以太幣（ETH）價格預測：ETH 能否跑贏比特幣（BTC）？

以太坊 [ETH] 迄今無法跟上比特幣 [BTC] 持續上漲勢頭的步伐。雖然比特幣創下了歷史新高

Bitcoin [BTC] has led the cryptocurrency market throughout 2023, reaching new all-time highs and outperforming most other digital assets.

比特幣 [BTC] 在 2023 年引領加密貨幣市場，創下歷史新高，表現優於大多數其他數位資產。

However, some analysts believe that Ethereum [ETH] is preparing for a massive breakout that could see it outperforming BTC in the coming months.

然而，一些分析師認為，以太坊 [ETH] 正在為大規模突破做準備，可能會在未來幾個月內超越 BTC。

One such analyst, known as Ali, recently highlighted several indicators that, according to him, are setting the stage for ETH to “outperform BTC soon.”

一位名叫 Ali 的分析師最近強調了幾個指標，據他稱，這些指標正在為 ETH「很快超越 BTC」奠定基礎。

Among these indicators is the “alt season indicator,” which has historically signaled periods where altcoins, led by Ethereum, outpace Bitcoin.

這些指標中包括“山寨幣季節指標”，該指標在歷史上曾表明以以太坊為首的山寨幣超過比特幣的時期。

In the current market cycle, this phase has yet to occur, presenting a potential opportunity for ETH to lead the market.

在當前的市場週期中，這一階段尚未出現，這為 ETH 提供了引領市場的潛在機會。

Furthermore, Ali also pointed to the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) metric as a key indicator for Ethereum’s future performance.

此外，阿里也指出MVRV（市場價值與已實現價值）指標是以太坊未來表現的關鍵指標。

The MVRV metric essentially measures the ratio between the market value and realized value of an asset, providing insight into whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued.

MVRV 指標本質上衡量資產的市場價值與已實現價值之間的比率，從而深入了解資產是否被高估或低估。

According to Ali, when Ethereum’s MVRV Momentum crosses its 180-day moving average (MA), it has historically signaled a period of outperformance for the cryptocurrency.

Ali 表示，當以太坊的 MVRV 動量突破 180 天移動平均線 (MA) 時，歷史上就標誌著加密貨幣表現優異的時期。

While ETH's price recently rallied from $2400 to $2800, this cross has yet to occur, suggesting further upside potential.

雖然 ETH 的價格最近從 2400 美元上漲至 2800 美元，但這種交叉尚未發生，表明還有進一步的上漲潛力。

Highlighting another crucial observation, the analyst noted that investors have shifted from distributing to accumulating ETH, with over $147 million in ETH entering spot ETFs.

這位分析師強調了另一個重要觀察結果，指出投資者已從分配 ETH 轉向累積 ETH，其中超過 1.47 億美元的 ETH 進入了現貨 ETF。

Additionally, Ethereum whales have been spotted purchasing over $1.40 billion in ETH, further bolstering Ali’s bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency’s price action.

此外，人們發現以太坊鯨魚購買了超過 14 億美元的 ETH，這進一步增強了阿里對加密貨幣價格走勢的看漲前景。

According to Ali’s analysis, potential price levels for Ethereum include testing resistance at $4000 and $6000, respectively.

根據阿里的分析，以太坊的潛在價格水平包括分別測試 4000 美元和 6000 美元的阻力位。

In a bullish scenario, if ETH mirrors the S&P 500’s price action, a target as high as $10,000 is also on the cards.

在看漲情況下，如果 ETH 反映了標準普爾 500 指數的價格走勢，那麼高達 10,000 美元的目標也有望實現。

However, examining key metrics can offer further insights into whether Ethereum could realistically outperform Bitcoin.

然而，檢查關鍵指標可以進一步了解以太坊是否能夠真正超越比特幣。

One such metric is the Estimated Leverage Ratio, which reflects the level of leverage used by traders in the derivatives market.

其中一項指標是估計槓桿率，它反映了交易者在衍生性商品市場中使用的槓桿程度。

A high leverage ratio often indicates increased risk and potential volatility, while a decline may suggest reduced speculation.

高槓桿率通常表示風險和潛在波動性增加，而槓桿率下降可能表示投機減少。

According to data from CryptoQuant, Ethereum’s estimated leverage ratio dropped to 0.40 on the 19th of November, after peaking at 0.430 earlier in the month.

根據 CryptoQuant 的數據，以太坊的預估槓桿率在本月稍早達到 0.430 的峰值後，於 11 月 19 日降至 0.40。

This decline may indicate reduced speculative activity, potentially paving the way for more stable growth.

這種下降可能表明投機活動減少，可能為更穩定的成長鋪平道路。

Moreover, data from Coinglass revealed that Ethereum’s Open Interest has declined by 0.09%, bringing its current valuation to $17.88 billion.

此外，Coinglass的數據顯示，以太坊的未平倉合約下降了0.09%，使其目前估值達到178.8億美元。

Furthermore, the Open Interest volume for ETH has decreased by 30%, now valued at $31.10 billion.

此外，ETH 的未平倉合約量下降了 30%，目前價值 311 億美元。

These trends could indicate a period of consolidation and reduced market activity for ETH, offering both challenges and opportunities for future growth.

這些趨勢可能預示著以太坊將進入一段整合期並減少市場活動，為未來的成長帶來挑戰和機會。