狗狗幣 (DOGE) MVRV 比率觸及超賣區域，標誌著潛在的買入區域

狗狗幣（DOGE）再次成為市場觀察者的焦點，根據數據顯示，「街頭血腥」時刻正在出現

On-chain analytics firm Santiment has highlighted a “blood in the streets” moment in the crypto market, with several assets, including Dogecoin (DOGE), posting negative MVRV ratios.

鏈上分析公司 Santiment 強調了加密貨幣市場的「街頭血腥」時刻，包括狗狗幣 (DOGE) 在內的多種資產的 MVRV 比率為負值。

According to Santiment's analysis, on-chain metrics currently indicate an environment where many crypto assets are trading in oversold territory. The firm's research highlights a series of negative MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratios across the crypto landscape, encompassing BTC, ETH, ADA, and DOGE.

根據 Santiment 的分析，鏈上指標目前顯示許多加密資產的交易環境處於超賣區域。該公司的研究強調了整個加密領域的一系列負 MVRV（市值與已實現價值）比率，包括 BTC、ETH、ADA 和 DOGE。

“When MVRV’s are negative, this means a buy or addition to your holding is doing so while others are already at a loss. Historically, these ‘blood in the streets’ moments are when professional traders make money,” Santiment writes.

「當 MVRV 為負值時，這表示您正在買入或增持所持股份，而其他人已經處於虧損狀態。從歷史上看，這些『街頭血腥』的時刻就是專業交易者賺錢的時刻，」桑蒂門特寫道。

The data published by Santiment includes the 30-day MVRV ratios for four major assets as of January 8. Bitcoin's MVRV ratio is at -3.73%, Ethereum's at -7.71%, Cardano's at -6.69% and Dogecoin's at -8.89%.

Santiment公佈的數據包括截至1月8日四種主要資產的30天MVRV比率。 8.89%。

In simple terms, MVRV compares the total market capitalization of a cryptocurrency (its “Market Value”) with the total cost basis of holders (its “Realized Value”). A negative MVRV often indicates that the average holder is currently at a loss on their position.

簡而言之，MVRV 將加密貨幣的總市值（其「市值」）與持有者的總成本基礎（其「實際價值」）進行比較。 MVRV 為負值通常表示普通持有者目前的部位處於虧損狀態。

For Dogecoin, the -8.89% MVRV ratio suggests that — on average — investors who acquired DOGE in the last 30 days are sitting on notable unrealized losses. This contrasts with BTC's less pronounced -3.73%, indicating that Dogecoin's short-term holders are, on average, deeper in the red relative to Bitcoin's.

對於狗狗幣來說，-8.89% 的 MVRV 比率表明，平均而言，在過去 30 天內購買 DOGE 的投資者正面臨顯著的未實現損失。這與 BTC 不太明顯的 -3.73% 形成鮮明對比，顯示狗狗幣的短期持有者平均而言比比特幣的虧損更深。

While both ETH (-7.71%) and ADA (-6.69%) are also in negative MVRV territory, their holders are faring slightly better than DOGE's over the past month.

雖然 ETH (-7.71%) 和 ADA (-6.69%) 也處於負 MVRV 區域，但它們的持有者在過去一個月的表現略好於 DOGE。

Given that DOGE's MVRV is the most negative among the four mentioned, there is potential for a stronger recovery bounce if market conditions stabilize. However, it also underscores higher risk if broader crypto sentiment remains fragile. As Santiment noted, traders often scan for negative MVRV as a potential opportunity to “buy low,” but this is by no means a guarantee of immediate upside.

鑑於 DOGE 的 MVRV 是上述四者中最負面的，如果市場狀況穩定，則有可能出現更強勁的復甦反彈。然而，如果更廣泛的加密貨幣情緒仍然脆弱，它也強調了更高的風險。正如 Santiment 指出的那樣，交易者經常將負 MVRV 視為「低買」的潛在機會，但這絕不是立即上漲的保證。

Santiment's analysis also touches upon the macroeconomic forces that have been accelerating the crypto market's recent sell-off. On Tuesday, January 7, U.S. bond yields surged following surprisingly strong economic indicators, with the 10-year Treasury rising to 4.67%.

Santiment 的分析也涉及了加速加密貨幣市場近期拋售的宏觀經濟力量。 1 月 7 日星期二，由於經濟指標出人意料地強勁，美國債券殖利率飆升，10 年期公債殖利率升至 4.67%。

Much of the market anxiety centered on the higher-than-expected ISM Prices Paid Index, a measure that can foreshadow inflation, and a surprise uptick in the JOLTS job openings data. Faced with signs of labor market strength and possible inflation pressures, investors pivoted to risk-off strategies, hitting crypto assets across the board.

市場焦慮主要集中在高於預期的 ISM 支付價格指數（此指標可以預示通膨）以及 JOLTS 職缺數據的意外上升。面對勞動市場走強的跡象和可能的通膨壓力，投資人轉向避險策略，全面打擊加密資產。

“Crypto markets sink further, indicating short to midterm buy zones for most assets,” reads Santiment's published chart. In this light, Dogecoin's current downturn aligns with the broader market narrative.

Santiment 公佈的圖表顯示，「加密貨幣市場進一步下跌，顯示大多數資產的短期到中期買入區域」。從這個角度來看，狗狗幣當前的低迷與更廣泛的市場敘事是一致的。

If yields and inflation concerns continue to dominate headlines, we can anticipate more cautious capital flows into risk assets. Conversely, any signal of cooling inflation or a less restrictive stance by the Federal Reserve could spur a rally — one that might be amplified by negative MVRV ratios across the board.

如果對殖利率和通膨的擔憂繼續成為頭條新聞，我們可以預期資本流入風險資產時會更加謹慎。相反，任何通膨降溫或聯準會放鬆限制立場的訊號都可能刺激股市反彈，而全面負的 MVRV 比率可能會放大這一反彈。

However, the contrasting signals make for a tricky trading environment. On one hand, Santiment's metrics point to advantageous historical conditions for those looking to accumulate, especially for DOGE at -8.89% MVRV. On the other, uncertain macro data — ranging from Treasury yields to inflation prints — could hamper any near-term recovery.

然而，對比鮮明的訊號造成了一個棘手的交易環境。一方面，Santiment 的指標為尋求累積的人指出了有利的歷史條件，尤其是 DOGE 的 MVRV 為 -8.89%。另一方面，不確定的宏觀數據——從國債殖利率到通膨數據——可能會阻礙短期復甦。

For now, Santiment's outlook is measured: “Do not assume these opportunity zone signals will lead to an immediate turnaround. But probabilities are pointing to at least a short to mid term turnaround for crypto shortly, assuming economic or geopolitical factors don’t get in the way.”

目前，桑蒂門特對前景進行了衡量：「不要假設這些機會區訊號會導致立即改善。但假設經濟或地緣政治因素不妨礙的話，加密貨幣的可能性至少會在短期到中期出現好轉。

At press time, DOGE trades at $0.33.

截至發稿時，DOGE 交易價格為 0.33 美元。