2024 年加密货币市场会迎来圣诞老人集会吗？

“圣诞老人”反弹是指加密货币在一年的最后五个交易日和次年的前两个交易日的价格上涨。

As Christmas approaches, crypto traders are keeping an eye on whether the market will experience a "Santa Claus" rally this year. According to a CoinGecko report, eight out of ten times between 2014 and 2023, crypto markets rallied around the Christmas holidays. However, Bitcoin's recent price decline and decreasing institutional investment inflows have dampened hopes for a Santa rally this year.

随着圣诞节的临近，加密货币交易者正在密切关注今年市场是否会经历“圣诞老人”反弹。根据 CoinGecko 的报告，2014 年至 2023 年间，加密货币市场有十分之八的时间在圣诞节假期期间上涨。然而，比特币最近的价格下跌和机构投资流入的减少削弱了今年圣诞老人反弹的希望。

A "Santa Claus" rally refers to price gains in crypto in the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the following year, as defined by a CoinGecko report. Therefore, the performance of the crypto market is key during the one-week timeframe from December 27, 2024, to January 2, 2025.

根据 CoinGecko 报告的定义，“圣诞老人”反弹是指加密货币在一年的最后五个交易日和次年的前两个交易日的价格上涨。因此，从2024年12月27日到2025年1月2日的一周时间内，加密货币市场的表现至关重要。

Bitcoin's decline from its all-time high has worried BTC traders, and hopes of a Santa Claus rally have dimmed this cycle. Between 2014 and 2023, crypto markets rallied post-Christmas.

比特币从历史高位的下跌让比特币交易者感到担忧，而圣诞老人反弹的希望也让这个周期变得黯淡。 2014 年至 2023 年间，加密货币市场在圣诞节后出现反弹。

Crypto markets experienced a pullback instead of a rally, three times out of ten in the past decade with a correction as steep as 12.12% pre-Christmas, during the ICO bubble of 2017.

加密货币市场在过去十年中十有八九经历了回调而不是上涨，在 2017 年 ICO 泡沫期间，圣诞节前的回调幅度高达 12.12%。

As BTC hovers around $97,000 on Tuesday, December 24, a pre-Christmas rally seems unlikely. BTC could gain post-Christmas if there is a revival in institutional interest in the largest cryptocurrency.

由于 BTC 于 12 月 24 日星期二徘徊在 97,000 美元左右，圣诞节前的反弹似乎不太可能。如果机构对最大的加密货币的兴趣复苏，比特币可能会在圣诞节后上涨。

Crypto's total market capitalization, excluding Bitcoin, began its recovery this week. The daily chart shows bullish signs that support a thesis of gains in the market cap of altcoins, making it likely that alts observe a rally post-Christmas or within the first two trading days of 2025.

不包括比特币的加密货币总市值本周开始复苏。日线图显示看涨迹象，支持山寨币市值上涨的论点，使得山寨币有可能在圣诞节后或 2025 年的前两个交易日内出现反弹。

Bitcoin quarterly returns data from Coinglass shows over 50% gains in Q4 both in 2024 and 2023, as of December 24. It’s important to note that the bull runs in 2020, 2017, and 2013 ended with nearly 480%, 215%, and 168% gains in BTC in Q4.

Coinglass 的比特币季度回报数据显示，截至 12 月 24 日，2024 年和 2023 年第四季度的涨幅均超过 50%。值得注意的是，2020 年、2017 年和 2013 年的牛市以近 480%、215% 和 168% 结束第四季度 BTC 涨幅百分比。

Bitcoin's performance this quarter has been lackluster, and there is little evidence to support extended gains in the first two trading days of 2025. Institutional interest in BTC is slowing down, reducing capital inflows, and this is evident from net outflows of Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

比特币本季度表现乏善可陈，几乎没有证据支持2025年前两个交易日继续上涨。机构对BTC的兴趣正在放缓，资本流入减少，这一点从比特币现货ETF的净流出就可以看出。

With Bitcoin's Q4 performance under the median of 54.80%, it is less likely that the token will retest its all-time high before the end of the year.

