h 200,000 美元。我也相信加密货币市场将持续增长，总市值将超过5万亿美元。此外，我预计美国政府将对加密货币采取更加积极的态度，SEC将批准更多的加密货币ETF。

to reach $200,000. I also predict that we will see a large-scale entry of institutions into the cryptocurrency market, and the total market capitalization will reach $10 trillion.

达到20万美元。我还预测，我们将看到机构大规模进入加密货币市场，总市值将达到10万亿美元。

Tarun:

塔伦：

I predict that the total market capitalization will reach $5 trillion, and there will be a large-scale entry of institutions into the DeFi space. In addition, I expect to see a wave of new public chain innovations.

我预测总市值将达到5万亿美元，将会有机构大规模进入DeFi领域。此外，我预计会看到一波新的公链创新浪潮。

Tom:

汤姆：

I predict that Bitcoin will reach $120,000, and I am more optimistic about Ethereum, which I expect to reach $5,000. I also predict that we will see a large-scale entry of institutions into the cryptocurrency market, and the total market capitalization will reach $7 trillion.output: Four industry experts, Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb Qureshi, Dragonfly General Partner Tom Schmidt, Superstate CEO Robert Leshner, and Robot Ventures Managing Partner Tarun Chitra, shared their perspectives on the key moments of the year in a recent podcast episode of Chopping Block. Below is a summary of their discussion, compiled by PANews.

我预计比特币将达到12万美元，而我更看好以太坊，预计将达到5000美元。我还预测，我们将看到机构大规模进入加密货币市场，总市值将达到7万亿美元。 产出：四位行业专家，Dragonfly管理合伙人Haseeb Qureshi，Dragonfly普通合伙人Tom Schmidt，Superstate首席执行官Robert Leshner 和 Robot Ventures 管理合伙人 Tarun Chitra 在最近的 Chopping Block 播客节目中分享了他们对今年关键时刻的看法。以下是他们的讨论摘要，由 PANews 整理。

Biggest Winner

最大赢家

Haseeb: I think the biggest winner this year is HyperLiquid. This decentralized perpetual contract trading platform conducted the most successful token airdrop of the season, which can be called the 'Uniswap moment' of this cycle. Although there is still a long way to go in terms of true decentralization, its token distribution method and community response are inspiring. As a VC, we really regret not being able to participate in it - in fact, almost all VCs tried to invest in HyperLiquid, but they were all rejected. This kind of 'perfect birth' project is indeed impressive, especially in terms of product capabilities, execution, and technical delivery.

Haseeb：我认为今年最大的赢家是HyperLiquid。这个去中心化永续合约交易平台进行了本季最成功的代币空投，堪称本周期的“Uniswap时刻”。虽然离真正的去中心化还有很长的路要走，但它的代币分配方式和社区反响令人鼓舞。作为VC，我们真的很遗憾没能参与其中——事实上，几乎所有VC都试图投资HyperLiquid，但都被拒绝了。这种“完美诞生”的项目确实令人印象深刻，尤其是在产品能力、执行力和技术交付方面。

Robert: From my perspective, the biggest winners this year are all the US-based crypto founders and companies. We have witnessed an important turning point: from the extreme hostility and resistance we faced before, to the positive momentum we see now. As a US-based crypto founder, this transition is exciting. Finally, I don’t have to worry about doing crypto business in the United States anymore.

罗伯特：在我看来，今年最大的赢家都是美国的加密货币创始人和公司。我们见证了一个重要的转折点：从之前面临的极端敌意和阻力，到现在看到的积极势头。作为美国的加密货币创始人，这种转变令人兴奋。终于不用再担心在美国做加密业务了。

Tarun: I'm going to go with the entire DeFi space. Remember the 36-month bear market predicted by Degen Spartan? DeFi was once seen as the problem child of the cryptocurrency world, and the valuations of the public chains that hadn't yet landed were often ten times that of DeFi projects. But now, DeFi has made a strong comeback. As someone who works hard in the DeFi space, it's really gratifying to see such developments.

