2025 年以太坊 (ETH) 价格预测：潜在回报的过山车之旅

以太坊（ETH）在2024年经历了好坏参半的一年，价格、市场情绪和网络升级都出现了大幅波动。强势开局后

Ethereum (ETH) had a varied 2024 with significant price movements, shifting market sentiment, and crucial network upgrades. After a strong start, ETH followed a familiar 2023 pattern, rising nearly 48% to $3,390 in December.

以太坊 (ETH) 的 2024 年经历了多变的一年，价格大幅波动，市场情绪不断变化，网络也进行了重要升级。在强劲开局后，ETH 遵循了熟悉的 2023 年模式，12 月上涨近 48% 至 3,390 美元。

A Bullish Q1, But Challenges Remain

第一季度看涨，但挑战依然存在

Ethereum price trajectory in 2024 mirrored the volatility seen in previous years. After reaching its highest point of the year in late Q1, ETH faced a decline into Q2, where it found support at $2,817. It surged again in May but then fell into a downtrend that extended into Q3, following the typical slower growth seen in the crypto market during the holiday season.

2024 年以太坊价格走势反映了前几年的波动性。在第一季度末达到年内最高点后，ETH 进入第二季度面临下跌，并在 2,817 美元找到支撑。它在 5 月份再次飙升，但随后陷入下降趋势，并延续到第三季度，继假期期间加密货币市场典型的增长放缓之后。

However, Ethereum comeback began in Q4, with the coin rising over 50% between November 5 and December 19, largely driven by optimism around US presidential election outcomes. Despite the bullish sentiment, Ethereum still faces headwinds, particularly concerning the expectations of a $5,000 price target in 2024. The anticipated ETH exchange-traded fund (ETF) launch and a generally positive market cycle were not enough to push Ethereum past these challenges, especially the decline in on-chain revenue and inflationary pressures.

然而，以太坊在第四季度开始卷土重来，在 11 月 5 日至 12 月 19 日期间上涨了 50% 以上，这主要是受到对美国总统选举结果的乐观情绪推动。尽管看涨情绪，以太坊仍然面临阻力，特别是关于 2024 年 5,000 美元价格目标的预期。预期的 ETH 交易所交易基金 (ETF) 推出和总体积极的市场周期不足以推动以太坊克服这些挑战，尤其是链上收入下降和通胀压力。

A Layer 2 Revolution with the Dencun Upgrade

Dencun 升级带来的 Layer 2 革命

A major milestone for Ethereum in 2024 was the Dencun upgrade, which went live on March 13. This upgrade incorporated features from nine Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs), with the highlight being EIP-4844, also known as proto-danksharding. This introduced “blobs,” which provide temporary storage space for Layer 2 (L2) networks, significantly improving scalability by reducing the storage and costs of processing transactions.

以太坊 2024 年的一个重要里程碑是于 3 月 13 日上线的 Dencun 升级。这次升级融合了九个以太坊改进提案 (EIP) 的功能，其中亮点是 EIP-4844，也称为原始 danksharding。这引入了“blob”，它为第 2 层 (L2) 网络提供临时存储空间，通过减少存储和处理事务的成本来显着提高可扩展性。

While Layer 2 solutions increased transaction speeds and reduced fees, the introduction of blobs reduced costs on Ethereum network by over 90%, positioning the platform as a competitive player in the blockchain ecosystem. Notably, L2s like Base saw transaction volume increase by 525% following the Dencun upgrade. However, the improvements weren’t without complications, as Ethereum price was affected by the “ultrasound money” narrative, which faces challenges due to decreasing ETH burn rates and inflationary pressures.

虽然 Layer 2 解决方案提高了交易速度并降低了费用，但 blob 的引入使以太坊网络的成本降低了 90% 以上，使该平台成为区块链生态系统中具有竞争力的参与者。值得注意的是，在 Dencun 升级后，像 Base 这样的 L2 交易量增加了 525%。然而，这些改进并非一帆风顺，因为以太坊价格受到“超声波货币”叙事的影响，由于 ETH 销毁率下降和通胀压力，它面临着挑战。

The Inflation Woes and Impact on ETH Price

通胀困境及其对 ETH 价格的影响

Ethereum deflationary “ultrasound money” narrative, which was bolstered by the network burn mechanism introduced during the London hard fork in August 2021, is facing obstacles in 2024. The burn mechanism, designed to reduce ETH circulating supply over time, was undermined by the Dencun upgrade, which lowered fees across the Ethereum network, reducing stakers’ revenues and the burn rate. This shift has reignited concerns about Ethereum inflationary nature, which in turn has impacted its price, especially against competitors like Bitcoin and Solana.

