2025 年以太坊 (ETH) 價格預測：潛在回報的過山車之旅

以太坊（ETH）在2024年經歷了好壞參半的一年，價格、市場情緒和網路升級都出現了大幅波動。強勢開局後

Ethereum (ETH) had a varied 2024 with significant price movements, shifting market sentiment, and crucial network upgrades. After a strong start, ETH followed a familiar 2023 pattern, rising nearly 48% to $3,390 in December.

以太坊 (ETH) 的 2024 年經歷了多變的一年，價格大幅波動，市場情緒不斷變化，網路也進行了重要升級。在強勁開局後，ETH 遵循了熟悉的 2023 年模式，12 月上漲近 48% 至 3,390 美元。

A Bullish Q1, But Challenges Remain

第一季看漲，但挑戰依然存在

Ethereum price trajectory in 2024 mirrored the volatility seen in previous years. After reaching its highest point of the year in late Q1, ETH faced a decline into Q2, where it found support at $2,817. It surged again in May but then fell into a downtrend that extended into Q3, following the typical slower growth seen in the crypto market during the holiday season.

2024 年以太幣價格走勢反映了前幾年的波動性。在第一季末達到年內最高點後，ETH 進入第二季度面臨下跌，並在 2,817 美元找到支撐。它在 5 月再次飆升，但隨後陷入下降趨勢，並延續到第三季度，繼假期期間加密貨幣市場典型的成長放緩之後。

However, Ethereum comeback began in Q4, with the coin rising over 50% between November 5 and December 19, largely driven by optimism around US presidential election outcomes. Despite the bullish sentiment, Ethereum still faces headwinds, particularly concerning the expectations of a $5,000 price target in 2024. The anticipated ETH exchange-traded fund (ETF) launch and a generally positive market cycle were not enough to push Ethereum past these challenges, especially the decline in on-chain revenue and inflationary pressures.

然而，以太坊在第四季度開始捲土重來，在 11 月 5 日至 12 月 19 日期間上漲了 50% 以上，這主要是受到對美國總統選舉結果的樂觀情緒推動。儘管看漲情緒，以太坊仍然面臨阻力，特別是關於 2024 年 5,000 美元價格目標的預期。鏈上收入下降和通膨壓力。

A Layer 2 Revolution with the Dencun Upgrade

Dencun 升級帶來的 Layer 2 革命

A major milestone for Ethereum in 2024 was the Dencun upgrade, which went live on March 13. This upgrade incorporated features from nine Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs), with the highlight being EIP-4844, also known as proto-danksharding. This introduced “blobs,” which provide temporary storage space for Layer 2 (L2) networks, significantly improving scalability by reducing the storage and costs of processing transactions.

以太坊 2024 年的一個重要里程碑是於 3 月 13 日上線的 Dencun 升級。這引入了“blob”，它為第 2 層 (L2) 網路提供臨時儲存空間，透過減少儲存和處理事務的成本來顯著提高可擴展性。

While Layer 2 solutions increased transaction speeds and reduced fees, the introduction of blobs reduced costs on Ethereum network by over 90%, positioning the platform as a competitive player in the blockchain ecosystem. Notably, L2s like Base saw transaction volume increase by 525% following the Dencun upgrade. However, the improvements weren’t without complications, as Ethereum price was affected by the “ultrasound money” narrative, which faces challenges due to decreasing ETH burn rates and inflationary pressures.

雖然 Layer 2 解決方案提高了交易速度並降低了費用，但 blob 的引入使以太坊網路的成本降低了 90% 以上，使該平台成為區塊鏈生態系統中具有競爭力的參與者。值得注意的是，在 Dencun 升級後，像 Base 這樣的 L2 交易量增加了 525%。然而，這些改進並非一帆風順，因為以太坊價格受到「超音波貨幣」敘事的影響，由於 ETH 銷毀率下降和通膨壓力，它面臨挑戰。

The Inflation Woes and Impact on ETH Price

通膨困境及其對 ETH 價格的影響

Ethereum deflationary “ultrasound money” narrative, which was bolstered by the network burn mechanism introduced during the London hard fork in August 2021, is facing obstacles in 2024. The burn mechanism, designed to reduce ETH circulating supply over time, was undermined by the Dencun upgrade, which lowered fees across the Ethereum network, reducing stakers’ revenues and the burn rate. This shift has reignited concerns about Ethereum inflationary nature, which in turn has impacted its price, especially against competitors like Bitcoin and Solana.

