得批准的幾率，以太坊飆升近 18%

Ethereum prices surged almost 18% as Bloomberg analysts and a Polymarket contract sharply increased the odds of spot Ethereum ETFs (exchange-traded funds) being approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this month.

彭博社分析師和 Polymarket 合約大幅增加了現貨以太坊 ETF（交易所交易基金）本月獲得美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 批准的幾率，以太坊價格飆升近 18%。

This comes after the SEC asked exchange applicants to update their so-called 19b-4 filings on an accelerated basis, three people familiar with the matter told CoinDesk.

三名知情人士告訴 CoinDesk，在此之前，SEC 要求交易所申請人加速更新其所謂的 19b-4 備案文件。

“James Seyffart and I are increasing our odds of spot ether ETF approval to 75% (up from 25%),” Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said in a May 20 X post. This follows “chatter” Balchunas heard yesterday afternoon that might suggest the “SEC could be doing a 180 on this (increasingly political issue),” he added.

彭博 ETF 分析師 Eric Balchunas 在 5 月 20 日的一篇文章中表示：“James Seyffart 和我正在將現貨以太坊 ETF 獲得批准的幾率提高到 75%（之前為 25%）。”巴爾丘納斯昨天下午聽到的“閒言碎語”可能表明“美國證券交易委員會可能會在這個（日益政治化的問題）上做出 180 度轉變”，他補充道。

A Polymarket contract asking whether Ethereum ETFs will be approved by May 31 also jumped from 10 cents to 59 cents, representing a 59% chance of these investment products being approved by the end of the month. Meanwhile, another contract asking if ETH ETFs will be approved by Jun. 30 is trading at 69 cents.

一份詢問以太坊 ETF 是否會在 5 月 31 日之前獲得批准的 Polymarket 合約也從 10 美分躍升至 59 美分，這意味著這些投資產品在月底獲得批准的可能性為 59%。同時，另一份詢問 ETH ETF 是否會在 6 月 30 日之前獲得批准的合約目前交易價格為 69 美分。

Ethereum price today is $3,654.03 at the time of writing after surging 17.8% in the past 24 hours.

截至撰寫本文時，以太幣價格在過去 24 小時內飆升 17.8%，目前價格為 3,654.03 美元。

CoinDesk reported that exchanges that would list and trade ETH ETFS were suddenly asked by the SEC to update their 19b-4 filings, a development it said suggested the regulator might be preparing to approve applications ahead of Thursday, when it’s expected to decide on an application to launch an Ethereuem ETF by fund manager VanEck.

CoinDesk 報告稱，SEC 突然要求將上市和交易 ETH ETF 的交易所更新其 19b-4 備案文件，該進展表明監管機構可能準備在周四之前批准申請，預計屆時將就申請做出決定由基金經理VanEck推出以太坊ETF。

Although this development is considered a positive development towards ETH ETF approvals, the SEC could still reject or delay them.

儘管這一進展被認為是 ETH ETF 批准的積極進展，但 SEC 仍可能拒絕或推遲批准。

“It appears as though some of the politics of this may have changed rapidly,” Balchunas told The Block. He added that crypto seems to be becoming a more politicized issue ahead of the upcoming presidential election.

「看來這其中的一些政治因素可能已經迅速發生了變化，」巴爾丘納斯告訴《The Block》。他補充說，在即將到來的總統選舉之前，加密貨幣似乎正在成為一個更政治化的問題。

This theory is backed by a statement made by former US President Donald Trump at a wine and dine event for investors of his NFT collection. Trump said that he is a friendlier candidate to the crypto industry, and revealed that he accepts campaign donations in digital currencies.

這一理論得到了美國前總統唐納德·川普在為他的 NFT 藏品投資者舉辦的一場美酒佳餚活動上發表的聲明的支持。川普表示，他是對加密貨幣行業更友好的候選人，並透露他接受數位貨幣的競選捐款。

Current US President Joe Biden and his administration have developed an anti-crypto reputation. This is mainly due to the regulation by enforcement approach employed by SEC Chair Gary Gensler.

現任美國總統拜登和他的政府已經建立了反加密貨幣的聲譽。這主要是由於 SEC 主席 Gary Gensler 採用的強制監管方式。

Many believed that the SEC under Gensler would reject Ethereum ETF applications given his battle against the crypto sector.

許多人認為，考慮到 Gensler 與加密貨幣領域的鬥爭，Gensler 領導下的 SEC 會拒絕以太坊 ETF 申請。

Things are taking a turn for the better on Spot #ethereum ETF approvals this week. Upping our odds to 75%. https://t.co/3WJ8kx9d8k

本週，#ethereum ETF 現貨批准情況正在改善。將我們的勝算提高到 75%。 https://t.co/3WJ8kx9d8k

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) May 20, 2024

— 詹姆斯·塞法特 (@JSeyff) 2024 年 5 月 20 日

That viewpoint is now being reassessed as market optimism is buoyed by the new developments. The overall market cap of the crypto industry soared almost 8% to $2.61 trillion in the past 24 hours, while the meme coin sector bettered that by half a percentage point to reach a market cap of $57.8 billion.

隨著新事態發展提振市場樂觀情緒，這種觀點現在正被重新評估。在過去 24 小時內，加密貨幣產業的整體市值飆升近 8%，達到 2.61 兆美元，而迷因幣產業的市值則提高了半個百分點，達到 578 億美元的市值。

Crypto ICOs are performing strongly as well, with some analysts recommending allocating funds to red-hot new meme coin presales including Dogeverse (DOGEVERSE) and Sealana (SEAL).

加密貨幣 ICO 也表現強勁，一些分析師建議將資金分配給熱門的新 meme 代幣預售，包括 Dogeverse (DOGEVERSE) 和 Sealana (SEAL)。