加密货币估值：一个难题，一个市场之谜

加密货币估值仍然是市场上的一个难题，即使是经验丰富的投资者也感到困惑。与传统资产不同，比特币等加密货币的定价违反了传统方法，缺乏基本指标指导。当我们深入研究这个令人困惑的领域时，市场的不可预测性显露出来，让我们思考：我们如何真正评估这些数字资产？

Cryptocurrency Valuation: A Conundrum

加密货币估值：一个难题

My friends, we've come to the penultimate installment of my crypto and Bitcoin deep dive. Today, let's tackle the elephant in the room: valuation.

我的朋友们，我们已经进入了我的加密货币和比特币深入研究的倒数第二部分。今天，让我们解决房间里的大象：估值。

How Do You Value an Enigmatic Asset?

您如何评估神秘资产？

Take a gander at Bitcoin's price chart, and you'll quickly realize that nobody has a definitive answer—except perhaps the market makers pulling the strings. It's clear that there's no rational pricing structure here.

看看比特币的价格图表，你很快就会意识到没有人能给出明确的答案——也许除了幕后操纵的做市商。很明显，这里不存在合理的定价结构。

Unlike traditional stocks, which are valued based on earnings and growth potential, cryptocurrencies have no such fundamental metrics to guide us.

与根据收益和增长潜力进行估值的传统股票不同，加密货币没有这样的基本指标来指导我们。

The Bogus Excuses

虚假的借口

Oh, the myriad reasons people have conjured up to justify crypto's price! Most of them are flawed and, frankly, a bunch of nonsense.

哦，人们想出了无数的理由来证明加密货币的价格合理！其中大多数都是有缺陷的，坦率地说，都是一堆废话。

Remember Sam Bankman-Fried's infamous "box of crypto tokens" scheme? That's how some cryptos are valued—assigning arbitrary worth and selling shares based on it.

还记得 Sam Bankman-Fried 臭名昭著的“加密代币盒”计划吗？这就是某些加密货币的估值方式——分配任意价值并据此出售股票。

The God-Given Valuation

上帝赋予的估值

And then there's the tale of the pastor who peddled $3.2 million worth of crypto to his flock, claiming God had instructed him to do so. He promised investors a tenfold return, but when the venture turned out to be a scam, he exclaimed, "I don't know how God is going to turn this around."

还有一个故事，牧师向他的羊群兜售价值 320 万美元的加密货币，声称是上帝指示他这样做的。他向投资者承诺十倍的回报，但当这家企业被证明是一个骗局时，他感叹道：“我不知道上帝会如何扭转这一切。”

Talk about valuations gone awry!

谈论估值出错！

Crypto's Lack of Anchor

加密货币缺乏锚定

Unlike traditional currencies, cryptocurrencies have no central bank or authority to regulate their value. This absence of a stabilizing force means that crypto's value is solely based on the collective faith of its users.

与传统货币不同，加密货币没有中央银行或权威机构来监管其价值。这种稳定力量的缺乏意味着加密货币的价值完全基于其用户的集体信仰。

The Energy Conundrum

能源难题

Get ready for the next excuse: rising energy costs will drive up the "cost of mining" Bitcoin. So, the cost of producing something that doesn't physically exist has increased, therefore the price must go up?

为下一个借口做好准备：能源成本上涨将推高比特币的“开采成本”。那么，生产物理上不存在的东西的成本增加了，因此价格必须上涨？

Hype and Manipulation

炒作和操纵

Of course, media coverage and celebrity tweets play a significant role in crypto's price fluctuations. Pump-and-dump schemes are rampant in this unregulated space, where insiders hype up a crypto or other asset to artificially inflate its value and then dump their holdings, leaving unsuspecting investors holding the bag.

当然，媒体报道和名人推文在加密货币的价格波动中发挥着重要作用。在这个不受监管的领域，拉高抛售计划十分猖獗，内部人士炒作加密货币或其他资产，人为地抬高其价值，然后抛售其持有的资产，让毫无戒心的投资者承担责任。

The Unknown Inventor

无名的发明家

And let's not forget the enigma of Bitcoin's inventor. Who is this Satoshi Nakamoto? What's the secret behind their anonymity?

我们不要忘记比特币发明者的谜团。这个中本聪是谁？他们匿名的背后隐藏着什么秘密？

The Risks of Crypto

加密货币的风险

The risks of investing in cryptocurrencies are substantial. Exchange bankruptcies, hacks, and government bans could wipe out your holdings in an instant.

投资加密货币的风险很大。交易所破产、黑客攻击和政府禁令可能会立即消灭您的资产。

The Potential Solution: CBDCs

潜在的解决方案：CBDC

The solution to these risks may lie in central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which would provide the stability and regulation that cryptocurrencies currently lack.

这些风险的解决方案可能在于央行数字货币（CBDC），它将提供加密货币目前缺乏的稳定性和监管。

A Cautionary Note

注意事项

My friends, tread carefully when it comes to cryptocurrencies. Their valuation is a complex and uncertain matter, and the risks are significant. Remember, the absence of regulation makes this a Wild West where anything goes.

我的朋友们，在涉及加密货币时要小心谨慎。他们的估值是一个复杂且不确定的事情，风险很大。请记住，缺乏监管使得这里成为了一切皆有可能的狂野西部。