以太坊通貨緊縮的「超音波貨幣」敘事受到2021 年8 月倫敦硬分叉期間引入的網路銷毀機制的支持，但在2024 年面臨障礙。 Dencun 破壞了。這一轉變重新引發了人們對以太坊通膨性質的擔憂，這反過來又影響了其價格，尤其是相對於比特幣和 Solana 等競爭對手。

In addition, the introduction of Uniswap decentralized exchange (DEX) plans to launch its own Layer 2 solution in 2025 could reduce Ethereum revenue from transaction fees, potentially exacerbating the inflationary concerns. Uniswap shift to its own Layer 2 could cost Ethereum up to $600 million annually in lost revenue, further challenging its market performance.

此外，Uniswap 去中心化交易所（DEX）計劃在 2025 年推出自己的 Layer 2 解決方案，這可能會減少以太坊的交易費用收入，這可能會加劇通膨擔憂。 Uniswap 轉向自己的 Layer 2 可能會讓以太坊每年損失高達 6 億美元的收入，進一步挑戰其市場表現。

Ethereum ETFs: A Game Changer for Institutional Adoption

以太坊 ETF：機構採用的遊戲規則改變者

2024 also marked the approval of US spot Ethereum ETFs, following a delay from the SEC that caused initial speculation around Ethereum regulatory future. After the approval of nine Ethereum ETFs on July 23, Ethereum saw significant net inflows, totaling around $3 billion between November and December. These funds have been critical in boosting the value of Ethereum and may continue to do so in 2025, especially if the SEC allows staking within these ETFs.

2024 年也標誌著美國現貨以太坊 ETF 的批准，此前美國證券交易委員會的延遲引發了人們對以太坊監管未來的初步猜測。在 7 月 23 日批准 9 檔以太坊 ETF 後，以太坊出現了顯著的淨流入，11 月至 12 月期間總計約 30 億美元。這些基金對於提升以太坊的價值至關重要，並可能在 2025 年繼續發揮作用，特別是如果 SEC 允許在這些 ETF 中進行質押的話。

The potential for Ethereum ETFs to include staking could further enhance the appeal of Ethereum as an investment asset, driving up its price. Industry experts predict that such a move could significantly increase Ethereum market value in 2025, especially as staking in ETFs gains traction among institutional investors.

以太坊 ETF 包含質押的潛力可能會進一步增強以太坊作為投資資產的吸引力，從而推高其價格。產業專家預測，這項舉措可能會在 2025 年大幅增加以太坊市場價值，尤其是在機構投資者對 ETF 進行投資的情況下。

Ethereum Road to 2025: The Pectra Upgrade and Market Outlook

以太坊通往 2025 年之路：Pectra 升級與市場展望

Looking ahead to 2025, Ethereum key upgrade will be Pectra, which is expected to introduce a range of improvements, including enhancements to wallet experiences, staking rewards, smart contract speeds, and scalability. Pectra will roll out in two phases, with phase one slated for 2025. Major features include Blob expansion, an upgrade to Ethereum zero-knowledge proof capabilities, and significant improvements to staking.

展望 2025 年，以太坊的關鍵升級將是 Pectra，預計將引入一系列改進，包括增強錢包體驗、質押獎勵、智能合約速度和可擴展性。 Pectra 將分兩個階段推出，第一階段計劃於 2025 年推出。

The success of Ethereum in 2025 will largely depend on the widespread adoption of Layer 2 solutions, the success of Ethereum ETFs, and the market response to the ongoing network upgrades. If Ethereum can sustain momentum and overcome challenges related to inflation, it may be able to break its all-time high and push toward the $7,000 mark by year end.

以太坊在 2025 年的成功將在很大程度上取決於 Layer 2 解決方案的廣泛採用、以太坊 ETF 的成功以及市場對正在進行的網路升級的反應。如果以太坊能夠保持勢頭並克服與通膨相關的挑戰，它可能能夠在年底突破歷史新高並推向 7,000 美元大關。

Key Metrics to Watch in 2025

2025 年值得關注的關鍵指標

Several on-

幾個上