Dogecoin（Doge 3.90％）和Shiba INU（Shib 4.85％）已受到惩罚。你应该买蘸酱吗？

在2024年底上涨至近690亿美元的市值之后，Doge的市值现在不到250亿美元，而Shiba Inu的价格下跌了60％以上。

Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) and Shiba Inu (CRYPTO: SHIB) have been battered recently, and it seems fated that these coins might make another attempt at high prices at some point in the future. But does that mean you should buy the dip with your hard-earned cash today in anticipation of that?

Dogecoin（Crypto：Doge）和Shiba Inu（加密货币：Shib）最近受到了殴打，似乎这些硬币可能在将来的某个时候以高价尝试另一次尝试。但这是否意味着您今天应该用您来之不易的现金购买蘸酱？

If Dogecoin and Shiba Inu were worth buying, they would need to meet several criteria as part of their investment theses.

如果Dogecoin和Shiba Inu值得购买，那么他们将需要符合几个标准，作为其投资论文的一部分。

First, they would need a clear mechanism by which they generate value and pass that value on to investors.

首先，他们需要一种清晰的机制，通过它们产生价值并将其价值传递给投资者。

There's a big problem here. Neither of these two coins can gain in value by anything other than investor sentiment and, more generally, speculative betting on their future prices.

这里有一个大问题。这两枚硬币都无法通过投资者的情绪来获得价值，更普遍地是投机性的投注。

As price creates sentiment and vice versa, the fact that their prices have fallen recently bodes poorly for their prices during the near term.

由于价格会引起人们的情绪，反之亦然，在近期的价格上，他们的价格最近下降了很差的事实。

Second, these coins would need to have a value that could be expected to hold up over the long term.

其次，这些硬币将需要具有长期预期的价值。

On this point, the picture is actually a bit more favorable for Dogecoin and Shiba Inu. They've both been around long enough for investors to expect that they will still be actively traded five years from now, as time hasn't ground them to zero, and there are enough holders that the further passing of time probably won't either.

在这一点上，图片实际上对Dogecoin和Shiba Inu更有利。他们俩都已经足够长时间了，投资者可以期望他们从现在起五年后仍会积极交易，因为时间还没有将它们降至零，而且有足够的持有人，以至于时间的进一步过去也可能不会。

Part of the reason that is true is that they both have a brand value of sorts, stemming from their legacy as meme coins whose values went to the moon (and back) more than once.

真正的原因是，他们俩都具有各种品牌价值，这是由于他们作为模因硬币的遗产而引起的，其价值不止一次地登月（和返回）。

Finally, and this is the hardest of all, to be worth buying, there needs to be a justification for allocating your scarce capital to these coins rather than a significantly safer alternative crypto investment, like Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC).

最后，这是值得购买的最困难的，需要将您的稀缺资本分配给这些硬币，而不是像比特币（Crypto：BTC）这样的更安全的替代加密投资。

During the past five years, that coin's value increased by more than 1,000%. Are you sure that buying Dogecoin or Shiba Inu right now would match that?

在过去的五年中，该硬币的价值增加了​​1,000％以上。您确定现在购买Dogecoin或Shiba Inu是否会与之匹配？

The real dip is yet to come

真正的蘸酱尚未到来

One of the magical things about meme coins is that their price can go down by 60% in a few months, only to then drop another 60% in the next few months, and then again, until your money is almost entirely gone.

关于模因硬币的神奇之处之一是，它们的价格在几个月内可以下跌60％，然后在接下来的几个月中再下降60％，然后再一次，直到您的钱几乎完全消失了。

Most investors would then proceed to sell the coins at the very bottom, locking in their losses.

然后，大多数投资者将继续在最底部出售硬币，锁定损失。

Neither Dogecoin nor Shiba Inu have a solution for those two problems. They've both exhibited that same price volatility, much to investors' chagrin. They will do so again, too.

Dogecoin和Shiba Inu都没有解决这两个问题的解决方案。他们俩都表现出同样的价格波动，这对投资者的恼火而言非常重要。他们也会再次这样做。

You could easily buy this dip for both coins, only to see their prices fall even further.

您可以轻松地购买两枚硬币的蘸料，只是看到它们的价格进一步下降。

But what if you bought the next dip, too? Eventually, you'll run out of spare capital and be sitting on hefty losses. If you were then patient, the coins might recover during a speculative binge, which would give you a chance to sell.

但是，如果您也购买了下一个蘸酱怎么办？最终，您将耗尽备用资本，并遇到巨额损失。如果您是耐心的话，硬币可能会在投机性的狂欢期间恢复，这将使您有机会出售。

But hope is not an investment strategy.

但是希望不是投资策略。

Nor is timing the market by buying these coins when their prices appear to be fully bottomed out. By doing that, you're denying yourself the possibility of taking the same action with a safer asset like Bitcoin, which is far more likely to recover, and doesn't need a feverishly speculative environment to flourish in the long term.

当这些硬币的价格似乎完全触底时，购买这些硬币也不是通过购买这些硬币来计时的。通过这样做，您否认自己有可能使用比特币这样的更安全的资产采取相同的行动，该资产更有可能恢复，并且不需要狂热的投机环境即可长期蓬勃发展。

And there's no guarantee that you'll time your purchases accurately, either.

而且不能保证您也可以准确地计时购买。