加密貨幣估值：一個難題，一個市場之謎

加密貨幣估值仍然是市場上的一個難題，即使是經驗豐富的投資者也感到困惑。與傳統資產不同，比特幣等加密貨幣的定價違反了傳統方法，缺乏基本指標指引。當我們深入研究這個令人困惑的領域時，市場的不可預測性顯露出來，讓我們思考：我們如何真正評估這些數位資產？

Cryptocurrency Valuation: A Conundrum

加密貨幣估值：一個難題

My friends, we've come to the penultimate installment of my crypto and Bitcoin deep dive. Today, let's tackle the elephant in the room: valuation.

我的朋友們，我們已經進入了我的加密貨幣和比特幣深入研究的倒數第二部分。今天，讓我們解決房間裡的大象：估值。

How Do You Value an Enigmatic Asset?

您如何評估神秘資產？

Take a gander at Bitcoin's price chart, and you'll quickly realize that nobody has a definitive answer—except perhaps the market makers pulling the strings. It's clear that there's no rational pricing structure here.

看看比特幣的價格圖表，你很快就會意識到沒有人能給出明確的答案——也許除了幕後操縱的做市商。很明顯，這裡不存在合理的定價結構。

Unlike traditional stocks, which are valued based on earnings and growth potential, cryptocurrencies have no such fundamental metrics to guide us.

與根據收益和成長潛力進行估值的傳統股票不同，加密貨幣沒有這樣的基本指標來引導我們。

The Bogus Excuses

虛假的藉口

Oh, the myriad reasons people have conjured up to justify crypto's price! Most of them are flawed and, frankly, a bunch of nonsense.

哦，人們想出了無數的理由來證明加密貨幣的價格合理！其中大多數都是有缺陷的，坦白說，都是一堆廢話。

Remember Sam Bankman-Fried's infamous "box of crypto tokens" scheme? That's how some cryptos are valued—assigning arbitrary worth and selling shares based on it.

還記得 Sam Bankman-Fried 臭名昭著的「加密代幣盒」計劃嗎？這就是某些加密貨幣的估值方式——分配任意價值並據此出售股票。

The God-Given Valuation

上帝賦予的估值

And then there's the tale of the pastor who peddled $3.2 million worth of crypto to his flock, claiming God had instructed him to do so. He promised investors a tenfold return, but when the venture turned out to be a scam, he exclaimed, "I don't know how God is going to turn this around."

還有一個故事，牧師向他的羊群兜售價價值 320 萬美元的加密貨幣，聲稱是上帝指示他這樣做的。他向投資者承諾十倍的回報，但當這家企業被證明是一個騙局時，他感嘆道：“我不知道上帝會如何扭轉這一切。”

Talk about valuations gone awry!

談論估值出錯！

Crypto's Lack of Anchor

加密貨幣缺乏錨定

Unlike traditional currencies, cryptocurrencies have no central bank or authority to regulate their value. This absence of a stabilizing force means that crypto's value is solely based on the collective faith of its users.

與傳統貨幣不同，加密貨幣沒有中央銀行或權威機構來監管其價值。這種穩定力量的缺乏意味著加密貨幣的價值完全基於其用戶的集體信念。

The Energy Conundrum

能源難題

Get ready for the next excuse: rising energy costs will drive up the "cost of mining" Bitcoin. So, the cost of producing something that doesn't physically exist has increased, therefore the price must go up?

為下一個藉口做好準備：能源成本上漲將推高比特幣的「開採成本」。那麼，生產物理上不存在的東西的成本增加了，因此價格必須上漲？

Hype and Manipulation

炒作和操縱

Of course, media coverage and celebrity tweets play a significant role in crypto's price fluctuations. Pump-and-dump schemes are rampant in this unregulated space, where insiders hype up a crypto or other asset to artificially inflate its value and then dump their holdings, leaving unsuspecting investors holding the bag.

當然，媒體報導和名人推文在加密貨幣的價格波動中發揮著重要作用。在這個不受監管的領域，拉高拋售計畫十分猖獗，內部人士炒作加密貨幣或其他資產，人為地抬高其價值，然後拋售其持有的資產，讓毫無戒心的投資者承擔責任。

The Unknown Inventor

無名的發明家

And let's not forget the enigma of Bitcoin's inventor. Who is this Satoshi Nakamoto? What's the secret behind their anonymity?

我們不要忘記比特幣發明者的謎團。這個中本聰是誰？他們匿名的背後隱藏著什麼秘密？

The Risks of Crypto

加密貨幣的風險

The risks of investing in cryptocurrencies are substantial. Exchange bankruptcies, hacks, and government bans could wipe out your holdings in an instant.

投資加密貨幣的風險很大。交易所破產、駭客攻擊和政府禁令可能會立即消滅您的資產。

The Potential Solution: CBDCs

潛在的解決方案：CBDC

The solution to these risks may lie in central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which would provide the stability and regulation that cryptocurrencies currently lack.

這些風險的解決方案可能在於央行數位貨幣（CBDC），它將提供加密貨幣目前缺乏的穩定性和監管。

A Cautionary Note

注意事項

My friends, tread carefully when it comes to cryptocurrencies. Their valuation is a complex and uncertain matter, and the risks are significant. Remember, the absence of regulation makes this a Wild West where anything goes.

我的朋友們，在涉及加密貨幣時要小心謹慎。他們的估值是一個複雜且不確定的事情，風險很大。請記住，缺乏監管使得這裡成為了一切皆有可能的狂野西部。