h 200,000 美元。我也相信加密貨幣市場將持續成長，總市值將超過5兆美元。此外，我預計美國政府將對加密貨幣採取更積極的態度，SEC將批准更多的加密貨幣ETF。

to reach $200,000. I also predict that we will see a large-scale entry of institutions into the cryptocurrency market, and the total market capitalization will reach $10 trillion.

達到20萬美元。我還預測，我們將看到機構大規模進入加密貨幣市場，總市值將達到10兆美元。

Tarun:

塔倫：

I predict that the total market capitalization will reach $5 trillion, and there will be a large-scale entry of institutions into the DeFi space. In addition, I expect to see a wave of new public chain innovations.

我預測總市值將達到5兆美元，將會有機構大規模進入DeFi領域。此外，我預計會看到一波新的公鏈創新浪潮。

Tom:

湯姆：

I predict that Bitcoin will reach $120,000, and I am more optimistic about Ethereum, which I expect to reach $5,000. I also predict that we will see a large-scale entry of institutions into the cryptocurrency market, and the total market capitalization will reach $7 trillion.output: Four industry experts, Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb Qureshi, Dragonfly General Partner Tom Schmidt, Superstate CEO Robert Leshner, and Robot Ventures Managing Partner Tarun Chitra, shared their perspectives on the key moments of the year in a recent podcast episode of Chopping Block. Below is a summary of their discussion, compiled by PANews.

我預測比特幣會達到12萬美元，我更看好以太坊，預計會達到5,000美元。我還預測，我們將看到機構大規模進入加密貨幣市場，總市值將達到7兆美元。 產出：四位行業專家，Dragonfly管理合夥人Haseeb Qureshi，Dragonfly普通合夥人Tom Schmidt，Superstate首席執行官方Robert Leshner 和 Robot Ventures 管理合夥人 Tarun Chitra 在最近的 Chopping Block 播客節目中分享了他們對今年關鍵時刻的看法。以下是他們的討論摘要，由 PANews 整理。

Biggest Winner

最大贏家

Haseeb: I think the biggest winner this year is HyperLiquid. This decentralized perpetual contract trading platform conducted the most successful token airdrop of the season, which can be called the 'Uniswap moment' of this cycle. Although there is still a long way to go in terms of true decentralization, its token distribution method and community response are inspiring. As a VC, we really regret not being able to participate in it - in fact, almost all VCs tried to invest in HyperLiquid, but they were all rejected. This kind of 'perfect birth' project is indeed impressive, especially in terms of product capabilities, execution, and technical delivery.

Haseeb：我認為今年最大的贏家是HyperLiquid。這個去中心化永續合約交易平台進行了本季最成功的代幣空投，堪稱本週期的「Uniswap時刻」。雖然離真正的去中心化還有很長的路要走，但它的代幣分配方式和社群反應令人鼓舞。身為VC，我們真的很遺憾沒能參與其中——事實上，幾乎所有VC都試圖投資HyperLiquid，但都被拒絕了。這種「完美誕生」的專案確實令人印象深刻，尤其是在產品能力、執行力和技術交付方面。

Robert: From my perspective, the biggest winners this year are all the US-based crypto founders and companies. We have witnessed an important turning point: from the extreme hostility and resistance we faced before, to the positive momentum we see now. As a US-based crypto founder, this transition is exciting. Finally, I don’t have to worry about doing crypto business in the United States anymore.

羅伯特：在我看來，今年最大的贏家都是美國的加密貨幣創辦人和公司。我們見證了一個重要的轉折點：從之前面臨的極端敵意和阻力，到現在看到的正面動力。身為美國的加密貨幣創始人，這種轉變令人興奮。終於不用再擔心在美國做加密業務了。

Tarun: I'm going to go with the entire DeFi space. Remember the 36-month bear market predicted by Degen Spartan? DeFi was once seen as the problem child of the cryptocurrency world, and the valuations of the public chains that hadn't yet landed were often ten times that of DeFi projects. But now, DeFi has made a strong comeback. As someone who works hard in the DeFi space, it's really gratifying to see such developments.

