比特幣的平均成本法（DCA）已經結束了嗎？

平均成本法（DCA）策略吸引了許多加密貨幣投資者。透過定期投資固定金額，他們希望減輕市場波動並實現有利的平均購買價格。然而，一些專家認為，比特幣中 DCA 的機會可能很快就會消失，投資者必須尋找新的策略來最大化收益。

Many crypto investors swear by the Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy. They believe that by regularly investing a fixed amount, they can smooth out market fluctuations and achieve a favorable average purchase price. But what if the golden age of DCA is coming to an end?

許多加密貨幣投資者都非常信賴成本平均（DCA）策略。他們相信，透過定期投資固定金額，可以平滑市場波動並獲得有利的平均購買價格。但如果 DCA 的黃金時代即將結束呢？

At least one expert thinks so. But don’t despair yet, as the future of bitcoin (BTC) still looks bright.

至少有一位專家這麼認為。但還不要絕望，因為比特幣（BTC）的未來看起來仍然光明。

Close to 83.5% of cryptocurrency investors have used the DCA strategy at some point, and 59% still use it as their primary method for purchasing cryptos, according to a recent survey. But one well-known trader claims that the time for DCA in bitcoin has passed and that it will not return for at least another year and a half (18 months).

最近的一項調查顯示，近 83.5% 的加密貨幣投資者曾在某個時候使用過 DCA 策略，並且 59% 的投資者仍然將其作為購買加密貨幣的主要方法。但一位知名交易員聲稱，比特幣中 DCA 的時代已經過去，至少還要一年半（18 個月）才會回歸。

The crux of his argument is that bitcoin’s dominance has become too overwhelming, leaving little room for further gains. Instead, he believes that investors should shift their focus to altcoins, which offer a better risk/reward trade-off. Adam Cochran also expressed doubts about BTC’s ability to out-perform the rest of the market in the short term, seeing potential advantages for other assets.

他的論點的核心是，比特幣的主導地位已經變得過於壓倒性，幾乎沒有進一步上漲的空間。相反，他認為投資者應該將注意力轉向山寨幣，因為山寨幣可以提供更好的風險/回報權衡。 Adam Cochran 也對 BTC 在短期內跑贏市場其他資產的能力表示懷疑，因為他看到了其他資產的潛在優勢。

But not everyone shares this pessimistic view. The CEO of the Blockchain Association, Kristin Smith, thinks that the momentum for bitcoin is far from over. She predicts that BTC will reach $200,000 before falling back to $50,000, which would mark a 108% increase from its current price.

但並非所有人都同意這種悲觀觀點。區塊鏈協會執行長克里斯汀史密斯認為，比特幣的勢頭還遠遠沒有結束。她預計 BTC 將達到 20 萬美元，然後回落至 5 萬美元，這將比目前價格上漲 108%。

Currently, bitcoin is trading at around $96,769, and some analysts, like Darkfost from CryptoQuant, believe this area is favorable for implementing a DCA strategy. Moreover, the pro-crypto administration of Donald Trump could spark a new wave of investments in BTC.

目前，比特幣的交易價格約為 96,769 美元，一些分析師（例如 CryptoQuant 的 Darkfost）認為該地區有利於實施 DCA 策略。此外，唐納德·川普的支持加密貨幣的政府可能會引發新一輪的比特幣投資浪潮。

So, while some traders may believe that the opportunity for DCA in BTC has passed, others still see potential for substantial growth. Ultimately, the decision to use this strategy will depend on individual outlooks and each bitcoin investor’s risk tolerance.

因此，雖然一些交易者可能認為 BTC 的 DCA 機會已經過去，但其他交易者仍然看到了大幅成長的潛力。最終，使用這種策略的決定將取決於個人的前景和每個比特幣投資者的風險承受能力。