以太坊 (ETH) 价格预测：尽管存在波动和全球不确定性，ETH 能否突破 4000 美元大关？

以太坊正在成为蓬勃发展的加密货币市场的主要焦点。事实上，其期货的未平仓合约已达到 900 万 ETH 的历史新高，这表明机构参与者的兴趣不断增长。

Amidst a burgeoning crypto market, Ethereum (ETH) is emerging as a focal point, with record-breaking open interest for its futures reaching 9 million ETH, a testament to the growing institutional appetite for the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency. This development is further supported by encouraging signals, including resurgent trader confidence and anticipation of a market recovery following the slowdown in inflation. In this context, a question arises: is ETH poised to cross the symbolic $4000 mark, despite the challenges posed by volatility and global uncertainties?

在蓬勃发展的加密货币市场中，以太坊 (ETH) 正在成为焦点，其期货未平仓合约破纪录达到 900 万枚 ETH，这证明了机构对全球第二大加密货币的兴趣不断增长。这一发展得到了令人鼓舞的信号的进一步支持，包括交易者信心的复苏以及通胀放缓后市场复苏的预期。在这种背景下，出现了一个问题：尽管面临波动性和全球不确定性带来的挑战，ETH是否有望突破象征性的4000美元大关？

Unprecedented institutional interest: the figures that captivate the market

前所未有的机构兴趣：吸引市场的数字

Recent data reveals a remarkable enthusiasm for Ethereum futures, with open interest reaching a record 9 million ETH as of January 17. This figure, the highest ever recorded, reflects the growing strength of positions taken on major platforms such as Binance, Bybit, and Gate.io, which alone account for 54% of the market. In this landscape, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), often regarded as a key indicator of institutional interest, also plays a notable role, with a market share of 10%, equivalent to $3.2 billion.

最近的数据显示出人们对以太坊期货的极大热情，截至 1 月 17 日，未平仓合约达到创纪录的 900 万 ETH。这一数字是有记录以来的最高水平，反映出币安、Bybit 和 Gate 等主要平台上的头寸不断增强.io 就占据了 54% 的市场份额。在这一领域，通常被视为机构利益关键指标的芝加哥商业交易所 (CME) 也发挥着显着作用，其市场份额为 10%，相当于 32 亿美元。

This trend illustrates a growing confidence among investors in Ethereum, although it remains measured. The annualized premium of monthly futures has reached 12%, after fluctuating at 10% in the previous days. This rebound suggests a renewed optimism, fueled by the idea of a forthcoming market recovery. Additionally, the analysis of options confirms a positive sentiment, with a slight predominance of call options over put options. This data reflects a balance in expectations, indicating that market participants are considering favorable prospects for Ethereum.

这一趋势表明投资者对以太坊的信心不断增强，尽管信心仍然有限。月度期货年化溢价继前几日波动10%后，目前已达到12%。这种反弹表明，在市场即将复苏的想法的推动下，人们重新燃起乐观情绪。此外，对期权的分析证实了积极的情绪，看涨期权略高于看跌期权。该数据反映了预期的平衡，表明市场参与者正在考虑以太坊的良好前景。

A supportive macroeconomic context

支持性的宏观经济环境

The growing institutional interest in Ethereum fits into a particularly supportive macroeconomic context. In the United States, the slowdown in inflation has strengthened expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy for the year 2025, providing a favorable environment for risk assets like cryptos. This situation could encourage investors to diversify their portfolios and include more cryptos, thus reducing the opportunity costs associated with these investments. In this framework, the increased engagement of entities such as World Liberty Financial, which has increased its positions on Ethereum in December, adds a new institutional dimension to the market.

机构对以太坊日益增长的兴趣符合特别有利的宏观经济背景。在美国，通胀放缓增强了对2025年更加宽松货币政策的预期，为加密货币等风险资产提供了有利的环境。这种情况可能会鼓励投资者多样化其投资组合并包含更多加密货币，从而降低与这些投资相关的机会成本。在此框架下，World Liberty Financial 等实体的参与度不断增加，该公司于 12 月增加了对以太坊的持仓，为市场增添了新的制度层面。

Despite a notable 11% drop in the price of Ethereum over the past month, long-term signals remain positive. The solid fundamentals of the Ethereum blockchain, coupled with renewed confidence from professional traders, suggest a potential rebound towards the $4000 mark. However, this trajectory will depend on several factors, particularly the market’s ability to absorb fluctuations in demand and overcome increased volatility. While some experts call for caution, others highlight that current conditions could provide fertile ground for a significant recovery.

尽管过去一个月以太坊价格显着下跌 11%，但长期信号仍然积极。以太坊区块链坚实的基本面，加上专业交易员重新燃起的信心，表明其可能反弹至 4000 美元大关。然而，这一轨迹将取决于几个因素，特别是市场吸收需求波动和克服波动加剧的能力。虽然一些专家呼吁谨慎行事，但其他专家则强调，当前的状况可能为大幅复苏提供肥沃的土壤。

Ethereum is undergoing a decisive period, where institutional optimism combines with favorable macroeconomic factors. Although the $4000 target remains ambitious, current data, such as the record increase in open interest and the resurgence of investor confidence, suggest a possible short-term recovery. However, this progress will depend on Ethereum's adaptability in the face of ongoing volatility and growing expectations. In a context where institutional players play a central role, the evolution of Ethereum could redefine its value but also influence the entire crypto market.

以太坊正经历一个决定性的时期，机构乐观情绪与有利的宏观经济因素相结合。尽管 4000 美元的目标仍然雄心勃勃，但当前的数据，例如未平仓合约的创纪录增长和投资者信心的复苏，表明可能出现短期复苏。然而，这一进展将取决于以太坊面对持续波动和不断增长的期望的适应性。在机构参与者发挥核心作用的背景下，以太坊的演变可能会重新定义其价值，同时也会影响整个加密货币市场。

Maximize your Cointribune experience with our "Read to Earn" program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.

通过我们的“阅读赚钱”计划最大化您的 Cointribune 体验！对于您阅读的每一篇文章，均可赚取积分并获得独家奖励。立即注册并开始赚取福利。

Holder of a Sciences Po Toulouse degree and a blockchain consultant certification from Alyra, I joined the Cointribune adventure in 2019. vinced of blockchain's potential to transform numerous sectors of the economy, I am committed to educating and informing the general public about this ever-evolving ecosystem. My aim is to help everyone better understand blockchain and seize the opportunities it offers. I strive each day to provide an objective analysis of the latest news, decipher market trends, relay the newest technological innovations, and put into perspective the economic and societal stakes of this ongoing revolution.

我拥有图卢兹政治学院学位和 Alyra 的区块链顾问认证，于 2019 年加入了 Cointribune 冒险之旅。由于深信区块链具有改变众多经济部门的潜力，我致力于向公众宣传和教育这一不断发展的领域生态系统。我的目标是帮助每个人更好地了解区块链并抓住它提供的机会。我每天都努力对最新新闻进行客观分析，解读市场趋势，传播最新的技术创新，并透视这场正在进行的革命的经济和社会利益。