Dogecoin（Doge）價格更新：多個技術元素已融合，以支持Meme Coin保持正軌的論文

由加密分析師凱文（Kevin）

Crypto analyst Kevin has provided an update on Dogecoin’s price structure, highlighting how multiple technical elements have converged to support his thesis that the meme coin remains on track despite recent volatility. The chart, which he first shared two weeks ago, reveals a confluence of Fibonacci retracement levels, descending yellow macro trend lines, and the positioning of the 200-week SMA (Simple Moving Average) and EMA (Exponential Moving Average).

加密分析師凱文（Kevin）提供了有關Dogecoin的價格結構的最新消息，強調了多個技術要素如何融合以支持他的論文，即儘管最近波動率，Meme硬幣仍然可以正常進行。他兩週前首次共享的圖表揭示了斐波那契回回的水平，降黃色宏趨勢線下降，以及200週SMA（簡單移動平均線）和EMA（指數移動平均線）的定位。

Dogecoin Follows ‘The Plan’

Dogecoin遵循“計劃”

According to Kevin, these converging signals have collectively allowed Dogecoin to perform a critical macro back test, a process that—if successful—can often transition a market from a corrective phase into a new, more bullish phase. “We still got work to do folks but so far it’s all going to plan for Dogecoin,” Kevin wrote today via X.

根據凱文（Kevin）的說法，這些融合的信號已允許Dogecoin執行關鍵的宏觀回測測試，如果成功的話，這一過程通常可以將市場從糾正階段轉變為一個新的，更樂觀的階段。凱文（Kevin）今天通過X寫道：“我們仍然開始工作，但到目前為止，這一切都將為Dogecoin計劃。”

Central to his view is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level around $0.15382, which Dogecoin is currently hovering near. Derived from the coin’s larger swing high, the 0.5 retracement typically denotes a point of equilibrium in a bigger market move.

他認為的核心是0.5美元的斐波那契回撤水平約為$ 0.15382，而Dogecoin目前正徘徊在附近。 0.5回波源自硬幣較大的揮桿高，通常表示在更大的市場移動中的平衡點。

This level also intersects with the yellow downward-sloping trend lines that have defined the macro resistance for Dogecoin since its earlier bull market peaks. The synergy between this retracement level and the trend line retest is a key reason Kevin believes the pullback remains orderly and “all going to plan.” Farther above, Dogecoin’s next Fibonacci milestone is the 0.236 level near $0.28013 (red horizontal band) that would likely need to be overcome for a more definitive uptrend to develop.

該水平也與黃色向下傾斜的趨勢線相交，這些趨勢線定義了Dogecoin以來的宏觀阻力。凱文（Kevin）認為回調仍然有序，並且“全部計劃計劃”之間的關鍵原因。更遠的是，Dogecoin的下一個斐波那契里程碑是0.236水平接近$ 0.28013（紅色的水平頻段），這可能需要克服，以使更確定的上升趨勢要發展。

Below current trading ranges, the chart highlights a cluster of potential support levels, including the 0.618 Fibonacci marker around $0.11767 and the 0.65 retracement near $0.10924. Although there is no guarantee Dogecoin’s price will drop to these thresholds, Kevin maintains that if further consolidation were to occur, the coin might find stability in that zone.

在當前交易範圍內，該圖表突出了一系列潛在的支持水平，包括0.618斐波那契標記物約為0.11767美元，而0.65回撤位於$ 0.10924。儘管不能保證Dogecoin的價格會降至這些閾值，但凱文堅持認為，如果要進一步合併，則硬幣可能會在該區域內找到穩定性。

Additional deeper retracement points include the 0.786 level around $0.08035 and the 1.0 extension down near $0.04942—areas that, in previous cycles, provided meaningful bounces for tokens experiencing prolonged corrections.

額外的更深層次回答點包括0.786級別約0.08035美元和1.0延伸量接近$ 0.04942，這是在先前的周期中為代幣提供了延長校正的有意義的彈跳。

Meanwhile, the weekly moving averages in blue on the chart, specifically the 200-week SMA and EMA, offer further context for longer-term sentiment. They are currently running just below Dogecoin’s spot price, forming another layer of support.

同時，圖表上的每週移動平均值，特別是200週的SMA和EMA，為長期情感提供了進一步的背景。他們目前的運行距離低於Dogecoin的現貨價格，形成了另一層支持。

Kevin’s analysis also cites momentum data from the 3 Day RSI (Relative Strength Index), indicating that RSI readings have been near historically low levels for Dogecoin. Low RSI readings can sometimes suggest a market is oversold, which in turn raises the prospect of a relief rally or broader turnaround if other bullish catalysts emerge.

凱文（Kevin）的分析還引用了3天RSI（相對強度指數）的動量數據，表明RSI讀數在歷史上對Dogecoin的水平接近。 RSI讀數低，有時可能表明市場過多，這反過來又增加瞭如果其他看漲催化劑出現，則會引起救濟集會或更廣泛的周轉的前景。

He referenced four focal points he first identified in a post two weeks prior: the retest of the macro 0.5 Fibonacci zone, the descending trend line confluence, the back test of the 200-week SMA and EMA, and the notably low RSI values. He further emphasized that Bitcoin’s overall resilience, along with the evolution of macroeconomic data and central bank monetary policy, could shape whether Dogecoin’s price can capitalize on these technical signals.

他提到了他在兩個星期前首次確定的四個焦點：宏觀0.5斐波那契區的重新測試，降低趨勢線匯合，200週SMA和EMA的後測試以及尤其是RSI值較低。他進一步強調，比特幣的整體彈性以及宏觀經濟數據的演變和中央銀行的貨幣政策，可以塑造Dogecoin的價格是否可以利用這些技術信號。

“If BTC holds up and Macro Economic Data and Monetary policy adjust then you just got your last opportunity to buy Dogecoin relatively cheap. A lot of factors at play and lots of work to do But the risk reward at this level is superb given the circumstances,” Kevin concluded two weeks ago.

凱文（Kevin）在兩週前總結說：“如果BTC堅持下去，宏觀經濟數據和貨幣政策進行調整，那麼您剛剛獲得了相對便宜購買Dogecoin的最後機會。凱文（Kevin）在兩週前總結說。

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.1885.

發稿時，Doge的交易價格為0.1885美元。