以太坊（ETH）价格预测：ETH 能否跑赢比特币（BTC）？

以太坊 [ETH] 迄今为止无法跟上比特币 [BTC] 持续上涨势头的步伐。虽然比特币创下了历史新高

Bitcoin [BTC] has led the cryptocurrency market throughout 2023, reaching new all-time highs and outperforming most other digital assets.

比特币 [BTC] 在 2023 年一直引领加密货币市场，创下历史新高，表现优于大多数其他数字资产。

However, some analysts believe that Ethereum [ETH] is preparing for a massive breakout that could see it outperforming BTC in the coming months.

然而，一些分析师认为，以太坊 [ETH] 正在为大规模突破做准备，可能会在未来几个月内超越 BTC。

One such analyst, known as Ali, recently highlighted several indicators that, according to him, are setting the stage for ETH to “outperform BTC soon.”

一位名叫 Ali 的分析师最近强调了几个指标，据他称，这些指标正在为 ETH“很快超越 BTC”奠定基础。

Among these indicators is the “alt season indicator,” which has historically signaled periods where altcoins, led by Ethereum, outpace Bitcoin.

这些指标中包括“山寨币季节指标”，该指标在历史上曾表明以以太坊为首的山寨币超过比特币的时期。

In the current market cycle, this phase has yet to occur, presenting a potential opportunity for ETH to lead the market.

在当前的市场周期中，这一阶段尚未出现，这为 ETH 提供了引领市场的潜在机会。

Furthermore, Ali also pointed to the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) metric as a key indicator for Ethereum’s future performance.

此外，阿里还指出MVRV（市场价值与已实现价值）指标是以太坊未来表现的关键指标。

The MVRV metric essentially measures the ratio between the market value and realized value of an asset, providing insight into whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued.

MVRV 指标本质上衡量资产的市场价值与已实现价值之间的比率，从而深入了解资产是否被高估或低估。

According to Ali, when Ethereum’s MVRV Momentum crosses its 180-day moving average (MA), it has historically signaled a period of outperformance for the cryptocurrency.

Ali 表示，当以太坊的 MVRV 动量突破 180 天移动平均线 (MA) 时，历史上就标志着加密货币表现优异的时期。

While ETH's price recently rallied from $2400 to $2800, this cross has yet to occur, suggesting further upside potential.

虽然 ETH 的价格最近从 2400 美元上涨至 2800 美元，但这种交叉尚未发生，表明还有进一步的上涨潜力。

Highlighting another crucial observation, the analyst noted that investors have shifted from distributing to accumulating ETH, with over $147 million in ETH entering spot ETFs.

这位分析师强调了另一个重要观察结果，指出投资者已从分配 ETH 转向积累 ETH，其中超过 1.47 亿美元的 ETH 进入了现货 ETF。

Additionally, Ethereum whales have been spotted purchasing over $1.40 billion in ETH, further bolstering Ali’s bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency’s price action.

此外，人们发现以太坊鲸鱼购买了超过 14 亿美元的 ETH，这进一步增强了阿里对加密货币价格走势的看涨前景。

According to Ali’s analysis, potential price levels for Ethereum include testing resistance at $4000 and $6000, respectively.

根据阿里的分析，以太坊的潜在价格水平包括分别测试 4000 美元和 6000 美元的阻力位。

In a bullish scenario, if ETH mirrors the S&P 500’s price action, a target as high as $10,000 is also on the cards.

在看涨情况下，如果 ETH 反映了标准普尔 500 指数的价格走势，那么高达 10,000 美元的目标也有望实现。

However, examining key metrics can offer further insights into whether Ethereum could realistically outperform Bitcoin.

然而，检查关键指标可以进一步了解以太坊是否能够真正超越比特币。

One such metric is the Estimated Leverage Ratio, which reflects the level of leverage used by traders in the derivatives market.

其中一项指标是估计杠杆率，它反映了交易者在衍生品市场中使用的杠杆水平。

A high leverage ratio often indicates increased risk and potential volatility, while a decline may suggest reduced speculation.

高杠杆率通常表明风险和潜在波动性增加，而杠杆率下降可能表明投机减少。

According to data from CryptoQuant, Ethereum’s estimated leverage ratio dropped to 0.40 on the 19th of November, after peaking at 0.430 earlier in the month.

根据 CryptoQuant 的数据，以太坊的预估杠杆率在本月早些时候达到 0.430 的峰值后，于 11 月 19 日降至 0.40。

This decline may indicate reduced speculative activity, potentially paving the way for more stable growth.

这种下降可能表明投机活动减少，可能为更稳定的增长铺平道路。

Moreover, data from Coinglass revealed that Ethereum’s Open Interest has declined by 0.09%, bringing its current valuation to $17.88 billion.

此外，Coinglass的数据显示，以太坊的未平仓合约下降了0.09%，使其当前估值达到178.8亿美元。

Furthermore, the Open Interest volume for ETH has decreased by 30%, now valued at $31.10 billion.

此外，ETH 的未平仓合约量下降了 30%，目前价值 311 亿美元。

These trends could indicate a period of consolidation and reduced market activity for ETH, offering both challenges and opportunities for future growth.

这些趋势可能预示着以太坊将进入一段整合期并减少市场活动，为未来的增长带来挑战和机遇。