加密货币市场步履蹒跚：Layer-1 山寨币分析

由于美国和亚洲市场形势不利，加密货币市场正在经历抛售，比特币跌破 63,000 美元，主要的第一层山寨币突破了关键支撑位。调整阶段为买家提供了折扣入场的机会，但山寨币能否恢复还有待观察。

Cryptocurrency Market Falters Amidst Global Market Turmoil: A Detailed Analysis of Layer-1 Altcoins

全球市场动荡中加密货币市场步履蹒跚：第一层山寨币的详细分析

Amidst widespread uncertainty gripping the global financial landscape, the cryptocurrency market has found itself on shaky ground, with Bitcoin (BTC), the industry's bellwether, plummeting below the $63,000 mark. This bearish sentiment has cascaded across the altcoin landscape, with layer-1 altcoins, the foundational building blocks of the blockchain ecosystem, bearing the brunt of the sell-off. This article delves into the intricacies of the current market dynamics and provides an in-depth analysis of several prominent layer-1 altcoins, examining their price trajectories, technical indicators, and potential recovery scenarios.

在全球金融格局普遍存在不确定性的情况下，加密货币市场已经岌岌可危，行业领头羊比特币 (BTC) 暴跌至 63,000 美元大关以下。这种看跌情绪已经蔓延到整个山寨币领域，作为区块链生态系统的基础构建模块的第一层山寨币首当其冲受到抛售。本文深入研究了当前市场动态的复杂性，并对几种著名的第一层山寨币进行了深入分析，研究了它们的价格轨迹、技术指标和潜在的复苏情景。

Ethereum: A Bearish Dive Amidst a Sea of Red

以太坊：红海中的看跌跳水

As Bitcoin's price crumbled, Ethereum (ETH), the largest layer-1 altcoin, endured a sharp bearish plunge. The sell-off wave crashed through the psychologically significant $3,000 mark, signaling the possibility of further downward pressure. Ethereum's price action has breached the crucial 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), indicating a bearish trend. This technical indicator suggests a potential drop towards the ascending support trendline, which could lead to a decline below $3,000 and a retest of the $2,800 level.

随着比特币价格暴跌，最大的第一层山寨币以太坊（ETH）经历了急剧的下跌。抛售浪潮冲破了 3,000 美元的重要心理关口，预示着进一步下行压力的可能性。以太坊的价格走势已经突破了关键的 50 天指数移动平均线（EMA），表明看跌趋势。该技术指标表明可能会跌向上升支撑趋势线，这可能导致跌破 3,000 美元并重新测试 2,800 美元水平。

However, a glimmer of hope remains in the form of the support trendline. Historically, this level has acted as a barrier against excessive price declines, increasing the likelihood of a reversal. Therefore, a bounce back could propel Ethereum's price back to the $4,000 mark in the post-halving period.

然而，支撑趋势线仍然存在一线希望。从历史上看，这一水平一直是防止价格过度下跌的障碍，增加了逆转的可能性。因此，反弹可能会推动以太坊价格在减半后重返 4,000 美元大关。

Binance Coin: Relative Resilience Amidst Market Mayhem

币安币：市场混乱中的相对弹性

Compared to its peers, Binance Coin (BNB) has exhibited relative resilience amidst the market downturn. The massive correction has shaved approximately 6% off BNB's value in the past two weeks, but it has managed to maintain a sideways trend. The 4-hour chart reveals a dip below the 50 and 200 EMA and a breach of a support trendline. Nevertheless, BNB has held above the psychologically important $500 level, hinting at a potential double-bottom reversal around $540.

与同行相比，币安币（BNB）在市场低迷时期表现出相对的韧性。过去两周，大规模调整已使 BNB 的价值下跌约 6%，但仍保持横盘趋势。 4 小时图显示跌破 50 和 200 EMA 并突破支撑趋势线。尽管如此，BNB 仍保持在 500 美元的重要心理关口上方，暗示可能在 540 美元左右出现双底反转。

Optimistically, a reversal could drive BNB's price towards the $650 mark. The altcoin's strong fundamentals and the upcoming halving event provide a foundation for a potential upswing.

乐观的是，逆转可能会将 BNB 的价格推向 650 美元大关。山寨币强劲的基本面和即将到来的减半事件为潜在的上涨奠定了基础。

Solana: A Pullback of Epic Proportions

Solana：史诗般的回调

As one of the top-performing layer-1 altcoins in early 2024, Solana (SOL) has experienced a significant pullback. The price has fallen below the $150 mark and is inching towards $100. According to the Fibonacci retracement, the breakdown below the 50-day EMA has tested the 50% Fib level at $135. A further decline below this level could put the $100 mark and the 200-day EMA in jeopardy.

