Data from Deribit, a major cryptocurrency options exchange, suggests a limited chance of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of 2024

This forecast comes amid relatively stable implied volatility, indicating that substantial price changes are not expected in the short term.

Major cryptocurrency options exchange Deribit’s data showed a limited chance of Bitcoin (BTC) reaching $100,000 by the end of 2024, with a probability of only 9.58%. This comes amid relatively stable implied volatility, which suggests that substantial price changes are not expected in the short term.

Bitcoin Implied Volatility Remains Stable

The Deribit Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index (DVOL) measures anticipated price fluctuations over 30 days and has stayed within 50% to 60% for several months. This period has seen a significant decrease in implied volatility, which had reached 85% in March 2024.

Lower implied volatility indicates that traders are expecting smaller price swings in the future. This contrasts with the high volatility observed earlier in 2024, which was accompanied by substantial price movements.

Bitcoin options allow buyers to transact the asset at set prices by specific dates, depending on their bullish or bearish outlook. In Bitcoin options, a call option represents a bullish approach, granting the right to buy at a predetermined price.

Meanwhile, a put option allows traders to manage the downside risk, giving them the option to sell a certain amount of BTC at a fixed price within a set period. The probability of BTC reaching $100K relies on volatility models like Black-Scholes, which use inputs such as the current market price, strike price, time to expiration, and the risk-free rate. With the current 50% -60 % volatility range, the chance of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 remains constrained.

While the chance of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 is low, a 22% probability exists for a significant price move — either up or down — by December, suggesting a potential increase to around $80,000.

Bitwise’s head of alpha strategies, Jeff Park, noted a possible surge to $92,000 if former President Donald Trump wins the upcoming election. “This projection is based on an analysis of Bitcoin’s price correlation with Trump’s odds on Polymarket,” Park explained.

Charting $BTC price against Trump’s odds (via @Polymarket) from 8/15 to 10/20 reveals some wild swings—particularly when Harris and Trump took turns leading. By applying merger arb-style probability math, I project a Trump victory could push BTC to ~$92,000

Take that as you will pic.twitter.com/OGy8M3Vju1

— Jeff Park (@dgt10011) October 22, 2024

Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Hits All-Time High

Open interest in BTC futures reached an all-time high of $40.5 billion on Oct. 21, according to data from Coinglass. The largest cryptocurrency futures exchange, CME, captured the biggest share at 30.7%, followed by Binance at 20.4% and Bybit at 15%.

Open interest is the total value of active futures contracts, indicating the amount of leverage and engagement in the futures market. Rising open interest often suggests increased speculation and can foreshadow significant volatility.

Periods of high open interest are often accompanied by substantial price movements in either direction, as traders speculate on the future price of Bitcoin. This characteristic makes open interest a crucial metric for analyzing market trends and predicting future price shifts.