主要加密货币期权交易所 Deribit 的数据表明，到 2024 年底，比特币达到 10 万美元的可能性有限

这一预测是在隐含波动率相对稳定的情况下做出的，表明短期内预计价格不会出现大幅变化。

Major cryptocurrency options exchange Deribit’s data showed a limited chance of Bitcoin (BTC) reaching $100,000 by the end of 2024, with a probability of only 9.58%. This comes amid relatively stable implied volatility, which suggests that substantial price changes are not expected in the short term.

主要加密货币期权交易所 Deribit 的数据显示，比特币 (BTC) 到 2024 年底达到 10 万美元的可能性有限，概率仅为 9.58%。这是在隐含波动率相对稳定的情况下发生的，这表明短期内预计价格不会出现大幅变化。

Bitcoin Implied Volatility Remains Stable

比特币隐含波动率保持稳定

The Deribit Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) measures anticipated price fluctuations over 30 days and has stayed within 50% to 60% for several months. This period has seen a significant decrease in implied volatility, which had reached 85% in March 2024.

Deribit 比特币隐含波动率指数 (DVOL) 衡量 30 天内的预期价格波动，并连续几个月保持在 50% 至 60% 之间。这一时期隐含波动率大幅下降，2024 年 3 月已达到 85%。

Lower implied volatility indicates that traders are expecting smaller price swings in the future. This contrasts with the high volatility observed earlier in 2024, which was accompanied by substantial price movements.

较低的隐含波动率表明交易者预计未来价格波动较小。这与 2024 年早些时候观察到的高波动性形成鲜明对比，当时价格波动较大。

Bitcoin options allow buyers to transact the asset at set prices by specific dates, depending on their bullish or bearish outlook. In Bitcoin options, a call option represents a bullish approach, granting the right to buy at a predetermined price.

比特币期权允许买家根据他们的看涨或看跌前景，在特定日期以设定价格交易资产。在比特币期权中，看涨期权代表一种看涨方法，授予以预定价格购买的权利。

Meanwhile, a put option allows traders to manage the downside risk, giving them the option to sell a certain amount of BTC at a fixed price within a set period. The probability of BTC reaching $100K relies on volatility models like Black-Scholes, which use inputs such as the current market price, strike price, time to expiration, and the risk-free rate. With the current 50% -60 % volatility range, the chance of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 remains constrained.

与此同时，看跌期权允许交易者管理下行风险，让他们可以选择在设定的时间内以固定价格出售一定数量的比特币。 BTC 达到 10 万美元的概率依赖于 Black-Scholes 等波动率模型，该模型使用当前市场价格、执行价格、到期时间和无风险利率等输入。在目前 50%-60% 的波动范围内，比特币达到 10 万美元的机会仍然受到限制。

While the chance of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 is low, a 22% probability exists for a significant price move — either up or down — by December, suggesting a potential increase to around $80,000.

虽然比特币触及 100,000 美元的可能性很低，但到 12 月，价格出现大幅波动（上涨或下跌）的可能性为 22%，这表明比特币价格可能上涨至 80,000 美元左右。

Bitwise’s head of alpha strategies, Jeff Park, noted a possible surge to $92,000 if former President Donald Trump wins the upcoming election. “This projection is based on an analysis of Bitcoin’s price correlation with Trump’s odds on Polymarket,” Park explained.

Bitwise 的 alpha 策略主管杰夫·帕克 (Jeff Park) 指出，如果前总统唐纳德·特朗普赢得即将到来的选举，其价格可能会飙升至 92,000 美元。 “这一预测是基于对比特币价格与特朗普在 Polymarket 上的赔率相关性的分析，”帕克解释道。

Charting $BTC price against Trump’s odds (via @Polymarket) from 8/15 to 10/20 reveals some wild swings—particularly when Harris and Trump took turns leading. By applying merger arb-style probability math, I project a Trump victory could push BTC to ~$92,000

绘制 8/15 至 10/20 期间比特币价格与特朗普赔率的对比图（来自@Polymarket），显示出一些剧烈的波动——尤其是当哈里斯和特朗普轮流领先时。通过应用合并套利式的概率数学，我预计特朗普的胜利可能会将 BTC 推至约 92,000 美元

Take that as you will pic.twitter.com/OGy8M3Vju1

就这样吧 pic.twitter.com/OGy8M3Vju1

— Jeff Park (@dgt10011) October 22, 2024

— 杰夫·帕克 (@dgt10011) 2024 年 10 月 22 日

Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Hits All-Time High

比特币期货持仓量创历史新高

Open interest in BTC futures reached an all-time high of $40.5 billion on Oct. 21, according to data from Coinglass. The largest cryptocurrency futures exchange, CME, captured the biggest share at 30.7%, followed by Binance at 20.4% and Bybit at 15%.

Coinglass 的数据显示，10 月 21 日，比特币期货的未平仓合约达到 405 亿美元的历史新高。最大的加密货币期货交易所 CME 占据了最大份额，为 30.7%，其次是币安（20.4%）和 Bybit（15%）。

Open interest is the total value of active futures contracts, indicating the amount of leverage and engagement in the futures market. Rising open interest often suggests increased speculation and can foreshadow significant volatility.

未平仓合约是活跃期货合约的总价值，表明期货市场的杠杆程度和参与程度。未平仓合约的增加通常表明投机活动增加，并可能预示着大幅波动。

Periods of high open interest are often accompanied by substantial price movements in either direction, as traders speculate on the future price of Bitcoin. This characteristic makes open interest a crucial metric for analyzing market trends and predicting future price shifts.

当交易者猜测比特币的未来价格时，未平仓量高的时期通常会伴随着任一方向的大幅价格波动。这一特征使得未平仓合约成为分析市场趋势和预测未来价格变动的关键指标。