以太坊 (ETH) 价格预测：修正还是上涨 15%？

以太坊（ETH）的价格在本周期中一直难以跟上其他主要加密货币的步伐。尽管 ETH 今年迄今已上涨 32%，但其表现明显落后于比特币的 112% 和 Solana 的 115% 的涨幅。

ETH price trails other major cryptocurrencies this cycle with a 32% YTD gain, compared to BTC's 112% and SOL's 115%. Among the top 10 coins, ETH has seen the least growth, outperforming only Avalanche.

ETH 价格本周期落后于其他主要加密货币，年初至今上涨 32%，而 BTC 为 112%，SOL 为 115%。在排名前 10 的币种中，ETH 的增长最为缓慢，仅超过 Avalanche。

This lackluster performance highlights growing uncertainty around ETH, as key metrics like whale activity and net exchange flows suggest investors are hesitant to bet heavily on Ethereum.

这种低迷的表现突显了 ETH 的不确定性日益增加，因为鲸鱼活动和净交易流量等关键指标表明投资者对大力押注以太坊犹豫不决。

ETH Net Transfer Volume Positive for 6 Days Running

ETH 净转账量连续 6 天为正

Ethereum’s Net Flow From/To Exchanges has seen significant shifts in recent weeks. Between November 13 and November 18, the net flow was consistently positive, peaking at 83,500 on November 18.

最近几周，以太坊交易所的净流量发生了重大变化。 11月13日至18日期间，净流量持续为正值，并于11月18日达到峰值83,500。

Earlier in the month, it hit its highest value in two weeks, reaching 128,000 on November 10. However, on November 19, the trend reversed, with the flow turning sharply negative at -33,400.

本月早些时候，它触及两周来的最高值，于11月10日达到128,000。然而，11月19日，趋势发生逆转，流量急剧转为负数，至-33,400。

A high volume of ETH being sent to exchanges often indicates bearish sentiment, as users may be preparing to sell their holdings. Conversely, ETH being withdrawn from exchanges can signal a bullish outlook, as holders typically store assets in private wallets for the long haul.

大量 ETH 被发送到交易所通常表明看跌情绪，因为用户可能正准备出售其持有的资产。相反，ETH 从交易所撤出可能预示着看涨的前景，因为持有者通常将资产长期存储在私人钱包中。

Despite the net outflow on November 19, it came after six consecutive days of positive flows. This suggests that while the recent withdrawal is a promising sign, sustained negative flows are needed for the signal to turn decisively bullish for ETH price trajectory.

尽管11月19日出现净流出，但这是在连续六天的正资金流出之后发生的。这表明，虽然最近的撤资是一个有希望的信号，但需要持续的负流才能使信号转向对 ETH 价格轨迹果断看涨。

Ethereum Whales Seem To Be Second-Guessing

以太坊鲸鱼似乎在事后猜测

The number of Ethereum whales holding at least 1,000 ETH surged significantly between November 7 and November 13, increasing from 5,527 to 5,561. This marked a strong period of accumulation by large holders, suggesting heightened interest during that time frame.

11 月 7 日至 13 日期间，持有至少 1,000 ETH 的以太坊鲸鱼数量大幅增加，从 5,527 只增加到 5,561 只。这标志着大股东的强劲增持时期，表明在此期间兴趣浓厚。

However, the number dropped sharply on November 14 to 5,534 and has struggled to recover since then. Currently sitting at 5,542, the metric's ups and downs indicate lingering uncertainty among whales. Their hesitance suggests that they are unsure of ETH's price potential for sustained surges in the near term.

然而，该数字在 11 月 14 日大幅下降至 5,534 人，此后一直难以恢复。目前该指标为 5,542，其起伏表明鲸鱼之间仍存在挥之不去的不确定性。他们的犹豫表明他们不确定 ETH 的价格在短期内持续飙升的潜力。

ETH Price Prediction: A Correction or a 15% Upside?

ETH 价格预测：修正还是上涨 15%？

Ethereum’s short-term EMA lines remain above the long-term ones, but the gap between them is narrowing. If the short-term line crosses below the long-term line, it would form a death cross, a bearish signal that could indicate a stronger downtrend ahead.

以太坊的短期均线仍高于长期均线，但两者之间的差距正在缩小。如果短期线跌破长期线，则将形成死亡交叉，这是一个看跌信号，可能表明未来会有更强的下降趋势。

If Ethereum enters a downtrend, it may test its nearest support at $2,990. A break below this level could lead to further declines, with the price potentially falling to $2,570.

如果以太坊进入下跌趋势，它可能会测试最近的支撑位 2,990 美元。跌破该水平可能会导致进一步下跌，价格可能跌至 2,570 美元。

On the other hand, renewed confidence from whales could push ETH price higher. In this scenario, the price might first test resistance at $3,219 and then climb to $3,448, offering a potential upside of around 15%.

另一方面，鲸鱼重拾信心可能会推高 ETH 价格。在这种情况下，价格可能首先测试 3,219 美元的阻力位，然后攀升至 3,448 美元，潜在上涨空间约为 15%。