狗狗币 (DOGE) MVRV 比率触及超卖区域，标志着潜在的买入区

狗狗币（DOGE）再次成为市场观察者的焦点，根据数据显示，“街头血腥”时刻正在出现

On-chain analytics firm Santiment has highlighted a “blood in the streets” moment in the crypto market, with several assets, including Dogecoin (DOGE), posting negative MVRV ratios.

链上分析公司 Santiment 强调了加密货币市场的“街头血腥”时刻，包括狗狗币 (DOGE) 在内的多种资产的 MVRV 比率为负值。

According to Santiment's analysis, on-chain metrics currently indicate an environment where many crypto assets are trading in oversold territory. The firm's research highlights a series of negative MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratios across the crypto landscape, encompassing BTC, ETH, ADA, and DOGE.

根据 Santiment 的分析，链上指标目前表明许多加密资产的交易环境处于超卖区域。该公司的研究强调了整个加密领域的一系列负 MVRV（市场价值与已实现价值）比率，包括 BTC、ETH、ADA 和 DOGE。

“When MVRV’s are negative, this means a buy or addition to your holding is doing so while others are already at a loss. Historically, these ‘blood in the streets’ moments are when professional traders make money,” Santiment writes.

“当 MVRV 为负值时，这意味着您正在买入或增持所持股份，而其他人已经处于亏损状态。从历史上看，这些‘街头血腥’的时刻就是专业交易者赚钱的时刻，”桑蒂门特写道。

The data published by Santiment includes the 30-day MVRV ratios for four major assets as of January 8. Bitcoin's MVRV ratio is at -3.73%, Ethereum's at -7.71%, Cardano's at -6.69% and Dogecoin's at -8.89%.

Santiment公布的数据包括截至1月8日四种主要资产的30天MVRV比率。比特币的MVRV比率为-3.73%，以太坊为-7.71%，卡尔达诺为-6.69%，狗狗币为-8.89%。

In simple terms, MVRV compares the total market capitalization of a cryptocurrency (its “Market Value”) with the total cost basis of holders (its “Realized Value”). A negative MVRV often indicates that the average holder is currently at a loss on their position.

简而言之，MVRV 将加密货币的总市值（其“市场价值”）与持有者的总成本基础（其“实际价值”）进行比较。 MVRV 为负值通常表明普通持有者目前的头寸处于亏损状态。

For Dogecoin, the -8.89% MVRV ratio suggests that — on average — investors who acquired DOGE in the last 30 days are sitting on notable unrealized losses. This contrasts with BTC's less pronounced -3.73%, indicating that Dogecoin's short-term holders are, on average, deeper in the red relative to Bitcoin's.

对于狗狗币来说，-8.89% 的 MVRV 比率表明，平均而言，在过去 30 天内购买 DOGE 的投资者正面临着显着的未实现损失。这与 BTC 不太明显的 -3.73% 形成鲜明对比，表明狗狗币的短期持有者平均而言比比特币的亏损更深。

While both ETH (-7.71%) and ADA (-6.69%) are also in negative MVRV territory, their holders are faring slightly better than DOGE's over the past month.

虽然 ETH (-7.71%) 和 ADA (-6.69%) 也处于负 MVRV 区域，但它们的持有者在过去一个月的表现略好于 DOGE。

Given that DOGE's MVRV is the most negative among the four mentioned, there is potential for a stronger recovery bounce if market conditions stabilize. However, it also underscores higher risk if broader crypto sentiment remains fragile. As Santiment noted, traders often scan for negative MVRV as a potential opportunity to “buy low,” but this is by no means a guarantee of immediate upside.

鉴于 DOGE 的 MVRV 是上述四者中最负面的，如果市场状况稳定，则有可能出现更强劲的复苏反弹。然而，如果更广泛的加密货币情绪仍然脆弱，它也强调了更高的风险。正如 Santiment 指出的那样，交易者经常将负 MVRV 视为“低买”的潜在机会，但这绝不是立即上涨的保证。

Santiment's analysis also touches upon the macroeconomic forces that have been accelerating the crypto market's recent sell-off. On Tuesday, January 7, U.S. bond yields surged following surprisingly strong economic indicators, with the 10-year Treasury rising to 4.67%.

Santiment 的分析还涉及到加速加密货币市场近期抛售的宏观经济力量。 1 月 7 日星期二，由于经济指标出人意料地强劲，美国债券收益率飙升，10 年期国债收益率升至 4.67%。

Much of the market anxiety centered on the higher-than-expected ISM Prices Paid Index, a measure that can foreshadow inflation, and a surprise uptick in the JOLTS job openings data. Faced with signs of labor market strength and possible inflation pressures, investors pivoted to risk-off strategies, hitting crypto assets across the board.

市场焦虑主要集中在高于预期的 ISM 支付价格指数（该指标可以预示通胀）以及 JOLTS 职位空缺数据的意外上升。面对劳动力市场走强的迹象和可能的通胀压力，投资者转向避险策略，全面打击加密资产。

“Crypto markets sink further, indicating short to midterm buy zones for most assets,” reads Santiment's published chart. In this light, Dogecoin's current downturn aligns with the broader market narrative.

Santiment 公布的图表显示，“加密货币市场进一步下跌，表明大多数资产的短期到中期买入区域”。从这个角度来看，狗狗币当前的低迷与更广泛的市场叙述是一致的。

If yields and inflation concerns continue to dominate headlines, we can anticipate more cautious capital flows into risk assets. Conversely, any signal of cooling inflation or a less restrictive stance by the Federal Reserve could spur a rally — one that might be amplified by negative MVRV ratios across the board.

如果对收益率和通胀的担忧继续成为头条新闻，我们可以预期资本流入风险资产时会更加谨慎。相反，任何通胀降温或美联储放松限制立场的信号都可能刺激股市反弹，而全面负的 MVRV 比率可能会放大这一反弹。

However, the contrasting signals make for a tricky trading environment. On one hand, Santiment's metrics point to advantageous historical conditions for those looking to accumulate, especially for DOGE at -8.89% MVRV. On the other, uncertain macro data — ranging from Treasury yields to inflation prints — could hamper any near-term recovery.

然而，对比鲜明的信号造成了一个棘手的交易环境。一方面，Santiment 的指标为那些寻求积累的人指出了有利的历史条件，尤其是 DOGE 的 MVRV 为 -8.89%。另一方面，不确定的宏观数据——从国债收益率到通胀数据——可能会阻碍短期复苏。

For now, Santiment's outlook is measured: “Do not assume these opportunity zone signals will lead to an immediate turnaround. But probabilities are pointing to at least a short to mid term turnaround for crypto shortly, assuming economic or geopolitical factors don’t get in the way.”

目前，桑蒂门特对前景进行了衡量：“不要认为这些机会区信号会立即带来好转。但假设经济或地缘政治因素不妨碍的话，加密货币的可能性至少会在短期到中期出现好转。”

At press time, DOGE trades at $0.33.

截至发稿时，DOGE 交易价格为 0.33 美元。