由于比特币第四季度的表现低于 54.80% 的中位数，该代币在年底前重新测试其历史高点的可能性较小。

The altcoin season index on Blockchaincenter.net helps evaluate the performance of the top 50 altcoins over a period of 90 days.

Blockchaincenter.net 上的山寨币季节指数有助于评估前 50 名山寨币在 90 天内的表现。

The index reads 49 on a scale of 0 to 100, meaning the price performance of the top 50 altcoins is lagging behind when compared to Bitcoin’s yield for holders in the same time period.

该指数在 0 到 100 的范围内为 49，这意味着与同期比特币持有者的收益率相比，前 50 名山寨币的价格表现落后。

While 49 means it is not the altcoin season yet, it shows nearly 50% of the altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin in the past 90 days.

虽然 49 意味着现在还不是山寨币季节，但它表明近 50% 的山寨币在过去 90 天内的表现优于比特币。

Bitcoin prices continue to decline, even as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has appointed a third pro-crypto candidate. Trump nominated Stephen Miran to be Chair of his Council of Economic Advisers. Miran is a known crypto advocate and another pro-crypto appointment made by the incoming President.

尽管美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普任命了第三位支持加密货币的候选人，但比特币价格仍在继续下跌。特朗普提名斯蒂芬·米兰担任经济顾问委员会主席。米兰是一位著名的加密货币倡导者，也是即将上任的总统任命的另一位支持加密货币的人。

Previously, Trump appointed pro-crypto candidate Paul Atkins to head the Securities and Exchange Commission and tech investor David Sacks as artificial intelligence and crypto czar. While these appointments are expected to steer crypto towards positive regulation in the U.S., Bitcoin price continues to slide.

此前，特朗普任命支持加密货币的候选人保罗·阿特金斯(Paul Atkins)担任美国证券交易委员会主席，并任命科技投资者大卫·萨克斯(David Sacks)担任人工智能和加密货币沙皇。尽管这些任命预计将引导加密货币在美国受到积极监管，但比特币价格仍在继续下滑。

Data from Statista shows that South Korea is estimated to be the third largest cryptocurrency market in the world and exchanges in Korea account for over 9% of the global trade volume as of 2021. The Korean Won ranks among the top 5 traded currencies against Bitcoin, per the data.

Statista 的数据显示，韩国估计是全球第三大加密货币市场，截至 2021 年，韩国交易所的交易量占全球交易量的 9% 以上。韩元跻身比特币交易额前 5 名货币之列，根据数据。

South Korea delayed its crypto taxation until 2027 and adopted a pro-crypto approach, paving way for positive developments in Asia and for Bitcoin traders in Korea.

韩国将加密货币税收推迟到 2027 年，并采取了支持加密货币的做法，为亚洲和韩国比特币交易者的积极发展铺平了道路。

Michael Saylor-led MicroStrategy's blueprint to hold Bitcoin on its balance sheet has inspired a wave of adoption across Asia. Per an Asia Express report, Chinese selfie app developer Meitu invested in 31,000 ETH and 940 BTC in the spring of 2021. Japanese firm Metaplanet is accumulating BTC through the dips and now holds 1,142 BTC, as of December 19.

Michael Saylor 领导的 MicroStrategy 将比特币纳入其资产负债表的蓝图激发了亚洲各地的采用浪潮。据《亚洲快报》报道，中国自拍应用开发商美图在 2021 年春季投资了 31,000 ETH 和 940 BTC。日本公司 Metaplanet 正在逢低吸纳 BTC，截至 12 月 19 日，目前持有 1,142 BTC。

With large corporations adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet, Asia is in focus this cycle in driving BTC adoption and its institutionalization.

随着大公司将比特币添加到其资产负债表中，亚洲在本周期中成为推动比特币采用及其制度化的焦点。

Bitcoin derivatives traders are bullish on BTC gains

比特币衍生品交易员看好比特币收益