Tarun：我会关注整个 DeFi 领域。还记得 Degen Spartan 预测的 36 个月熊市吗？ DeFi一度被视为加密货币世界的问题孩子，尚未落地的公链估值往往是DeFi项目的十倍。但现在，DeFi 强势卷土重来。作为一个在 DeFi 领域努力耕耘的人，看到这样的发展确实令人欣慰。

Tom: My choice might be a little surprising - it's Tether (USDT). They have performed very well this year and are arguably one of the most profitable companies in the world. For years, many people have been waiting for Tether to fall or have major problems, but the opposite has happened. It has become more and more successful and more regulated. Tether has not only continued to grow, but has also become an important case in the cryptocurrency industry, especially in terms of stablecoin applications and the global trend of dollarization.

Tom：我的选择可能有点令人惊讶 - 它是 Tether (USDT)。他们今年表现非常好，可以说是世界上最赚钱的公司之一。多年来，许多人一直在等待 Tether 下跌或出现重大问题，但事实恰恰相反。它变得越来越成功，也越来越规范。 Tether不仅持续增长，而且还成为加密货币行业的重要案例，特别是在稳定币应用和全球美元化趋势方面。

Biggest Loser

最大输家

Robert: There is no doubt that the anti-crypto camp is the biggest loser this year, including some members of both houses of Congress and some people in the executive branch, especially some members of the SEC and those who promote "Operation Disconnect 2.0". They mistakenly believe that suppressing the cryptocurrency industry can advance their political careers, but it has proven to be a completely failed strategy. I hope this can change the political landscape in the future and make political suppression of cryptocurrencies no longer a viable political means.

罗伯特：毫无疑问，反加密阵营是今年最大的输家，包括国会参众两院的一些议员和行政部门的一些人士，特别是SEC的一些议员和推动“Operation Disconnect 2.0”的人士。他们错误地认为打压加密货币行业可以推进他们的政治生涯，但事实证明这是一个完全失败的策略。我希望这能够改变未来的政治格局，让对加密货币的政治打压不再是可行的政治手段。

Tarun: I would say the biggest losers this year are the many second-tier Layer 2 projects and application chains. At the beginning of 2023, the market generally believed that there would be thousands of L2 projects, and each L2 technology stack would spawn a large number of application chains for specific purposes. But reality has proved that this assumption is completely wrong. Just look at the continued turmoil in the Cosmos ecosystem. People used to think that successful applications like Blur could launch their own application chains or L2s, such as Blast, but the actual effect was not ideal. Instead, we see that users tend to focus on a few top L2 projects.

Tarun：我想说今年最大的输家是很多二线的 Layer 2 项目和应用链。 2023年初，市场普遍认为将会有数千个L2项目，每个L2技术栈都会催生大量特定用途的应用链。但现实证明，这种假设是完全错误的。看看 Cosmos 生态系统的持续动荡就知道了。以前人们以为像Blur这样成功的应用可以推出自己的应用链或者L2，比如Blast，但实际效果并不理想。相反，我们看到用户倾向于关注一些顶级的 L2 项目。

Haseeb: I think financial nihilism is the biggest loser this year. In the first half of this year, the view that everything in cryptocurrency is a meme coin and all technology is meaningless was once prevalent. But the reality is that the proportion of meme coin trading volume in total trading volume has dropped sharply from 20-30% in the early days to 10% or even lower now. The market has shown more enthusiasm and confidence in real technological innovation and substantive progress. If you think all technology is worthless, then you are indeed a big loser this year.

Haseeb：我认为金融虚无主义是今年最大的输家。今年上半年，加密货币中的一切都是模因币、所有技术都毫无意义的观点一度盛行。但现实是，meme币交易量占总交易量的比例已经从早期的20-30%大幅下降到现在的10%甚至更低。市场对真正的技术创新和实质性进展表现出了更多的热情和信心。如果你认为所有技术都毫无价值，那么你今年确实是一个大失败者。

Tom:

汤姆：