2024 年加密貨幣市集會迎來聖誕老人集會嗎？

「聖誕老人」反彈是指加密貨幣在一年的最後五個交易日和隔年的前兩個交易日的價格上漲。

As Christmas approaches, crypto traders are keeping an eye on whether the market will experience a "Santa Claus" rally this year. According to a CoinGecko report, eight out of ten times between 2014 and 2023, crypto markets rallied around the Christmas holidays. However, Bitcoin's recent price decline and decreasing institutional investment inflows have dampened hopes for a Santa rally this year.

隨著聖誕節的臨近，加密貨幣交易者正在密切關註今年市場是否會經歷「聖誕老人」反彈。根據 CoinGecko 的報告，2014 年至 2023 年間，加密貨幣市場有十分之八的時間在聖誕節假期期間上漲。然而，比特幣最近的價格下跌和機構投資流入的減少削弱了今年聖誕老人反彈的希望。

A "Santa Claus" rally refers to price gains in crypto in the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the following year, as defined by a CoinGecko report. Therefore, the performance of the crypto market is key during the one-week timeframe from December 27, 2024, to January 2, 2025.

根據 CoinGecko 報告的定義，「聖誕老人」反彈是指加密貨幣在一年的最後五個交易日和隔年的前兩個交易日的價格上漲。因此，從2024年12月27日到2025年1月2日的一週時間內，加密貨幣市場的表現至關重要。

Bitcoin's decline from its all-time high has worried BTC traders, and hopes of a Santa Claus rally have dimmed this cycle. Between 2014 and 2023, crypto markets rallied post-Christmas.

比特幣從歷史高點的下跌讓比特幣交易者感到擔憂，而聖誕老人反彈的希望也讓這個週期變得黯淡。 2014 年至 2023 年間，加密貨幣市場在聖誕節後出現反彈。

Crypto markets experienced a pullback instead of a rally, three times out of ten in the past decade with a correction as steep as 12.12% pre-Christmas, during the ICO bubble of 2017.

加密貨幣市場在過去十年中十有八九經歷了回調而不是上漲，在 2017 年 ICO 泡沫期間，聖誕節前的回檔幅度高達 12.12%。

As BTC hovers around $97,000 on Tuesday, December 24, a pre-Christmas rally seems unlikely. BTC could gain post-Christmas if there is a revival in institutional interest in the largest cryptocurrency.

由於 BTC 於 12 月 24 日星期二徘徊在 97,000 美元左右，聖誕節前的反彈似乎不太可能。如果機構對最大的加密貨幣的興趣復甦，比特幣可能會在聖誕節後上漲。

Crypto's total market capitalization, excluding Bitcoin, began its recovery this week. The daily chart shows bullish signs that support a thesis of gains in the market cap of altcoins, making it likely that alts observe a rally post-Christmas or within the first two trading days of 2025.

不包括比特幣的加密貨幣總市值本週開始復甦。日線圖顯示看漲跡象，支持山寨幣市值上漲的論點，使得山寨幣有可能在聖誕節後或 2025 年的前兩個交易日內出現反彈。

Bitcoin quarterly returns data from Coinglass shows over 50% gains in Q4 both in 2024 and 2023, as of December 24. It’s important to note that the bull runs in 2020, 2017, and 2013 ended with nearly 480%, 215%, and 168% gains in BTC in Q4.

Coinglass 的比特幣季度回報數據顯示，截至12 月24 日，2024 年和2023 年第四季的漲幅均超過50%。 % 和168% 結束第四季 BTC 漲幅百分比。

Bitcoin's performance this quarter has been lackluster, and there is little evidence to support extended gains in the first two trading days of 2025. Institutional interest in BTC is slowing down, reducing capital inflows, and this is evident from net outflows of Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

比特幣本季表現乏善可陳，幾乎沒有證據支持2025年前兩個交易日繼續上漲。

With Bitcoin's Q4 performance under the median of 54.80%, it is less likely that the token will retest its all-time high before the end of the year.

