12 月 CPI 数据逼近，BTC 期权流显示出谨慎情绪，因为看跌期权跌破 9 万美元关键支撑位

市场即将迎来2025年美国首个重大经济事件：12月CPI数据。随着美联储鹰派担忧的弥漫，以及比特币与科技股的相关性增强，周三的报告对数字资产市场变得更加重要。

Markets are bracing for the first major U.S. economic event of 2023: December CPI data. The print will be closely watched by traders for clues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, especially amid persistent hawkish concerns.

市场正在等待 2023 年美国首个重大经济事件：12 月 CPI 数据。交易员将密切关注该报告，以寻找有关美联储货币政策路径的线索，尤其是在持续鹰派担忧的情况下。

Bitcoin's strengthening correlation with tech stocks has also made Wednesday's report more significant for the digital assets market. The stalled liquidity inflows via stablecoins have also raised questions on the sustainability of price recovery from sub-$90K levels. Hence, traders are bracing for potential downside volatility by adding short-dated puts.

比特币与科技股的相关性增强也使得周三的报告对数字资产市场更加重要。通过稳定币流入的流动性停滞也引发了人们对价格从低于 9 万美元水平复苏的可持续性的质疑。因此，交易者通过增加短期看跌期权来应对潜在的下行波动。

Here’s what experts are saying about the upcoming event:

以下是专家对即将举行的活动的评价：

* QCP Capital: "In crypto, cautious sentiment is evident in BTC options flows, with puts rolled below the key $90k support. Front-end vols and flies remain elevated, while the VIX stays high at 18.68 – suggesting volatility to persist through January."

* QCP Capital：“在加密货币领域，比特币期权流动中明显存在谨慎情绪，看跌期权跌破了 9 万美元的关键支撑位。前端波动率和波动率仍然很高，而波动率指数仍保持在 18.68 的高位 – 这表明波动性将持续到 1 月份”。

* Geoffrey Chen, author of the Fidenza Macro blog: "The rising markets in November and the lifting of election uncertainty pushed business confidence higher, resulting in stronger data. The frontloading of goods imports and the raising of prices to get ahead of tariffs may have also contributed to higher PMIs. On top of that, oil has woken up and rallied over 10% from its December levels, reinforcing the stagflation regime. None of this bodes well for CPI tomorrow [Jan. 15] and the FOMC later this month. These risk events may surprise towards hawkish and stagflationary outcomes, putting more pressure on risk assets.”

* Fidenza Macro 博客作者 Geoffrey Chen：“11 月份市场的上涨和选举不确定性的消除推高了商业信心，从而带来了更强劲的数据。商品进口的提前装载以及为赶在关税之前提高价格可能会除此之外，石油价格已从 12 月的水平上涨超过 10%，这对明天的 CPI 来说并不是一个好兆头。以及本月晚些时候的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC），这些风险事件可能会导致鹰派和滞胀结果，给风险资产带来更大压力。”

* Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research: "Bitcoin continues to trade within a narrowing wedge, with several critical catalysts on the horizon. Expectations for a higher CPI number have risen, creating a scenario where a softer-than-expected inflation reading could trigger a bitcoin rally."

* 10x Research 创始人马库斯·蒂伦 (Markus Thielen)：“比特币继续在窄幅楔形内交易，几个关键催化剂即将出现。对消费者物价指数 (CPI) 上升的预期有所上升，从而可能引发通胀数据低于预期的情况比特币反弹。”

Focus on XRP and AI

关注XRP和AI

XRP surged to $2.90 early today, matching the December high with technical analysis suggesting a continued run higher.

今天早些时候，XRP 飙升至 2.90 美元，与 12 月高点持平，技术分析表明 XRP 将继续走高。

Meanwhile, dip buyers have been active in AI coins, namely FAI, GRASS, VIRTUAL, Ai16z and TAO, according to Wintermute. These coins, therefore, could chalk out bigger gains in case the CPI spurs renewed risk-taking in financial markets.

与此同时，据 Wintermute 称，低价买家一直活跃于人工智能币，即 FAI、GRASS、VIRTUAL、Ai16z 和 TAO。因此，如果消费者物价指数刺激金融市场新一轮的冒险行为，这些代币可能会带来更大的收益。

What to Watch

看什么

Token Events

代币事件

Conferences:

会议：

Token Talk

令牌谈话

By Oliver Knight

奥利弗·奈特

Derivatives Positioning

衍生品仓位

Market Movements:

市场走势：

Bitcoin Stats:

比特币统计：

Technical Analysis

技术分析

Crypto Equities

加密股票

ETF Flows

ETF 流量

Spot BTC ETFs:

现货 BTC ETF：

Spot ETH ETFs

现货 ETH ETF

Source: Farside Investors, as of Jan. 14

资料来源：Farside Investors，截至 1 月 14 日

Overnight Flows

隔夜流量

Chart of the Day

每日图表

While You Were Sleeping

当你熟睡时

In the Ether

在以太中