Dogecoin（Doge）价格更新：多个技术元素已融合，以支持Meme Coin保持正轨的论文

由加密分析师凯文（Kevin）

Crypto analyst Kevin has provided an update on Dogecoin’s price structure, highlighting how multiple technical elements have converged to support his thesis that the meme coin remains on track despite recent volatility. The chart, which he first shared two weeks ago, reveals a confluence of Fibonacci retracement levels, descending yellow macro trend lines, and the positioning of the 200-week SMA (Simple Moving Average) and EMA (Exponential Moving Average).

加密分析师凯文（Kevin）提供了有关Dogecoin的价格结构的最新消息，强调了多个技术要素如何融合以支持他的论文，即尽管最近波动率，Meme硬币仍然可以正常进行。他两周前首次共享的图表揭示了斐波那契回回的水平，降黄色宏趋势线下降，以及200周SMA（简单移动平均线）和EMA（指数移动平均线）的定位。

Dogecoin Follows ‘The Plan’

Dogecoin遵循“计划”

According to Kevin, these converging signals have collectively allowed Dogecoin to perform a critical macro back test, a process that—if successful—can often transition a market from a corrective phase into a new, more bullish phase. “We still got work to do folks but so far it’s all going to plan for Dogecoin,” Kevin wrote today via X.

根据凯文（Kevin）的说法，这些融合的信号已允许Dogecoin执行关键的宏观回测测试，如果成功的话，这一过程通常可以将市场从纠正阶段转变为一个新的，更乐观的阶段。凯文（Kevin）今天通过X写道：“我们仍然开始工作，但到目前为止，这一切都将为Dogecoin计划。”

Central to his view is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level around $0.15382, which Dogecoin is currently hovering near. Derived from the coin’s larger swing high, the 0.5 retracement typically denotes a point of equilibrium in a bigger market move.

他认为的核心是0.5美元的斐波那契回撤水平约为$ 0.15382，而Dogecoin目前正徘徊在附近。 0.5回波源自硬币较大的挥杆高，通常表示在更大的市场移动中的平衡点。

This level also intersects with the yellow downward-sloping trend lines that have defined the macro resistance for Dogecoin since its earlier bull market peaks. The synergy between this retracement level and the trend line retest is a key reason Kevin believes the pullback remains orderly and “all going to plan.” Farther above, Dogecoin’s next Fibonacci milestone is the 0.236 level near $0.28013 (red horizontal band) that would likely need to be overcome for a more definitive uptrend to develop.

该水平也与黄色向下倾斜的趋势线相交，这些趋势线定义了Dogecoin以来的宏观阻力。凯文（Kevin）认为回调仍然有序，并且“全部计划计划”之间的关键原因。更远的是，Dogecoin的下一个斐波那契里程碑是0.236水平接近$ 0.28013（红色的水平频段），这可能需要克服，以使更确定的上升趋势要发展。

Below current trading ranges, the chart highlights a cluster of potential support levels, including the 0.618 Fibonacci marker around $0.11767 and the 0.65 retracement near $0.10924. Although there is no guarantee Dogecoin’s price will drop to these thresholds, Kevin maintains that if further consolidation were to occur, the coin might find stability in that zone.

在当前交易范围内，该图表突出了一系列潜在的支持水平，包括0.618斐波那契标记物约为0.11767美元，而0.65回撤位于$ 0.10924。尽管不能保证Dogecoin的价格会降至这些阈值，但凯文坚持认为，如果要进一步合并，则硬币可能会在该区域内找到稳定性。

Additional deeper retracement points include the 0.786 level around $0.08035 and the 1.0 extension down near $0.04942—areas that, in previous cycles, provided meaningful bounces for tokens experiencing prolonged corrections.

额外的更深层次回答点包括0.786级别约0.08035美元和1.0延伸量接近$ 0.04942，这是在先前的周期中为代币提供了延长校正的有意义的弹跳。

Meanwhile, the weekly moving averages in blue on the chart, specifically the 200-week SMA and EMA, offer further context for longer-term sentiment. They are currently running just below Dogecoin’s spot price, forming another layer of support.

同时，图表上的每周移动平均值，特别是200周的SMA和EMA，为长期情感提供了进一步的背景。他们目前的运行距离低于Dogecoin的现货价格，形成了另一层支持。

Kevin’s analysis also cites momentum data from the 3 Day RSI (Relative Strength Index), indicating that RSI readings have been near historically low levels for Dogecoin. Low RSI readings can sometimes suggest a market is oversold, which in turn raises the prospect of a relief rally or broader turnaround if other bullish catalysts emerge.

凯文（Kevin）的分析还引用了3天RSI（相对强度指数）的动量数据，表明RSI读数在历史上对Dogecoin的水平接近。 RSI读数低，有时可能表明市场过多，这反过来又增加了如果其他看涨催化剂出现，则会引起救济集会或更广泛的周转的前景。

He referenced four focal points he first identified in a post two weeks prior: the retest of the macro 0.5 Fibonacci zone, the descending trend line confluence, the back test of the 200-week SMA and EMA, and the notably low RSI values. He further emphasized that Bitcoin’s overall resilience, along with the evolution of macroeconomic data and central bank monetary policy, could shape whether Dogecoin’s price can capitalize on these technical signals.

他提到了他在两个星期前首次确定的四个焦点：宏观0.5斐波那契区的重新测试，降低趋势线汇合，200周SMA和EMA的后测试以及尤其是RSI值较低。他进一步强调，比特币的整体弹性以及宏观经济数据的演变和中央银行的货币政策，可以塑造Dogecoin的价格是否可以利用这些技术信号。

“If BTC holds up and Macro Economic Data and Monetary policy adjust then you just got your last opportunity to buy Dogecoin relatively cheap. A lot of factors at play and lots of work to do But the risk reward at this level is superb given the circumstances,” Kevin concluded two weeks ago.

凯文（Kevin）在两周前总结说：“如果BTC坚持下去，宏观经济数据和货币政策进行调整，那么您刚刚获得了相对便宜购买Dogecoin的最后机会。凯文（Kevin）在两周前总结说。

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.1885.

发稿时，Doge的交易价格为0.1885美元。