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在 11 月 5 日美国选民投票之前,赌注非常高。伯恩斯坦曾将美国大选描绘成比特币达到 9 万美元之间的选择
The US election is heating up, and the stakes are sky high for the crypto industry.
美国大选正在升温,加密货币行业的风险极高。
Earlier this year, Bernstein painted the US election as a choice between Bitcoin reaching $90,000 under Donald Trump or the cryptocurrency plunging to $30,000 with Kamala Harris.
今年早些时候,伯恩斯坦将美国大选描绘成一个选择:要么唐纳德·特朗普领导下的比特币价格达到 90,000 美元,要么卡玛拉·哈里斯领导下的加密货币暴跌至 30,000 美元。
Now, the Wall Street research firm has changed its tune, saying “momentum should continue regardless of election outcome.”
现在,这家华尔街研究公司改变了态度,表示“无论选举结果如何,这种势头都应该持续下去”。
This is a dramatic about-face from Bernstein, which comes on the back of the industry's $204 million spending spree to sway crypto-friendly politicians in Washington.
这是 Bernstein 的一次戏剧性转变,此前该行业斥资 2.04 亿美元疯狂投资,以影响华盛顿对加密货币友好的政客。
With both Republicans and Democrats now making genial overtures towards the sector, one could argue that they’ve gotten exactly what they've paid for.
随着共和党和民主党现在都对该行业做出了友好的姿态,人们可以说他们已经得到了他们所付出的代价。
A crypto electionThe amount of money put into the industry's lobbying efforts — as well as the more than $1 billion placed on election bets on crypto gambling platform Polymarket — highlight the importance of the crypto sector in the election.
加密货币选举投入该行业游说工作的资金,以及加密货币赌博平台 Polymarket 上超过 10 亿美元的选举赌注,凸显了加密货币行业在选举中的重要性。
Under Joe Biden's term as president, Democrats talked up their anti-crypto army; supported the “off-ramping of crypto companies” during the 2023 banking crisis; and endorsed Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler's anti-crypto campaign, Bernstein noted last week.
在乔·拜登担任总统期间,民主党人大肆宣扬他们的反加密军队;在 2023 年银行危机期间支持“加密货币公司的退出”;伯恩斯坦上周指出,并支持美国证券交易委员会主席加里·詹斯勒的反加密运动。
The SEC's data shows it has brought some 158 cases against firms and individuals involving crypto. Over half of these were levied under Gensler.
SEC 的数据显示,它已对涉及加密货币的公司和个人提起了约 158 起案件。其中一半以上是在詹斯勒的领导下征收的。
In Trump, crypto pundits saw an end to that campaign. The former president has loudly thrown his weight behind crypto. Among other things, he's pledged to create a national Bitcoin stockpile, and to send Gensler packing.
在特朗普身上,加密货币专家看到了这场竞选活动的结束。这位前总统大声地支持加密货币。除此之外,他还承诺建立一个全国性的比特币库存,并让 Gensler 离开。
That created the origin of the Trump Trade. This summer, the narrative that his winning the White House for a second term would propel Bitcoin gained momentum.
这创造了特朗普贸易的起源。今年夏天,有关他赢得白宫连任将推动比特币发展的说法愈演愈烈。
Then Biden bowed out, making Harris his heir apparent. Her campaign saw her quickly overtake Trump in the polls. To some, like Lekker Capital Co-Founder Quinn Thompson, that was the end of the Trump Trade.
然后拜登退出,哈里斯成为他的法定继承人。在她的竞选活动中,她在民意调查中迅速超越了特朗普。对于 Lekker Capital 联合创始人 Quinn Thompson 等一些人来说,特朗普交易就这样结束了。
They argued that other factors — like the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates or conflict in the Middle East — had a bigger impact than whoever ended up in the Oval Office.
他们认为,其他因素——比如美联储降息或中东冲突——比最终入主椭圆形办公室的人产生的影响更大。
Harris didn't say anything about crypto in the first two months of her campaign, an indicator that she might continue the Biden Administration's crypto crackdown.
哈里斯在竞选的前两个月没有提及任何有关加密货币的内容,这表明她可能会继续拜登政府的加密货币打击行动。
But that's changing. Last week, Harris said that she's backing the development of digital assets.
但这种情况正在改变。上周,哈里斯表示她支持数字资产的发展。
While some industry pundits labelled the comments as “hollow words,” they “did feel some relief with both candidates signalling support,” Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia wrote.
伯恩斯坦分析师高塔姆·楚加尼 (Gautam Chhugani)、马希卡·萨普拉 (Mahika Sapra) 和桑斯卡·钦达利亚 (Sanskar Chindalia) 写道,虽然一些行业专家将这些评论称为“空话”,但他们“确实因两位候选人都表示支持而感到松了口气”。
They added, however, that “crypto market sentiment under a Trump win would be stronger, since it would indicate a fresh policy start and likely broader regulatory support.”
不过,他们补充说,“特朗普获胜后,加密货币市场情绪将会更加强劲,因为这将表明新的政策开始,并可能带来更广泛的监管支持。”
Crypto market moversEric Johansson is DL News' News Editor. Got a tip? Email at eric@dlnews.com.
加密货币市场推动者埃里克·约翰逊 (Eric Johansson) 是 DL News 的新闻编辑。有小费吗?电子邮件:eric@dlnews.com。
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