选举日对 Polymarket 的投注：民主与数字美元相遇，数据就是游戏的名称

Polymarket 是少数几个真正的金钱与实时数据相遇的空间之一。在选举日，这个市场上充斥着热门话题、数据点

Troy Miller here, taking you down the rabbit hole of Election Day betting on Polymarket, where democracy meets digital dollars and data is the name of the game.

特洛伊·米勒 (Troy Miller) 在这里，带您走进 Polymarket 的选举日博彩兔子洞，民主与数字美元相遇，数据就是游戏的名称。

For those who haven’t taken a stroll through the rough-and-tumble landscape of decentralized prediction markets, Polymarket is one of the few spaces where real money meets real-time data. And on Election Day, this marketplace is a frenzy of hot takes, data points, and—let’s face it—a fair dose of wishful thinking.

对于那些还没有在去中心化预测市场的混乱环境中漫步过的人来说，Polymarket 是少数几个真正的金钱与实时数据相遇的空间之一。在选举日，这个市场充斥着热门观点、数据点，以及——让我们面对现实吧——大量的一厢情愿的想法。

Why Bet on Elections? (Because We’re All Junkies for the Drama)

为什么要押注选举？ （因为我们都是戏剧迷）

Polymarket appeals to a certain type of financial gambler—the data-driven, tech-savvy individual who lives for speculating on high-stakes events. And de-gen crypto traders, obviously. On Election Day, it’s a convergence of big data, partisan hopes, and relentless analysis. Polls might be inaccurate, pundits might bluster, but Polymarket? It lets you put your money where your mouth is. Want to bet on that swing state going red or blue? There’s a market for that.

Polymarket 吸引了某种类型的金融赌徒，即以数据驱动、精通技术、以投机高风险事件为生的个人。显然，还有去代加密货币交易员。在选举日，这是大数据、党派希望和不懈分析的融合。民意调查可能不准确，专家可能会夸夸其谈，但 Polymarket 呢？它可以让你把钱放在嘴边。想押注那个摇摆州会变成红色还是蓝色？这是有市场的。

Here’s why people get into it. Markets like Polymarket aren’t just about winning a few bucks; they’re treated like a test of predictive power. People don’t just bet; they analyze, argue, double down. And for Election Day, that means scrolling through live polls, economic indicators, and conspiracy theories. Everyone’s got a system, and by noon, they’re riding the adrenaline-fueled highs of the “inside info” they got from that obscure data source.

这就是人们参与其中的原因。像 Polymarket 这样的市场不仅仅是为了赢几块钱；而是为了赢钱。它们被视为预测能力的测试。人们不只是下注；而是下注。他们分析、争论、加倍努力。在选举日，这意味着滚动浏览实时民意调查、经济指标和阴谋论。每个人都有一个系统，到了中午，他们就从那个晦涩的数据源获得的“内部信息”中获得了肾上腺素飙升的快感。

Right now, Trump is the clear favorite, and he’s increasing his lead.

目前，特朗普显然是最受欢迎的候选人，而且他的领先优势正在扩大。

Source: Polymarket

资料来源：Polymarket

The Inner Workings of Polymarket: Betting on the Future or Building It?

Polymarket 的内部运作：押注未来还是建设未来？

Prediction markets like Polymarket have more going for them than just potential profits. They claim to harness the wisdom of the crowd to predict outcomes, theoretically offering a better read than your average political talking head. And here’s the kicker—Polymarket might actually be on to something. Studies suggest prediction markets, when properly run, are surprisingly accurate. Why? Because people tend to make smarter bets when they have cash on the line. No one’s just “hope betting” here.

像 Polymarket 这样的预测市场不仅仅有潜在的利润。他们声称利用群众的智慧来预测结果，理论上比一般的政治谈话者提供了更好的解读。更令人兴奋的是——Polymarket 可能确实有所作为。研究表明，如果运行得当，预测市场会非常准确。为什么？因为当人们手头有现金时，他们往往会做出更明智的赌注。这里没有人只是“希望赌注”。

Then there’s the whole blockchain thing. Polymarket uses crypto, which makes it a little different from, say, Vegas odds. It’s decentralized, which means no one (theoretically) can control the outcomes. But let’s be real; it’s not perfect. With DeFi regulations being hazy at best, Polymarket exists in a quasi-legal grey zone, especially in the U.S., where traditional betting on political outcomes is still largely banned.

然后就是整个区块链的事情。 Polymarket 使用加密货币，这使得它与维加斯赔率等有点不同。它是去中心化的，这意味着没有人（理论上）可以控制结果。但让我们面对现实吧；它并不完美。由于 DeFi 监管充其量是模糊的，Polymarket 存在于准法律的灰色地带，尤其是在美国，对政治结果的传统投注仍然在很大程度上被禁止。

If Trump wins today, expect a Bitcoin all-time high this year.

如果特朗普今天获胜，预计比特币今年将创下历史新高。

Source: Polymarket

资料来源：Polymarket

The High-Stakes, High-Risk Ride of Election Day

选举日的高风险、高风险

Here’s the rub with Election Day bets—timing is everything, and the tide can turn in seconds. For most bets, Polymarket offers binary options. Either yes, the event happens, or no, it doesn’t. On Election Day, it’s all about the thrill of knowing that you could go from winning to losing with a single precinct report.

这就是选举日投注的难点——时机就是一切，潮流可能在几秒钟内发生逆转。对于大多数投注，Polymarket 提供二元期权。要么是，事件发生，要么不是，事件没有发生。在选举日，最令人兴奋的是知道您可以通过一份选区报告从获胜变成失败。

This isn’t sports betting, where the game plays out predictably. It’s a frenzy of breaking news and unreliable exit polls, where bettors’ moods swing faster than polling data. By 5 p.m., it’s a madhouse of last-minute plays, and by the time the official results start rolling in, you’re in too deep to back out. It’s high-risk, high-reward, and plenty of people lose their shirts—or their crypto wallets, in this case.

这不是体育博彩，比赛的结果是可以预测的。这是突发新闻和不可靠的出口民意调查的狂热，投注者的情绪波动比民意调查数据更快。到了下午 5 点，最后一刻的比赛就变成了一场疯狂的比赛，当官方结果开始出现时，你已经陷得太深而无法退出。这是高风险、高回报的，很多人失去了他们的衬衫——或者在这种情况下失去了他们的加密钱包。