Coinbase 预测减半后的加密市场将受到宏观经济因素的影响

Coinbase预测，比特币减半后，宏观经济因素将影响加密货币市场。地缘政治紧张局势、利率和通胀等外部因素将影响市场情绪。虽然比特币历来在减半事件后表现良好，但 Coinbase 强调了更广泛的经济状况的影响。该报告还指出，比特币作为地缘政治风险对冲工具的地位日益增强，凸显了投资者观念的不断变化。

Coinbase Predicts Macroeconomic Factors to Shape Crypto Markets Post-Halving

Coinbase 预测宏观经济因素将影响减半后的加密货币市场

Coinbase Global Inc., a prominent cryptocurrency exchange, asserts that macroeconomic factors will play a significant role in determining the price trajectory of digital asset markets following the recent Bitcoin halving. This view deviates from previous post-halving trends, where industry-driven factors have typically guaranteed a bullish run.

著名的加密货币交易所 Coinbase Global Inc. 断言，近期比特币减半后，宏观经济因素将在决定数字资产市场的价格轨迹方面发挥重要作用。这种观点与之前的减半后趋势不同，在之前的趋势中，行业驱动因素通常保证了牛市。

Macroeconomic Influences on Crypto Markets

宏观经济对加密货币市场的影响

According to Coinbase's research report, analyst David Han emphasizes the influence of external factors on crypto markets, even amidst robust crypto fundamentals. These external drivers include:

根据 Coinbase 的研究报告，分析师 David Han 强调了外部因素对加密市场的影响，即使在加密货币基本面强劲的情况下也是如此。这些外部驱动因素包括：

• Heightened geopolitical tensions
• Prolonged periods of elevated interest rates
• Reflationary policies
• Escalating national debts

Han maintains that these factors, independent of the cryptocurrency ecosystem, will likely exert significant impact on market sentiment. For instance, the price of Bitcoin recently dipped below $60,000 after retaliatory strikes by Israel on Iran, as investors sought refuge in traditional assets like gold, silver, and bonds.

地缘政治紧张局势加剧、利率长期处于高位、通货再膨胀政策、国家债务不断升级韩认为，这些因素与加密货币生态系统无关，可能会对市场情绪产生重大影响。例如，在以色列对伊朗实施报复性打击后，由于投资者寻求黄金、白银和债券等传统资产的避难，比特币的价格最近跌破了 60,000 美元。

Bitcoin's Role as a Macro Asset

比特币作为宏观资产的作用

The report highlights the increased correlation of altcoins to Bitcoin, indicating BTC's role as a key anchor in the crypto space. Despite the emergence of diverse digital assets, Bitcoin remains the market leader, "indicating BTC's anchor role in the space even as BTC firms its position as a macro asset."

该报告强调了山寨币与比特币的相关性增强，表明比特币作为加密货币领域关键锚的作用。尽管出现了多样化的数字资产，但比特币仍然是市场的领导者，“这表明比特币在该领域的锚定作用，尽管比特币巩固了其作为宏观资产的地位。”

Historical Trends and Current Volatility

历史趋势和当前波动性

While historical data suggests that halving events have often coincided with bull markets, Coinbase's report posits that such cyclical uptrends have typically been accompanied by additional catalysts within the crypto space. The recent halving is expected to drive market movements in the coming days.

虽然历史数据表明减半事件通常与牛市同时发生，但 Coinbase 的报告认为，这种周期性上升趋势通常伴随着加密货币领域的额外催化剂。最近的减半预计将推动未来几天的市场走势。

However, hours before the halving, the price of Bitcoin dipped from $64,620 and continued on a steady downward trajectory. It bottomed out around $63,036 and remained in the $63,000 threshold for over twelve hours after the halving. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $63,945, indicating that the halving event has not yet been fully priced in.

然而，在减半前几个小时，比特币的价格从 64,620 美元下跌，并继续稳步下行。它在 63,036 美元附近触底，并在减半后的 12 个多小时内保持在 63,000 美元的关口。截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格约为 63,945 美元，这表明减半事件尚未完全反映在价格中。

Bitcoin's Evolving Perception

比特币不断变化的认知

Coinbase also emphasizes the changing perception of Bitcoin among investors. A growing segment of the market views it as a "digital gold" and a hedge against geopolitical risks. This shift in outlook creates two distinct investor groups: those who perceive Bitcoin as a speculative asset and others who utilize it as a macroeconomic hedge.

Coinbase 还强调了投资者对比特币看法的变化。越来越多的市场人士将其视为“数字黄金”和对冲地缘政治风险的工具。这种观点的转变创造了两个不同的投资者群体：那些将比特币视为投机资产的投资者和将其用作宏观经济对冲工具的投资者。

Cautious Outlook Post-Halving

减半后的前景谨慎

Coinbase's report echoes the sentiments expressed in an earlier Crypto News Flash report by Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs. The bank cautioned against drawing direct comparisons with previous market cycles and overestimating the impact of halving events.

Coinbase 的报告呼应了华尔街巨头高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 早些时候在《加密新闻快报》(Crypto News Flash) 报告中表达的观点。该银行警告不要与之前的市场周期进行直接比较，也不要高估减半事件的影响。

Analysts anticipate that prevailing macroeconomic conditions, including geopolitical tensions and monetary policy decisions, will likely shape a different path for the cryptocurrency market post-halving.

分析师预计，当前的宏观经济状况，包括地缘政治紧张局势和货币政策决定，可能会在减半后为加密货币市场塑造不同的路径。