Tarun：我會關注整個 DeFi 領域。還記得 Degen Spartan 預測的 36 個月熊市嗎？ DeFi一度被視為加密貨幣世界的問題孩子，尚未落地的公鏈估值往往是DeFi計畫的十倍。但現在，DeFi 強勢捲土重來。作為一個在 DeFi 領域努力耕耘的人，看到這樣的發展確實令人欣慰。

Tom: My choice might be a little surprising - it's Tether (USDT). They have performed very well this year and are arguably one of the most profitable companies in the world. For years, many people have been waiting for Tether to fall or have major problems, but the opposite has happened. It has become more and more successful and more regulated. Tether has not only continued to grow, but has also become an important case in the cryptocurrency industry, especially in terms of stablecoin applications and the global trend of dollarization.

Tom：我的選擇可能有點令人驚訝 - 它是 Tether (USDT)。他們今年表現得非常好，可以說是世界上最賺錢的公司之一。多年來，許多人一直在等待 Tether 下跌或出現重大問題，但事實恰恰相反。它變得越來越成功，也越來越規範。 Tether不僅持續成長，而且還成為加密貨幣產業的重要案例，特別是在穩定幣應用和全球美元化趨勢方面。

Biggest Loser

最大輸家

Robert: There is no doubt that the anti-crypto camp is the biggest loser this year, including some members of both houses of Congress and some people in the executive branch, especially some members of the SEC and those who promote "Operation Disconnect 2.0". They mistakenly believe that suppressing the cryptocurrency industry can advance their political careers, but it has proven to be a completely failed strategy. I hope this can change the political landscape in the future and make political suppression of cryptocurrencies no longer a viable political means.

羅伯特：毫無疑問，反加密陣營是今年最大的輸家，包括國會參眾兩院的一些議員和行政部門的一些人士，特別是SEC的一些議員和推動“Operation Disconnect 2.0”的人士。他們錯誤地認為打壓加密貨幣產業可以推進他們的政治生涯，但事實證明這是一個完全失敗的策略。我希望這能改變未來的政治格局，讓加密貨幣的政治壓制不再是可行的政治手段。

Tarun: I would say the biggest losers this year are the many second-tier Layer 2 projects and application chains. At the beginning of 2023, the market generally believed that there would be thousands of L2 projects, and each L2 technology stack would spawn a large number of application chains for specific purposes. But reality has proved that this assumption is completely wrong. Just look at the continued turmoil in the Cosmos ecosystem. People used to think that successful applications like Blur could launch their own application chains or L2s, such as Blast, but the actual effect was not ideal. Instead, we see that users tend to focus on a few top L2 projects.

Tarun：我想說今年最大的輸家是許多二線的 Layer 2 專案和應用程式鏈。 2023年初，市場普遍認為將會有數千個L2項目，每個L2技術堆疊都會催生大量特定用途的應用鏈。但現實證明，這種假設是完全錯誤的。看看 Cosmos 生態系統的持續動盪就知道了。以前人們以為像Blur這樣成功的應用可以推出自己的應用鏈或L2，例如Blast，但實際效果並不理想。相反，我們看到用戶傾向於關註一些頂級的 L2 項目。

Haseeb: I think financial nihilism is the biggest loser this year. In the first half of this year, the view that everything in cryptocurrency is a meme coin and all technology is meaningless was once prevalent. But the reality is that the proportion of meme coin trading volume in total trading volume has dropped sharply from 20-30% in the early days to 10% or even lower now. The market has shown more enthusiasm and confidence in real technological innovation and substantive progress. If you think all technology is worthless, then you are indeed a big loser this year.

Haseeb：我認為金融虛無主義是今年最大的輸家。今年上半年，加密貨幣中的一切都是迷因幣、所有技術都毫無意義的觀點一度盛行。但現實是，meme幣交易量佔總交易量的比例已從早期的20-30%大幅下降到現在的10%甚至更低。市場對真正的技術創新和實質進展表現出了更多的熱情和信心。如果你認為所有技術都毫無價值，那麼你今年確實是個大失敗者。

Tom:

湯姆：