Dogecoin（Doge）價格跌跌撞撞，但是可以恢復嗎？

Dogecoin最近面臨一系列挫折，包括失敗的突破嘗試導致其價格下降。

Dogecoin price has faced a series of setbacks recently, including a failed breakout attempt that led to a decline in its price. This downward movement was further exacerbated by a recent comment from Elon Musk, which cast doubt on Dogecoin’s future.

Dogecoin Price最近面臨一系列挫折，包括失敗的突破嘗試導致價格下降。埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）最近發表的評論進一步加劇了這一下降運動，這對狗狗幣的未來產生了懷疑。

However, despite these challenges, the altcoin is showing some signs of recovery, largely driven by long-term holders (LTHs) who accumulate more DOGE at current low prices.

但是，儘管面臨這些挑戰，但替代幣仍顯示出一些恢復的跡象，這在很大程度上是由長期持有人（LTHS）驅動的，他們以當前低價積累了更多的門檻。

Elon Musk’s comment on Dogecoin

埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）對Dogecoin的評論

Recently, Elon Musk took to X, formerly Twitter, to clarify that the US government has no plans to use Dogecoin for any purposes.

最近，埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）登上了X，以前是Twitter，以澄清美國政府沒有計劃將Dogecoin用於任何目的。

His statement came in response to a rumor circulating on the platform. A user had claimed that the government is planning to integrate Dogecoin into its systems for services like taxes and social programs by 2024.

他的聲明是回應平台上流傳的謠言。用戶聲稱，政府計劃在2024年之前將Dogecoin整合到其係統中的系統中。

However, Musk intervened to debunk this rumour, stating that it is not true. He specifically mentioned that the government is not using or integrating Dogecoin in any capacity.

但是，馬斯克乾預了這個謠言，並說這不是真的。他特別提到，政府沒有以任何有能力使用或整合狗狗幣。

Network Value to Transaction (NVT)

交易的網絡價值（NVT）

Dogecoin’s Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio has spiked significantly, reaching a three-month high. This suggests that the network’s value does not match the number of transactions, which could be a sign of a lack of investor confidence.

Dogecoin與交易（NVT）比率的網絡價值顯著升高，達到了三個月的高度。這表明網絡的價值與交易數量不符，這可能表明缺乏投資者信心。

As the chart shows, Dogecoin’s NVT ratio has experienced a rapid increase from around 100 to a peak of over 600 in the past three months alone. This substantial surge is a strong indicator that the network’s value is outpacing the level of transactional activity.

如圖所示，僅在過去三個月中，Dogecoin的NVT比率從大約100到600多個峰值迅速增加。這種大量激增表明，網絡的價值超過了交易活動的水平。

In essence, a high NVT ratio can be a signal of a lackadaisical market, where investors are largely indifferent and transactional activity remains low despite large sums of cryptocurrency in the network. Conversely, a low NVT ratio is often observed in bull markets.

從本質上講，高NVT比率可能是一個缺乏的市場的信號，儘管網絡中的加密貨幣大量的加密貨幣，但投資者在很大程度上漠不關心，交易活動仍然很低。相反，在牛市經常觀察到低NVT比率。

At present, Dogecoin is exhibiting the characteristics of a bear market, with low transactional volume and a high NVT ratio. This aligns with the recent narrative surrounding Dogecoin, which has seen limited price movements and a lack of significant news to drive market action.

目前，Dogecoin表現出熊市的特徵，其交易量低，NVT比率很高。這與最近圍繞Dogecoin的敘述相吻合，Dogecoin的價格變動有限，並且缺乏推動市場行動的重要消息。

Despite some signs of recovery in the market, LTHs are largely indifferent to the current market trends and continue to accumulate more DOGE.

儘管市場上有一些恢復的跡象，但LTHS在很大程度上對當前市場趨勢卻無動於衷，並繼續積累更多的門檻。

Despite some signs of recovery, LTHs are largely indifferent to the current market trends and continue to accumulate more DOGE.

儘管有一些恢復的跡象，但LTHS在很大程度上對當前市場趨勢卻無動於衷，並繼續積累更多的門檻。

This is evident in the recent spike in the Hodler Net Position Change. LTHs have been actively scooping up DOGE during the recent dip, which is a strong indicator of their conviction in the long-term potential of this cryptocurrency.

這在最近在霍德勒淨位置變化的尖峰中很明顯。在最近的浸入過程中，LTH一直在積極地鏟起馬諾，這是他們在這種加密貨幣的長期潛力中信念的有力指標。

This accumulation is crucial as it provides a level of support for the coin. It helps prevent further price declines and sets the stage for a recovery once the market momentum shifts.

這種積累至關重要，因為它為硬幣提供了一定程度的支持。它有助於防止進一步的價格下降，並在市場動量變化後為恢復奠定基礎。

Moreover, the increased position change suggests that LTHs are not fazed by recent market turbulence or Elon Musk’s controversial comment about the US government not using any cryptocurrencies.

此外，增加的立場變化表明，lths並不因最近的市場動盪或埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）對美國政府不使用任何加密貨幣的有爭議的評論而感到困惑。

These persistent buyers are largely undeterred by the integration rumors or the comment by the Tesla CEO, which had a slight impact on the price of the meme coin.

這些持久的買家在很大程度上並沒有被融合謠言或特斯拉首席執行官的評論所掩蓋，這對模因硬幣的價格略有影響。

Dogecoin price outlook

Dogecoin價格前景

Dogecoin is currently trading at $0.163, with the price just below the support level of $0.164. Over the last five days, the coin has experienced a 16% decline following a failed attempt to break through the $0.198 resistance level.

Dogecoin目前的交易價格為0.163美元，價格低於支撐級別0.164美元。在過去的五天中，由於試圖突破0.198美元的電阻水平，硬幣的下降幅度下降了16％。

This failure to breach key resistance levels indicates that DOGE may not experience immediate price gains without external catalysts.

這種未能違反關鍵阻力水平表明，如果沒有外部催化劑，門檻可能不會立即獲得價格上漲。

Given the current market conditions, it’s likely that Dogecoin will not experience significant declines in the near future. The coin may reclaim $0.164 as support and continue consolidating just below the $0.198 resistance. However, this consolidation could persist until stronger market cues emerge to push the price higher.

鑑於當前的市場狀況，在不久的將來，Dogecoin可能不會出現大幅下降。硬幣可能會收回0.164美元的支持，並繼續合併略低於0.198美元的電阻。但是，這種整合可能會持續存在，直到更強大的市場提示出現以提高價格為止。

The only scenario in which this bullish-neutral outlook would be invalidated is if Elon Musk’s comment causes further damage to DOGE’s price. In that case, the meme coin could dip to $0.147, extending its recent losses. A sustained downturn would signal more negative sentiment in the market and potentially halt Dogecoin’s recovery.

唯一使這種看漲的中立前景無效的情況是，埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）的評論對總督的價格造成了進一步的損害。在這種情況下，模因硬幣可能會降至0.147美元，從而擴大了最近的損失。持續的衰退將表明市場上更多的負面情緒，並有可能停止多黴素的恢復。