狗狗币 (DOGE) 价格分析：NVT 比率暗示下降趋势出现时潜在的高估

狗狗币（DOGE）最近的价格走势非常戏剧性，这种流行的模因币飙升至上个月的最高点之一，然后经历了急剧逆转。

Dogecoin’s recent price action has been dramatic, with the popular meme coin surging to one of its highest points in the last month before experiencing a sharp reversal. This volatility has left investors questioning how low the asset might drop if this bearish trend continues.

狗狗币最近的价格走势非常戏剧性，这种流行的模因币飙升至上个月的最高点之一，然后经历了急剧逆转。这种波动性让投资者质疑，如果这种看跌趋势持续下去，资产可能会跌至多低。

Analyzing DOGE’s price trend, the NVT (Network Value to Transaction) ratio, and overall market sentiment provides some insight into the potential direction of the coin in the coming days.

分析 DOGE 的价格趋势、NVT（网络价值与交易）比率以及整体市场情绪，可以为该代币未来几天的潜在方向提供一些见解。

Price trend signals possible downtrend for Dogecoin

价格趋势表明狗狗币可能呈下降趋势

Dogecoin’s price chart shows a noticeable downtrend after its recent peak.

狗狗币的价格图表显示，在最近的峰值之后出现了明显的下降趋势。

Following the bullish run that pushed it to a high of $0.17976, the asset has fallen back, trading near $0.15048 at the time of writing. This drop is accompanied by declining trading volume, suggesting that buying momentum has weakened.

在牛市将其推至 0.17976 美元高点之后，该资产已回落，截至撰写本文时交易价格接近 0.15048 美元。这一下降伴随着交易量的下降，表明购买动力已经减弱。

The MACD indicator, which had recently shown bullish momentum, has started to flatten, indicating a potential shift toward bearish dominance.

最近显示出看涨势头的 MACD 指标已开始趋于平缓，表明可能转向看跌主导地位。

Source: TradingView

来源：TradingView

The RSI also hovers near the 56.63 mark, shifting from overbought levels. If this trend continues, Dogecoin could test the key support levels at the 0.382 ($0.14970) and 0.5 ($0.14042) Fibonacci retracement levels.

RSI 也徘徊在 56.63 附近，脱离超买水平。如果这种趋势持续下去，狗狗币可能会测试 0.382（0.14970 美元）和 0.5（0.14042 美元）斐波那契回撤位的关键支撑位。

Rising NVT ratio hints at potential Dogecoin overvaluation

NVT 比率上升暗示狗狗币可能被高估

The Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio for Dogecoin has also been a crucial metric to observe. Historically, Dogecoin’s NVT ratio has had peaks and valleys, with higher peaks often correlating to market sell-offs.

狗狗币的网络价值与交易（NVT）比率也是一个需要观察的关键指标。从历史上看，狗狗币的 NVT 比率有过高峰和低谷，较高的峰值通常与市场抛售相关。

Source: Santiment

资料来源：Santiment

The recent spike in the NVT ratio indicates a possible overvaluation relative to the current transaction volume, which could signal a further price correction.

最近 NVT 比率的飙升表明相对于当前交易量可能存在高估，这可能预示着价格进一步调整。

A high NVT ratio can reflect an increased valuation without a corresponding rise in transaction volume, potentially highlighting investor speculation rather than organic network usage.

高 NVT 比率可以反映估值的增加，而交易量却没有相应增加，这可能凸显投资者的投机行为，而不是有机的网络使用情况。

If this indicator continues to rise, it may suggest further downside risks for Dogecoin.

如果该指标继续上升，可能表明狗狗币存在进一步下行风险。

Key levels to watch amidst bearish sentiment

看跌情绪中值得关注的关键水平

In addition to the support levels mentioned, traders are likely keeping a close eye on the 50-day and 200-day moving averages for Dogecoin, which sit around $0.12409 and $0.12724, respectively.

除了提到的支撑位之外，交易者可能还会密切关注狗狗币的 50 天和 200 天移动平均线，分别约为 0.12409 美元和 0.12724 美元。

A breakdown below these averages could trigger additional selling pressure, pushing DOGE to revisit the $0.12 range. Conversely, if DOGE can stabilize around the $0.15 level, it may signal that the recent downtrend is nearing exhaustion.

跌破这些平均值可能会引发额外的抛售压力，推动 DOGE 重新回到 0.12 美元的区间。相反，如果DOGE能够稳定在0.15美元附近，则可能预示着近期的下跌趋势已接近耗尽。

Is your portfolio green? Check out the Dogecoin Profit Calculator

您的投资组合是绿色的吗？查看狗狗币利润计算器

However, with the current market sentiment and the heightened NVT ratio, the downside appears more likely in the short term.

然而，鉴于当前的市场情绪和 NVT 比率的提高，短期内下行的可能性似乎更大。

Dogecoin’s recent price trend and elevated NVT ratio suggest a challenging road ahead. If bearish sentiment persists, Dogecoin may retest lower support levels before finding a stable ground.

狗狗币最近的价格趋势和 NVT 比率的上升表明未来的道路充满挑战。如果看跌情绪持续存在，狗狗币可能会在找到稳定的基础之前重新测试较低的支撑位。