Dogecoin（Doge）价格跌跌撞撞，但是可以恢复吗？

Dogecoin最近面临一系列挫折，包括失败的突破尝试导致其价格下降。

Dogecoin price has faced a series of setbacks recently, including a failed breakout attempt that led to a decline in its price. This downward movement was further exacerbated by a recent comment from Elon Musk, which cast doubt on Dogecoin’s future.

Dogecoin Price最近面临一系列挫折，包括失败的突破尝试导致价格下降。埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）最近发表的评论进一步加剧了这一下降运动，这对狗狗币的未来产生了怀疑。

However, despite these challenges, the altcoin is showing some signs of recovery, largely driven by long-term holders (LTHs) who accumulate more DOGE at current low prices.

但是，尽管面临这些挑战，但替代币仍显示出一些恢复的迹象，这在很大程度上是由长期持有人（LTHS）驱动的，他们以当前低价积累了更多的门槛。

Elon Musk’s comment on Dogecoin

埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）对Dogecoin的评论

Recently, Elon Musk took to X, formerly Twitter, to clarify that the US government has no plans to use Dogecoin for any purposes.

最近，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）登上了X，以前是Twitter，以澄清美国政府没有计划将Dogecoin用于任何目的。

His statement came in response to a rumor circulating on the platform. A user had claimed that the government is planning to integrate Dogecoin into its systems for services like taxes and social programs by 2024.

他的声明是回应平台上流传的谣言。用户声称，政府计划在2024年之前将Dogecoin整合到其系统中的系统中。

However, Musk intervened to debunk this rumour, stating that it is not true. He specifically mentioned that the government is not using or integrating Dogecoin in any capacity.

但是，马斯克干预了这个谣言，并说这不是真的。他特别提到，政府没有以任何有能力使用或整合狗狗币。

Network Value to Transaction (NVT)

交易的网络价值（NVT）

Dogecoin’s Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio has spiked significantly, reaching a three-month high. This suggests that the network’s value does not match the number of transactions, which could be a sign of a lack of investor confidence.

Dogecoin与交易（NVT）比率的网络价值显着升高，达到了三个月的高度。这表明网络的价值与交易数量不符，这可能表明缺乏投资者信心。

As the chart shows, Dogecoin’s NVT ratio has experienced a rapid increase from around 100 to a peak of over 600 in the past three months alone. This substantial surge is a strong indicator that the network’s value is outpacing the level of transactional activity.

如图所示，仅在过去三个月中，Dogecoin的NVT比率从大约100到600多个峰值迅速增加。这种大量激增表明，网络的价值超过了交易活动的水平。

In essence, a high NVT ratio can be a signal of a lackadaisical market, where investors are largely indifferent and transactional activity remains low despite large sums of cryptocurrency in the network. Conversely, a low NVT ratio is often observed in bull markets.

从本质上讲，高NVT比率可能是一个缺乏的市场的信号，尽管网络中的加密货币大量的加密货币，但投资者在很大程度上漠不关心，交易活动仍然很低。相反，在牛市经常观察到低NVT比率。

At present, Dogecoin is exhibiting the characteristics of a bear market, with low transactional volume and a high NVT ratio. This aligns with the recent narrative surrounding Dogecoin, which has seen limited price movements and a lack of significant news to drive market action.

目前，Dogecoin表现出熊市的特征，其交易量低，NVT比率很高。这与最近围绕Dogecoin的叙述相吻合，Dogecoin的价格变动有限，并且缺乏推动市场行动的重要消息。

Despite some signs of recovery in the market, LTHs are largely indifferent to the current market trends and continue to accumulate more DOGE.

尽管市场上有一些恢复的迹象，但LTHS在很大程度上对当前市场趋势却无动于衷，并继续积累更多的门槛。

Despite some signs of recovery, LTHs are largely indifferent to the current market trends and continue to accumulate more DOGE.

尽管有一些恢复的迹象，但LTHS在很大程度上对当前市场趋势却无动于衷，并继续积累更多的门槛。

This is evident in the recent spike in the Hodler Net Position Change. LTHs have been actively scooping up DOGE during the recent dip, which is a strong indicator of their conviction in the long-term potential of this cryptocurrency.

这在最近在霍德勒净位置变化的尖峰中很明显。在最近的浸入过程中，LTH一直在积极地铲起马诺，这是他们在这种加密货币的长期潜力中信念的有力指标。

This accumulation is crucial as it provides a level of support for the coin. It helps prevent further price declines and sets the stage for a recovery once the market momentum shifts.

这种积累至关重要，因为它为硬币提供了一定程度的支持。它有助于防止进一步的价格下降，并在市场动量变化后为恢复奠定基础。

Moreover, the increased position change suggests that LTHs are not fazed by recent market turbulence or Elon Musk’s controversial comment about the US government not using any cryptocurrencies.

此外，增加的立场变化表明，lths并不因最近的市场动荡或埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）对美国政府不使用任何加密货币的有争议的评论而感到困惑。

These persistent buyers are largely undeterred by the integration rumors or the comment by the Tesla CEO, which had a slight impact on the price of the meme coin.

这些持久的买家在很大程度上并没有被融合谣言或特斯拉首席执行官的评论所掩盖，这对模因硬币的价格略有影响。

Dogecoin price outlook

Dogecoin价格前景

Dogecoin is currently trading at $0.163, with the price just below the support level of $0.164. Over the last five days, the coin has experienced a 16% decline following a failed attempt to break through the $0.198 resistance level.

Dogecoin目前的交易价格为0.163美元，价格低于支撑级别0.164美元。在过去的五天中，由于试图突破0.198美元的电阻水平，硬币的下降幅度下降了16％。

This failure to breach key resistance levels indicates that DOGE may not experience immediate price gains without external catalysts.

这种未能违反关键阻力水平表明，如果没有外部催化剂，门槛可能不会立即获得价格上涨。

Given the current market conditions, it’s likely that Dogecoin will not experience significant declines in the near future. The coin may reclaim $0.164 as support and continue consolidating just below the $0.198 resistance. However, this consolidation could persist until stronger market cues emerge to push the price higher.

鉴于当前的市场状况，在不久的将来，Dogecoin可能不会出现大幅下降。硬币可能会收回0.164美元的支持，并继续合并略低于0.198美元的电阻。但是，这种整合可能会持续存在，直到更强大的市场提示出现以提高价格为止。

The only scenario in which this bullish-neutral outlook would be invalidated is if Elon Musk’s comment causes further damage to DOGE’s price. In that case, the meme coin could dip to $0.147, extending its recent losses. A sustained downturn would signal more negative sentiment in the market and potentially halt Dogecoin’s recovery.

唯一使这种看涨的中立前景无效的情况是，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）的评论对总督的价格造成了进一步的损害。在这种情况下，模因硬币可能会降至0.147美元，从而扩大了最近的损失。持续的衰退将表明市场上更多的负面情绪，并有可能停止多霉素的恢复。