作为 2024 年初表现最好的 Layer-1 山寨币之一，Solana (SOL) 经历了大幅回调。价格已跌破 150 美元大关，正在向 100 美元逼近。根据斐波那契回撤，跌破 50 日均线已测试 135 美元的 50% 斐波那契水平。进一步跌破该水平可能会危及 100 美元大关和 200 日均线。

However, the psychological level of $100 is a confluence of multiple bullish catalysts, which could ignite a reversal. A bounce back at this level would present an exceptional dip-buying opportunity for sidelined traders. Furthermore, the highly anticipated post-halving rally could propel SOL's price higher, potentially reaching $250 within a few weeks.

然而，100 美元的心理水平是多种看涨催化剂的汇合，可能会引发逆转。此水平的反弹将为观望交易者提供绝佳的逢低买入机会。此外，备受期待的减半后反弹可能会推动 SOL 的价格走高，可能在几周内达到 250 美元。

Avalanche: A Pivotal Moment on the Horizon

雪崩：地平线上的关键时刻

Before the market crash, the Avalanche (AVAX) network experienced impressive growth, with its price surging to $60. However, the downturn triggered a bearish momentum, resulting in a drop below $50. This decline has formed a falling channel pattern on the daily chart, with the price currently testing the 200-day EMA.

在市场崩盘之前，Avalanche (AVAX) 网络经历了令人印象深刻的增长，其价格飙升至 60 美元。然而，经济低迷引发了看跌势头，导致价格跌破 50 美元。此次下跌在日线图上形成了下跌通道模式，目前价格正在测试 200 日均线。

Despite the crash, AVAX stands at a pivotal stage where a bounce back could be imminent. The strong support at $29 and the 200-day EMA provide a platform for a potential bull cycle. Breaking the $50 resistance level could lead to a surge towards $75.

尽管遭遇了暴跌，但 AVAX 仍处于关键阶段，反弹可能迫在眉睫。 29 美元的强劲支撑和 200 日均线为潜在的牛市周期提供了平台。突破 50 美元阻力位可能会导致价格飙升至 75 美元。

Cardano: A Dip Below the Rubicon

卡尔达诺：跌破卢比孔河

Cardano (ADA) came agonizingly close to the psychological mark of $1 before encountering a swift dip that heralded a bearish cycle. Similar to other layer-1 altcoins, the broader market correction intensified ADA's pullback, resulting in a drop below $0.50. The immense overhead supply has breached the crucial 50 and 200 EMA and the long-established support trendline.

卡尔达诺 (ADA) 一度非常接近 1 美元的心理关口，随后迅速下跌，预示着看跌周期的到来。与其他 Layer-1 山寨币类似，更广泛的市场调整加剧了 ADA 的回调，导致其跌破 0.50 美元。巨大的间接供应已经突破了关键的 50 和 200 EMA 以及长期建立的支撑趋势线。

As ADA trades below $0.50, buyers are attempting to find support at the $0.46 demand zone. A successful reversal would reclaim the $0.50 level and potentially test the $0.67 mark.

由于 ADA 交易价格低于 0.50 美元，买家试图在 0.46 美元的需求区域寻找支撑。如果成功反转，将重新回到 0.50 美元的水平，并可能测试 0.67 美元的关口。

Conclusion: A Symphony of Potential Reversal Opportunities

结论：潜在逆转机会的交响曲

As the overall market undergoes a correction, some layer-1 altcoins present immediate reversal opportunities, while others are yet to reach their next crucial demand level to establish a solid foundation for recovery. Nonetheless, theongoing market volatility has created a wave of correction, offering a window of opportunity for investors to accumulate assets at a discount.

随着整体市场经历调整，一些第一层山寨币呈现出立即逆转的机会，而另一些则尚未达到下一个关键需求水平，无法为复苏奠定坚实的基础。尽管如此，持续的市场波动引发了一波调整，为投资者提供了折扣积累资产的机会。

While the current market landscape may appear uncertain, the underlying fundamentals of these layer-1 altcoins remain strong. The upcoming halving events for Ethereum and Binance Coin could act as a catalyst for a bullish resurgence. Additionally, the ongoing development and adoption of these blockchain platforms provide a long-term perspective of growth potential.

尽管当前的市场格局可能显得不确定，但这些第一层山寨币的基本面仍然强劲。即将到来的以太坊和币安币减半事件可能会成为看涨复苏的催化剂。此外，这些区块链平台的持续开发和采用提供了增长潜力的长期前景。

Therefore, investors should approach this market correction with a discerning eye, carefully evaluating the individual characteristics and technical indicators of each altcoin to identify the most promising opportunities for capital appreciation.

因此，投资者应该以敏锐的眼光对待这次市场调整，仔细评估每种山寨币的个体特征和技术指标，以确定最有希望的资本增值机会。