Dogecoin [Doge]表現出彈性的跡象，因為它繼續在關鍵的長期升級渠道上方保持

Dogecoin [Doge]表現出彈性的跡象，因為它繼續在關鍵的長期上升渠道上持有彈性，這激發了人們的猜測，即Memecoin可能處於潛在突破的邊緣。

Dogecoin [DOGE] price has been showing signs of resilience as it continues to trade above a key long-term structure, hinting at a potential breakout scenario.

Dogecoin [Doge]的價格一直表現出彈性的跡象，因為它繼續超過關鍵的長期結構，這暗示了潛在的突破情況。

This analysis explores the technical and on-chain factors that could influence the memecoin’s future direction.

該分析探討了可能影響Memecoin未來方向的技術和鏈上因素。

Dogecoin tests lower boundary of ascending channel

Dogecoin測試上升通道的下邊界

On the macro [1W] chart, Dogecoin remains well-supported above the lower boundary of its long-term ascending channel, which began in 2015.

在宏觀[1W]圖表上，狗狗幣在其長期上升渠道的下邊界上方保持良好的支持，該頻道始於2015年。

This trendline has served as a foundational level, and DOGE has respected this structure throughout previous cycles, rendering it a crucial zone for buyers to defend.

這種趨勢線一直是基礎層面，而Doge在整個以前的周期中都尊重這種結構，這使其成為買家捍衛的關鍵區域。

Source: X

來源：X

The recent pullback brought DOGE to $0.17, just above the 0.786 Fibonacci level $0.18395, a key retracement area that often precedes a rebound if demand accelerates.

最近的回調使門檻提高到0.17美元，略高於0.786斐波那契級別$ 0.18395，這是一個關鍵回收區，如果需求加速，通常在反彈之前。

If history repeats, this could mark the beginning of a move back toward the mid-range of the channel at around $0.56 or even higher toward $2.73, the 1.272 Fib extension, assuming broader market momentum returns.

如果歷史重複，這可能標誌著返回渠道中端的開始，左右為2.73美元，即1.272 FIB擴展名，假設市場動量收益較大。

Trends hint at growing confidence

趨勢暗示著信心越來越大

On-chain data supports this technical structure. The Accumulation/Distribution Line was 20.28 billion DOGE at press time, signaling that long-term holders are continuing to accumulate even as price consolidates.

鏈上數據支持這種技術結構。發稿時，累積/分配線為202.8億次，表明即使價格合併，長期持有人也在繼續積累。

Source: TradingView

資料來源：TradingView

This divergence between price and accumulation often precedes rallies, when buyers are able to mop up sellers and generally exert more control over the balance of trade.

當買家能夠拖延賣方並通常對貿易平衡產生更多控制權，價格和累積之間的這種差異通常在集會之前。

Additionally, Santiment’s cohort distribution data highlights continued demand from large wallets.

此外，Santiment的隊列分佈數據強調了大錢包的持續需求。

Addresses holding [10M–100M DOGE] and [100M–1B DOGE] have seen steady accumulation throughout March, even as mid-sized holders [1M–10M DOGE] saw their balances decrease slightly.

在整個3月，即使中型持有人[1m-11m doge]看到它們的餘額略有下降，地址在整個3月中持有穩定的積累。

This suggests that larger players are positioning for potential upside, possibly expecting a broader market recovery to lift memecoins like Dogecoin.

這表明，較大的玩家正在定位潛在的上行空間，可能希望更廣泛的市場恢復能夠取消像Dogecoin這樣的模因。

Source: Santiment

資料來源：santiment

Dogecoin still under pressure

狗狗幣仍在壓力下

Despite promising long-term signs, DOGE remains below both the 50 and 200-period moving averages on the 12-hour chart, with the 50 SMA acting as resistance at $0.176.

儘管有希望的長期跡象，但Doge仍在12小時圖表上的50和200週期移動平均值低於低於50和200的移動平均值，而50 SMA的阻力為0.176美元。

Momentum remains bearish in the near term, but a reclaim of $0.18 could be the first sign of reversal strength, especially if supported by increasing volume and A/D continuation.

在短期內，動量仍然是看跌的，但是$ 0.18的回收可能是逆轉力量的第一個跡象，尤其是在增加數量增加和A/D延續的情況下。

Conclusion

結論

Dogecoin is at a key inflection point. With price holding firm above its decade-long ascending channel and large wallets quietly accumulating, the risk-to-reward ratio may favor bulls, especially considering the potential mid-range targets of $0.27 to $0.56 if momentum builds.

Dogecoin處於關鍵拐點。隨著價格持有公司長達十年的上升渠道和大型錢包悄悄地積累，風險與獎勵比率可能有利於公牛，尤其是考慮到動量建造的潛在中距離目標為0.27美元至0.56美元。

However, confirmation will only come with a sustained breakout above $0.18, which could serve as a springboard for a more decisive rally.

但是，確認只會在0.18美元以上持續突破，這可以作為更具決定性集會的跳板。