2020 年大选已势在必行。以下是可能决定结果的因素。

仅仅因为这次选举的结果不确定，并不意味着实际结果不会具有决定性

The outcome of the 2020 presidential election is still up in the air, with both candidates having a chance to win. A shift of a few percentage points either way could determine the winner, especially in the battleground states.

2020 年总统选举的结果仍悬而未决，两位候选人都有机会获胜。无论哪种方式，几个百分点的变化都可能决定胜利者，尤其是在摇摆州。

If the voter turnout models are incorrect and more women, rural residents, or disaffected young voters participate in the election, it could significantly impact the final results.

如果选民投票率模型不正确，更多女性、农村居民或心怀不满的年轻选民参与选举，可能会对最终结果产生重大影响。

Surprises may also arise within key demographic groups. For instance, will Trump succeed in making inroads with young Black and Latino men, as predicted by his campaign? Is Harris attracting a larger proportion of traditionally Republican suburban women, as her team anticipates? Finally, are elderly voters, who typically vote in every election and lean towards the right, shifting their support to the Democratic candidate?

关键人群中也可能出现意外情况。例如，特朗普能否像他的竞选活动所预测的那样，成功地赢得年轻黑人和拉丁裔男性的青睐？哈里斯是否像她的团队预期的那样吸引了更多传统共和党郊区女性？最后，通常在每次选举中投票并倾向于右翼的老年选民是否正在将支持转向民主党候选人？

After the election, we may be able to pinpoint a specific reason for the winning candidate's victory. In retrospect, the answer might seem clear. However, anyone claiming to know the precise outcome at this moment is either deceiving you or themselves.

选举结束后，我们也许能够找出获胜候选人获胜的具体原因。回想起来，答案似乎很清楚。然而，此刻任何声称知道确切结果的人要么是在欺骗你，要么是在欺骗他们自己。