以太坊通货紧缩的“超声波货币”叙事受到 2021 年 8 月伦敦硬分叉期间引入的网络销毁机制的支持，但在 2024 年面临障碍。旨在随着时间的推移减少 ETH 循环供应的销毁机制被 Dencun 破坏了。升级，降低了整个以太坊网络的费用，减少了质押者的收入和烧钱率。这一转变重新引发了人们对以太坊通胀性质的担忧，这反过来又影响了其价格，尤其是相对于比特币和 Solana 等竞争对手。

In addition, the introduction of Uniswap decentralized exchange (DEX) plans to launch its own Layer 2 solution in 2025 could reduce Ethereum revenue from transaction fees, potentially exacerbating the inflationary concerns. Uniswap shift to its own Layer 2 could cost Ethereum up to $600 million annually in lost revenue, further challenging its market performance.

此外，Uniswap 去中心化交易所（DEX）计划在 2025 年推出自己的 Layer 2 解决方案，这可能会减少以太坊的交易费用收入，从而可能加剧通胀担忧。 Uniswap 转向自己的 Layer 2 可能会让以太坊每年损失高达 6 亿美元的收入，进一步挑战其市场表现。

Ethereum ETFs: A Game Changer for Institutional Adoption

以太坊 ETF：机构采用的游戏规则改变者

2024 also marked the approval of US spot Ethereum ETFs, following a delay from the SEC that caused initial speculation around Ethereum regulatory future. After the approval of nine Ethereum ETFs on July 23, Ethereum saw significant net inflows, totaling around $3 billion between November and December. These funds have been critical in boosting the value of Ethereum and may continue to do so in 2025, especially if the SEC allows staking within these ETFs.

2024 年也标志着美国现货以太坊 ETF 的批准，此前美国证券交易委员会的延迟引发了人们对以太坊监管未来的初步猜测。在 7 月 23 日批准 9 只以太坊 ETF 后，以太坊出现了显着的净流入，11 月至 12 月期间总计约 30 亿美元。这些基金对于提升以太坊的价值至关重要，并且可能会在 2025 年继续发挥作用，特别是如果 SEC 允许在这些 ETF 中进行质押的话。

The potential for Ethereum ETFs to include staking could further enhance the appeal of Ethereum as an investment asset, driving up its price. Industry experts predict that such a move could significantly increase Ethereum market value in 2025, especially as staking in ETFs gains traction among institutional investors.

以太坊 ETF 包含质押的潜力可能会进一步增强以太坊作为投资资产的吸引力，从而推高其价格。行业专家预测，这一举措可能会在 2025 年大幅增加以太坊市场价值，尤其是在 ETF 权益受到机构投资者青睐的情况下。

Ethereum Road to 2025: The Pectra Upgrade and Market Outlook

以太坊通往 2025 年之路：Pectra 升级和市场展望

Looking ahead to 2025, Ethereum key upgrade will be Pectra, which is expected to introduce a range of improvements, including enhancements to wallet experiences, staking rewards, smart contract speeds, and scalability. Pectra will roll out in two phases, with phase one slated for 2025. Major features include Blob expansion, an upgrade to Ethereum zero-knowledge proof capabilities, and significant improvements to staking.

展望 2025 年，以太坊的关键升级将是 Pectra，预计将引入一系列改进，包括增强钱包体验、质押奖励、智能合约速度和可扩展性。 Pectra 将分两个阶段推出，第一阶段计划于 2025 年推出。主要功能包括 Blob 扩展、以太坊零知识证明功能的升级以及对质押的重大改进。

The success of Ethereum in 2025 will largely depend on the widespread adoption of Layer 2 solutions, the success of Ethereum ETFs, and the market response to the ongoing network upgrades. If Ethereum can sustain momentum and overcome challenges related to inflation, it may be able to break its all-time high and push toward the $7,000 mark by year end.

以太坊在 2025 年的成功将在很大程度上取决于 Layer 2 解决方案的广泛采用、以太坊 ETF 的成功以及市场对正在进行的网络升级的反应。如果以太坊能够保持势头并克服与通胀相关的挑战，它可能能够在年底突破历史新高并推向 7,000 美元大关。

Key Metrics to Watch in 2025

2025 年值得关注的关键指标

Several on-

几个上