以太坊价格是否会出现大幅上涨？

本月到目前为止，以太坊原生加密货币实现了大幅上涨。然而，许多分析师认为，与一些竞争对手相比，该公司的表现不佳。

Ethereum price enjoyed a moderate uptick so far this month. But many feel that it has underperformed compared to some of its rivals. Could this be about to change?

本月到目前为止，以太坊价格略有上涨。但许多人认为，与一些竞争对手相比，它的表现不佳。这会改变吗？

There are multiple signs that point to the possibility of a major ETH rally. For starters, Ethereum futures open interest recently soared to its highest level in its entire history. It peaked at $21.22 billion in the last 24 hours.

有多种迹象表明 ETH 可能会出现大幅上涨。首先，以太坊期货的未平仓合约最近飙升至其历史上的最高水平。过去 24 小时内最高达到 212.2 亿美元。

This is not the first time that ETH futures open interest surged to record highs. But it is interesting to note that ETH has been experiencing higher open interest in 2024 compared to the previous bull run.

这并不是 ETH 期货持仓量第一次飙升至历史新高。但有趣的是，与之前的牛市相比，ETH 在 2024 年的未平仓合约量一直在增加。

For example, its previous peak was $17.09 billion at the end of May 2024. This was higher than its $13.08 billion peak in November 2021.

例如，其之前的峰值为 2024 年 5 月末的 170.9 亿美元。这高于 2021 年 11 月的 130.8 亿美元峰值。

But how will this ETH open interest surge affect the cryptocurrency? Well, open interest is a double-edged sword because it could not only indicate demand but also sell pressure in the form of shorts.

但 ETH 持仓量激增将如何影响加密货币呢？嗯，未平仓合约是一把双刃剑，因为它不仅可以表明需求，还可以表明空头形式的抛售压力。

According to Coinglass, ETH shorts were notably higher than longs in the last 3 days. This indicates rising expectations of sell pressure after the cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum ground to a halt during the weekend.

根据 Coinglass 的数据，过去 3 天，ETH 空头数量明显高于多头数量。这表明在加密货币的看涨势头在周末陷入停滞后，抛售压力的预期不断上升。

Will ETH Price Be Subject to a Pullback or Another Rally?

ETH 价格会回调还是再次上涨？

It is clear why some would expect a bearish outcome judging by ETH’s recent price action. Zooming out reveals that the cryptocurrency has been trading in a wedge pattern. It recently retested this pattern’s descending resistance line.

从 ETH 最近的价格走势来看，很明显为什么有些人预计会出现看跌结果。缩小显示加密货币一直在以楔形模式进行交易。它最近重新测试了该模式的下降阻力线。

Bullish momentum went on recess after previously achieving a significant upside this month. ETH’s recent resistance retest indicates that the cryptocurrency could be headed for some downside.

在本月实现大幅上涨后，看涨势头陷入衰退。 ETH 最近的阻力重新测试表明该加密货币可能会出现一些下行趋势。

A substantial pullback could see Ethereum price dip below $3,000 and possibly to $2,600 in case of a major crash. This could eventually lead to a retest of the support line.

大幅回调可能导致以太坊价格跌破 3,000 美元，如果发生重大崩盘，可能跌至 2,600 美元。这最终可能导致重新测试支撑线。

While some profit-taking was observed, there were significant reasons to also expect a potential bullish breakout from the consolidation zone.

虽然观察到了一些获利了结，但也有充分的理由预计可能会突破盘整区。

One of the main reasons was that Ethereum ETFs kicked off this week with positive flows. Roughly $43.2 million worth of inflows was recorded during Monday’s trading session.

主要原因之一是以太坊 ETF 本周启动并带来积极的资金流入。周一交易时段录得约 4,320 万美元的资金流入。

ETFs have had a significant impact on market direction recently, especially for Bitcoin. And ETFs are unlikely to buy unless they anticipate some upside. A breakout from the current resistance level could validate the positive ETF flows.

ETF 最近对市场方向产生了重大影响，尤其是比特币。除非预期会有上涨，否则 ETF 不太可能买入。突破当前阻力位可能会验证 ETF 的积极流动。

However, there was another major reason for bullish expectations. Bitcoin dominance dipped during the weekend after topping out at 61.53% last week. It hovered at 59.01% at the time of writing.

然而，看涨预期还有另一个主要原因。比特币的主导地位在上周达到 61.53% 的峰值后，在周末有所下降。截至撰写本文时，该比例徘徊在 59.01%。

If Bitcoin dominance continues dipping, it could pave the way for more liquidity flows into ETH. And it is possible that an Ethereum price rally could be on the cards if the Bitcoin dominance continues declining.

如果比特币的主导地位继续下降，可能会为更多的流动性流入 ETH 铺平道路。如果比特币的主导地位继续下降，以太坊价格可能会上涨。

Finally, large holder flow data from IntoTheBlock revealed that inflows into large accounts were at 4 week highs.

最后，来自 IntoTheBlock 的大户流量数据显示，大户的资金流入达到 4 周以来的最高点。

ETH large holder inflows peaked at 714,430 coins as of 25 November. A sign that there was strong demand from whales despite the recent resistance retest.

截至 11 月 25 日，ETH 大户流入量达到峰值 714,430 个代币。这表明尽管最近出现了阻力，但鲸鱼的需求依然强劲。

Large holder outflows also registered a significant surge on 25 November. However, they peaked at 603,040 ETH which was slightly lower than inflows.

11 月 25 日，大户资金流出也大幅增加。然而，峰值为 603,040 ETH，略低于流入量。

In other words, whale demand was slightly higher than whale sell pressure. And a strong demand resurgence could potentially push ETH price close to the $4,000 before it encounters its next major resistance level.

换句话说，鲸鱼的需求略高于鲸鱼的抛售压力。强劲的需求复苏可能会推动 ETH 价格接近 4,000 美元，然后再遇到下一个主要阻力位。