由於比特幣第四季的表現低於 54.80% 的中位數，該代幣在年底前重新測試其歷史高點的可能性較小。

The altcoin season index on Blockchaincenter.net helps evaluate the performance of the top 50 altcoins over a period of 90 days.

Blockchaincenter.net 上的山寨幣季節指數有助於評估前 50 名山寨幣在 90 天內的表現。

The index reads 49 on a scale of 0 to 100, meaning the price performance of the top 50 altcoins is lagging behind when compared to Bitcoin’s yield for holders in the same time period.

該指數在 0 到 100 的範圍內為 49，這意味著與同期比特幣持有者的收益率相比，前 50 名山寨幣的價格表現落後。

While 49 means it is not the altcoin season yet, it shows nearly 50% of the altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin in the past 90 days.

雖然 49 意味著現在還不是山寨幣季節，但它表明近 50% 的山寨幣在過去 90 天內的表現優於比特幣。

Bitcoin prices continue to decline, even as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has appointed a third pro-crypto candidate. Trump nominated Stephen Miran to be Chair of his Council of Economic Advisers. Miran is a known crypto advocate and another pro-crypto appointment made by the incoming President.

儘管美國當選總統唐納德·川普任命了第三位支持加密貨幣的候選人，但比特幣價格仍在繼續下跌。川普提名史蒂芬·米蘭擔任經濟顧問委員會主席。米蘭是一位著名的加密貨幣倡導者，也是即將上任的總統任命的另一位支持加密貨幣的人。

Previously, Trump appointed pro-crypto candidate Paul Atkins to head the Securities and Exchange Commission and tech investor David Sacks as artificial intelligence and crypto czar. While these appointments are expected to steer crypto towards positive regulation in the U.S., Bitcoin price continues to slide.

此前，川普任命支持加密貨幣的候選人保羅·阿特金斯(Paul Atkins)擔任美國證券交易委員會主席，並任命科技投資者大衛·薩克斯(David Sacks)擔任人工智慧和加密貨幣沙皇。儘管這些任命預計將引導加密貨幣在美國受到積極監管，但比特幣價格仍在繼續下滑。

Data from Statista shows that South Korea is estimated to be the third largest cryptocurrency market in the world and exchanges in Korea account for over 9% of the global trade volume as of 2021. The Korean Won ranks among the top 5 traded currencies against Bitcoin, per the data.

Statista 的數據顯示，韓國估計是全球第三大加密貨幣市場，截至 2021 年，韓國交易所的交易量佔全球交易量的 9% 以上。 。

South Korea delayed its crypto taxation until 2027 and adopted a pro-crypto approach, paving way for positive developments in Asia and for Bitcoin traders in Korea.

韓國將加密貨幣稅收推遲到 2027 年，並採取了支持加密貨幣的做法，為亞洲和韓國比特幣交易者的積極發展鋪平了道路。

Michael Saylor-led MicroStrategy's blueprint to hold Bitcoin on its balance sheet has inspired a wave of adoption across Asia. Per an Asia Express report, Chinese selfie app developer Meitu invested in 31,000 ETH and 940 BTC in the spring of 2021. Japanese firm Metaplanet is accumulating BTC through the dips and now holds 1,142 BTC, as of December 19.

Michael Saylor 領導的 MicroStrategy 將比特幣納入其資產負債表的藍圖激發了亞洲各地的採用浪潮。根據《亞洲快報》報道，中國自拍應用程式開發商美圖在 2021 年春季投資了 31,000 ETH 和 940 BTC。

With large corporations adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet, Asia is in focus this cycle in driving BTC adoption and its institutionalization.

隨著大公司將比特幣添加到其資產負債表中，亞洲在本週期中成為推動比特幣採用及其製度化的焦點。

Bitcoin derivatives traders are bullish on BTC gains

比特幣衍生性商品交易員看好比特幣收益