比特币的平均成本法（DCA）已经结束了吗？

平均成本法（DCA）策略吸引了许多加密货币投资者。通过定期投资固定金额，他们希望减轻市场波动并实现有利的平均购买价格。然而，一些专家认为，比特币中 DCA 的机会可能很快就会消失，投资者必须寻找新的策略来最大化收益。

Many crypto investors swear by the Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy. They believe that by regularly investing a fixed amount, they can smooth out market fluctuations and achieve a favorable average purchase price. But what if the golden age of DCA is coming to an end?

许多加密货币投资者都非常信赖成本平均（DCA）策略。他们相信，通过定期投资固定金额，可以平滑市场波动并获得有利的平均购买价格。但如果 DCA 的黄金时代即将结束怎么办？

At least one expert thinks so. But don’t despair yet, as the future of bitcoin (BTC) still looks bright.

至少一位专家这么认为。但还不要绝望，因为比特币（BTC）的未来看起来仍然光明。

Close to 83.5% of cryptocurrency investors have used the DCA strategy at some point, and 59% still use it as their primary method for purchasing cryptos, according to a recent survey. But one well-known trader claims that the time for DCA in bitcoin has passed and that it will not return for at least another year and a half (18 months).

最近的一项调查显示，近 83.5% 的加密货币投资者曾在某个时候使用过 DCA 策略，并且 59% 的投资者仍然将其作为购买加密货币的主要方法。但一位知名交易员声称，比特币中 DCA 的时代已经过去，至少还要一年半（18 个月）才会回归。

The crux of his argument is that bitcoin’s dominance has become too overwhelming, leaving little room for further gains. Instead, he believes that investors should shift their focus to altcoins, which offer a better risk/reward trade-off. Adam Cochran also expressed doubts about BTC’s ability to out-perform the rest of the market in the short term, seeing potential advantages for other assets.

他的论点的核心是，比特币的主导地位已经变得过于压倒性，几乎没有进一步上涨的空间。相反，他认为投资者应该将注意力转向山寨币，因为山寨币可以提供更好的风险/回报权衡。 Adam Cochran 还对 BTC 在短期内跑赢市场其他资产的能力表示怀疑，因为他看到了其他资产的潜在优势。

But not everyone shares this pessimistic view. The CEO of the Blockchain Association, Kristin Smith, thinks that the momentum for bitcoin is far from over. She predicts that BTC will reach $200,000 before falling back to $50,000, which would mark a 108% increase from its current price.

但并非所有人都同意这种悲观观点。区块链协会首席执行官克里斯汀史密斯认为，比特币的势头还远未结束。她预计 BTC 将达到 20 万美元，然后回落至 5 万美元，这将比当前价格上涨 108%。

Currently, bitcoin is trading at around $96,769, and some analysts, like Darkfost from CryptoQuant, believe this area is favorable for implementing a DCA strategy. Moreover, the pro-crypto administration of Donald Trump could spark a new wave of investments in BTC.

目前，比特币的交易价格约为 96,769 美元，一些分析师（例如 CryptoQuant 的 Darkfost）认为该区域有利于实施 DCA 策略。此外，唐纳德·特朗普的支持加密货币的政府可能会引发新一轮的比特币投资浪潮。

So, while some traders may believe that the opportunity for DCA in BTC has passed, others still see potential for substantial growth. Ultimately, the decision to use this strategy will depend on individual outlooks and each bitcoin investor’s risk tolerance.

因此，虽然一些交易者可能认为 BTC 的 DCA 机会已经过去，但其他交易者仍然看到了大幅增长的潜力。最终，使用这一策略的决定将取决于个人的前景和每个比特币投资者的风险承受能力。