Dogecoin [Doge]表现出弹性的迹象，因为它继续在关键的长期升级渠道上方保持

Dogecoin [Doge]表现出弹性的迹象，因为它继续在关键的长期上升渠道上持有弹性，这激发了人们的猜测，即Memecoin可能处于潜在突破的边缘。

Dogecoin [DOGE] price has been showing signs of resilience as it continues to trade above a key long-term structure, hinting at a potential breakout scenario.

Dogecoin [Doge]的价格一直表现出弹性的迹象，因为它继续超过关键的长期结构，这暗示了潜在的突破情况。

This analysis explores the technical and on-chain factors that could influence the memecoin’s future direction.

该分析探讨了可能影响Memecoin未来方向的技术和链上因素。

Dogecoin tests lower boundary of ascending channel

Dogecoin测试上升通道的下边界

On the macro [1W] chart, Dogecoin remains well-supported above the lower boundary of its long-term ascending channel, which began in 2015.

在宏观[1W]图表上，狗狗币在其长期上升渠道的下边界上方保持良好的支持，该频道始于2015年。

This trendline has served as a foundational level, and DOGE has respected this structure throughout previous cycles, rendering it a crucial zone for buyers to defend.

这种趋势线一直是基础层面，而Doge在整个以前的周期中都尊重这种结构，这使其成为买家捍卫的关键区域。

Source: X

来源：X

The recent pullback brought DOGE to $0.17, just above the 0.786 Fibonacci level $0.18395, a key retracement area that often precedes a rebound if demand accelerates.

最近的回调使门槛提高到0.17美元，略高于0.786斐波那契级别$ 0.18395，这是一个关键回收区，如果需求加速，通常在反弹之前。

If history repeats, this could mark the beginning of a move back toward the mid-range of the channel at around $0.56 or even higher toward $2.73, the 1.272 Fib extension, assuming broader market momentum returns.

如果历史重复，这可能标志着返回渠道中端的开始，左右为2.73美元，即1.272 FIB扩展名，假设市场动量收益较大。

Trends hint at growing confidence

趋势暗示着信心越来越大

On-chain data supports this technical structure. The Accumulation/Distribution Line was 20.28 billion DOGE at press time, signaling that long-term holders are continuing to accumulate even as price consolidates.

链上数据支持这种技术结构。发稿时，累积/分配线为202.8亿次，表明即使价格合并，长期持有人也在继续积累。

Source: TradingView

资料来源：TradingView

This divergence between price and accumulation often precedes rallies, when buyers are able to mop up sellers and generally exert more control over the balance of trade.

当买家能够拖延卖方并通常对贸易平衡产生更多控制权，价格和累积之间的这种差异通常在集会之前。

Additionally, Santiment’s cohort distribution data highlights continued demand from large wallets.

此外，Santiment的队列分布数据强调了大钱包的持续需求。

Addresses holding [10M–100M DOGE] and [100M–1B DOGE] have seen steady accumulation throughout March, even as mid-sized holders [1M–10M DOGE] saw their balances decrease slightly.

在整个3月，即使中型持有人[1m-11m doge]看到它们的余额略有下降，地址在整个3月中持有稳定的积累。

This suggests that larger players are positioning for potential upside, possibly expecting a broader market recovery to lift memecoins like Dogecoin.

这表明，较大的玩家正在定位潜在的上行空间，可能希望更广泛的市场恢复能够取消像Dogecoin这样的模因。

Source: Santiment

资料来源：santiment

Dogecoin still under pressure

狗狗币仍在压力下

Despite promising long-term signs, DOGE remains below both the 50 and 200-period moving averages on the 12-hour chart, with the 50 SMA acting as resistance at $0.176.

尽管有希望的长期迹象，但Doge仍在12小时图表上的50和200周期移动平均值低于低于50和200的移动平均值，而50 SMA的阻力为0.176美元。

Momentum remains bearish in the near term, but a reclaim of $0.18 could be the first sign of reversal strength, especially if supported by increasing volume and A/D continuation.

在短期内，动量仍然是看跌的，但是$ 0.18的回收可能是逆转力量的第一个迹象，尤其是在增加数量增加和A/D延续的情况下。

Conclusion

结论

Dogecoin is at a key inflection point. With price holding firm above its decade-long ascending channel and large wallets quietly accumulating, the risk-to-reward ratio may favor bulls, especially considering the potential mid-range targets of $0.27 to $0.56 if momentum builds.

Dogecoin处于关键拐点。随着价格持有公司长达十年的上升渠道和大型钱包悄悄地积累，风险与奖励比率可能有利于公牛，尤其是考虑到动量建造的潜在中距离目标为0.27美元至0.56美元。

However, confirmation will only come with a sustained breakout above $0.18, which could serve as a springboard for a more decisive rally.

但是，确认只会在0.18美元以上持续突破，这可以作为更具决定性集会的跳板。