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在 11 月 5 日美國選民投票之前,賭注非常高。
The US election is heating up, and the stakes are sky high for the crypto industry.
美國大選正在升溫,加密貨幣產業的風險極高。
Earlier this year, Bernstein painted the US election as a choice between Bitcoin reaching $90,000 under Donald Trump or the cryptocurrency plunging to $30,000 with Kamala Harris.
今年早些時候,伯恩斯坦將美國大選描繪成一個選擇:要么唐納德·特朗普領導下的比特幣價格達到 90,000 美元,要么卡瑪拉·哈里斯領導下的加密貨幣暴跌至 30,000 美元。
Now, the Wall Street research firm has changed its tune, saying “momentum should continue regardless of election outcome.”
現在,這家華爾街研究公司改變了態度,表示“無論選舉結果如何,這種勢頭都應該持續下去。”
This is a dramatic about-face from Bernstein, which comes on the back of the industry's $204 million spending spree to sway crypto-friendly politicians in Washington.
這是 Bernstein 的戲劇性轉變,此前該行業斥資 2.04 億美元瘋狂投資,以影響華盛頓對加密貨幣友好的政客。
With both Republicans and Democrats now making genial overtures towards the sector, one could argue that they’ve gotten exactly what they've paid for.
隨著共和黨和民主黨現在都對該行業做出了友好的姿態,人們可以說他們已經得到了他們所付出的代價。
A crypto electionThe amount of money put into the industry's lobbying efforts — as well as the more than $1 billion placed on election bets on crypto gambling platform Polymarket — highlight the importance of the crypto sector in the election.
加密貨幣選舉投入該行業遊說工作的資金,以及加密貨幣賭博平台 Polymarket 上超過 10 億美元的選舉賭注,凸顯了加密貨幣行業在選舉中的重要性。
Under Joe Biden's term as president, Democrats talked up their anti-crypto army; supported the “off-ramping of crypto companies” during the 2023 banking crisis; and endorsed Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler's anti-crypto campaign, Bernstein noted last week.
在喬·拜登擔任總統期間,民主黨人大肆宣揚他們的反加密軍隊;在 2023 年銀行危機期間支持「加密貨幣公司的退出」;伯恩斯坦上週指出,並支持美國證券交易委員會主席加里·詹斯勒的反加密運動。
The SEC's data shows it has brought some 158 cases against firms and individuals involving crypto. Over half of these were levied under Gensler.
SEC 的數據顯示,它已對涉及加密貨幣的公司和個人提起了約 158 起案件。其中一半以上是在詹斯勒的領導下徵收的。
In Trump, crypto pundits saw an end to that campaign. The former president has loudly thrown his weight behind crypto. Among other things, he's pledged to create a national Bitcoin stockpile, and to send Gensler packing.
在川普身上,加密貨幣專家看到了這場競選活動的結束。這位前總統大聲地支持加密貨幣。除此之外,他還承諾建立一個全國性的比特幣庫存,並讓 Gensler 離開。
That created the origin of the Trump Trade. This summer, the narrative that his winning the White House for a second term would propel Bitcoin gained momentum.
這創造了川普貿易的起源。今年夏天,有關他贏得白宮連任將推動比特幣發展的說法愈演愈烈。
Then Biden bowed out, making Harris his heir apparent. Her campaign saw her quickly overtake Trump in the polls. To some, like Lekker Capital Co-Founder Quinn Thompson, that was the end of the Trump Trade.
然後拜登退出,哈里斯成為他的法定繼承人。在她的競選活動中,她在民意調查中迅速超越了川普。對於 Lekker Capital 聯合創始人 Quinn Thompson 等一些人來說,川普交易就這樣結束了。
They argued that other factors — like the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates or conflict in the Middle East — had a bigger impact than whoever ended up in the Oval Office.
他們認為,其他因素——例如聯準會降息或中東衝突——比最終入主橢圓形辦公室的人產生的影響更大。
Harris didn't say anything about crypto in the first two months of her campaign, an indicator that she might continue the Biden Administration's crypto crackdown.
哈里斯在競選的前兩個月沒有提及任何有關加密貨幣的內容,這表明她可能會繼續拜登政府的加密貨幣打擊行動。
But that's changing. Last week, Harris said that she's backing the development of digital assets.
但這種情況正在改變。上週,哈里斯表示她支持數位資產的發展。
While some industry pundits labelled the comments as “hollow words,” they “did feel some relief with both candidates signalling support,” Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia wrote.
伯恩斯坦分析師高塔姆·楚加尼(Gautam Chhugani)、馬希卡·薩普拉(Mahika Sapra) 和桑斯卡·欽達利亞(Sanskar Chindalia) 寫道,雖然一些行業專家將這些評論稱為“空話”,但他們“確實因兩位候選人都表示支持而感到鬆了口氣”。
They added, however, that “crypto market sentiment under a Trump win would be stronger, since it would indicate a fresh policy start and likely broader regulatory support.”
不過,他們補充說,“川普獲勝後,加密貨幣市場情緒將會更加強勁,因為這將表明新的政策開始,並可能帶來更廣泛的監管支持。”
Crypto market moversEric Johansson is DL News' News Editor. Got a tip? Email at eric@dlnews.com.
加密貨幣市場推動者 Eric Johansson 是 DL News 的新聞編輯。有小費嗎?電子郵件:eric@dlnews.com。
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