以太坊 (ETH) 價格預測：儘管存在波動和全球不確定性，ETH 能否突破 4000 美元大關？

以太坊正在成為蓬勃發展的加密貨幣市場的主要焦點。事實上，其期貨的未平倉合約已達到 900 萬 ETH 的歷史新高，這表明機構參與者的興趣不斷增長。

Amidst a burgeoning crypto market, Ethereum (ETH) is emerging as a focal point, with record-breaking open interest for its futures reaching 9 million ETH, a testament to the growing institutional appetite for the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency. This development is further supported by encouraging signals, including resurgent trader confidence and anticipation of a market recovery following the slowdown in inflation. In this context, a question arises: is ETH poised to cross the symbolic $4000 mark, despite the challenges posed by volatility and global uncertainties?

在蓬勃發展的加密貨幣市場中，以太幣 (ETH) 正在成為焦點，其期貨未平倉合約破紀錄達到 900 萬枚 ETH，證明了機構對全球第二大加密貨幣的興趣不斷增長。這一發展得到了令人鼓舞的信號的進一步支持，包括交易者信心的復甦以及通膨放緩後市場復甦的預期。在這種背景下，出現了一個問題：儘管面臨波動性和全球不確定性帶來的挑戰，ETH是否有望突破象徵性的4000美元大關？

Unprecedented institutional interest: the figures that captivate the market

前所未有的機構興趣：吸引市場的數字

Recent data reveals a remarkable enthusiasm for Ethereum futures, with open interest reaching a record 9 million ETH as of January 17. This figure, the highest ever recorded, reflects the growing strength of positions taken on major platforms such as Binance, Bybit, and Gate.io, which alone account for 54% of the market. In this landscape, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), often regarded as a key indicator of institutional interest, also plays a notable role, with a market share of 10%, equivalent to $3.2 billion.

最近的數據顯示出人們對以太坊期貨的極大熱情，截至1 月17 日，未平倉合約達到創紀錄的900 萬ETH。和Gate 等主要平台上的部位不斷增強.io 就佔據了 54% 的市場。在這一格局中，通常被視為機構利益關鍵指標的芝加哥商品交易所（CME）也發揮顯著作用，其市場份額為 10%，相當於 32 億美元。

This trend illustrates a growing confidence among investors in Ethereum, although it remains measured. The annualized premium of monthly futures has reached 12%, after fluctuating at 10% in the previous days. This rebound suggests a renewed optimism, fueled by the idea of a forthcoming market recovery. Additionally, the analysis of options confirms a positive sentiment, with a slight predominance of call options over put options. This data reflects a balance in expectations, indicating that market participants are considering favorable prospects for Ethereum.

這一趨勢顯示投資者對以太坊的信心不斷增強，儘管信心仍然有限。月期期貨年化溢價繼前幾日波動10%後，目前已達12%。這種反彈表明，在市場即將復甦的想法的推動下，人們重新燃起樂觀情緒。此外，對選擇權的分析證實了正面的情緒，而看漲期權略高於看跌期權。這些數據反映了預期的平衡，表明市場參與者正在考慮以太坊的良好前景。

A supportive macroeconomic context

支持性的宏觀經濟環境

The growing institutional interest in Ethereum fits into a particularly supportive macroeconomic context. In the United States, the slowdown in inflation has strengthened expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy for the year 2025, providing a favorable environment for risk assets like cryptos. This situation could encourage investors to diversify their portfolios and include more cryptos, thus reducing the opportunity costs associated with these investments. In this framework, the increased engagement of entities such as World Liberty Financial, which has increased its positions on Ethereum in December, adds a new institutional dimension to the market.

機構對以太坊日益增長的興趣符合特別有利的宏觀經濟背景。在美國，通膨放緩增強了對2025年更加寬鬆貨幣政策的預期，為加密貨幣等風險資產提供了有利的環境。這種情況可能會鼓勵投資者多樣化其投資組合併包含更多加密貨幣，從而降低與這些投資相關的機會成本。在此框架下，World Liberty Financial 等實體的參與度不斷增加，該公司於 12 月增加了以太坊的持股，為市場增添了新的製度維度。

Despite a notable 11% drop in the price of Ethereum over the past month, long-term signals remain positive. The solid fundamentals of the Ethereum blockchain, coupled with renewed confidence from professional traders, suggest a potential rebound towards the $4000 mark. However, this trajectory will depend on several factors, particularly the market’s ability to absorb fluctuations in demand and overcome increased volatility. While some experts call for caution, others highlight that current conditions could provide fertile ground for a significant recovery.

儘管過去一個月以太坊價格顯著下跌 11%，但長期訊號仍然積極。以太坊區塊鏈堅實的基本面，加上專業交易員重新燃起的信心，表明其可能反彈至 4000 美元大關。然而，這一軌跡將取決於幾個因素，特別是市場吸收需求波動和克服波動加劇的能力。雖然一些專家呼籲謹慎行事，但其他專家則強調，當前的狀況可能為大幅復甦提供肥沃的土壤。

Ethereum is undergoing a decisive period, where institutional optimism combines with favorable macroeconomic factors. Although the $4000 target remains ambitious, current data, such as the record increase in open interest and the resurgence of investor confidence, suggest a possible short-term recovery. However, this progress will depend on Ethereum's adaptability in the face of ongoing volatility and growing expectations. In a context where institutional players play a central role, the evolution of Ethereum could redefine its value but also influence the entire crypto market.

以太坊正經歷一個決定性的時期，機構樂觀情緒與有利的宏觀經濟因素結合。儘管 4000 美元的目標仍然雄心勃勃，但目前的數據，例如未平倉合約的創紀錄增長和投資者信心的復甦，表明可能出現短期復甦。然而，這項進展將取決於以太坊面對持續波動和不斷增長的期望的適應性。在機構參與者發揮核心作用的背景下，以太坊的演變可能會重新定義其價值，同時也會影響整個加密貨幣市場。

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Holder of a Sciences Po Toulouse degree and a blockchain consultant certification from Alyra, I joined the Cointribune adventure in 2019. vinced of blockchain's potential to transform numerous sectors of the economy, I am committed to educating and informing the general public about this ever-evolving ecosystem. My aim is to help everyone better understand blockchain and seize the opportunities it offers. I strive each day to provide an objective analysis of the latest news, decipher market trends, relay the newest technological innovations, and put into perspective the economic and societal stakes of this ongoing revolution.

我擁有圖盧茲政治學院學位和Alyra 的區塊鏈顧問認證，於2019 年加入了Cointribune 冒險之旅。的領域生態系。我的目標是幫助大家更了解區塊鏈並抓住它所提供的機會。我每天都努力對最新新聞進行客觀分析，解讀市場趨勢，傳播最新的技術創新，並透視這場正在進行的革命的經濟和社會利益。