Coinbase 預測減半後的加密市場將受到宏觀經濟因素的影響

Coinbase預測，比特幣減半後，宏觀經濟因素將影響加密貨幣市場。地緣政治緊張局勢、利率和通膨等外部因素將影響市場情緒。雖然比特幣在減半事件後一直表現良好，但 Coinbase 強調了更廣泛的經濟狀況的影響。報告也指出，比特幣作為地緣政治風險對沖工具的地位日益增強，凸顯了投資者觀念的不斷變化。

Coinbase Predicts Macroeconomic Factors to Shape Crypto Markets Post-Halving

Coinbase 預測宏觀經濟因素將影響減半後的加密貨幣市場

Coinbase Global Inc., a prominent cryptocurrency exchange, asserts that macroeconomic factors will play a significant role in determining the price trajectory of digital asset markets following the recent Bitcoin halving. This view deviates from previous post-halving trends, where industry-driven factors have typically guaranteed a bullish run.

著名的加密貨幣交易所 Coinbase Global Inc. 斷言，近期比特幣減半後，宏觀經濟因素將在決定數位資產市場的價格軌跡方面發揮重要作用。這種觀點與先前的減半後趨勢不同，在先前的趨勢中，產業驅動因素通常保證了牛市。

Macroeconomic Influences on Crypto Markets

宏觀經濟對加密貨幣市場的影響

According to Coinbase's research report, analyst David Han emphasizes the influence of external factors on crypto markets, even amidst robust crypto fundamentals. These external drivers include:

根據 Coinbase 的研究報告，分析師 David Han 強調了外部因素對加密市場的影響，即使在加密貨幣基本面強勁的情況下也是如此。這些外部驅動因素包括：

• Heightened geopolitical tensions
• Prolonged periods of elevated interest rates
• Reflationary policies
• Escalating national debts

Han maintains that these factors, independent of the cryptocurrency ecosystem, will likely exert significant impact on market sentiment. For instance, the price of Bitcoin recently dipped below $60,000 after retaliatory strikes by Israel on Iran, as investors sought refuge in traditional assets like gold, silver, and bonds.

地緣政治緊張局勢加劇、利率長期處於高位、通貨再膨脹政策、國家債務不斷升級韓認為，這些因素與加密貨幣生態系統無關，可能會對市場情緒產生重大影響。例如，在以色列對伊朗實施報復性打擊後，由於投資者尋求黃金、白銀和債券等傳統資產的避難，比特幣的價格最近跌破了 6 萬美元。

Bitcoin's Role as a Macro Asset

比特幣作為宏觀資產的作用

The report highlights the increased correlation of altcoins to Bitcoin, indicating BTC's role as a key anchor in the crypto space. Despite the emergence of diverse digital assets, Bitcoin remains the market leader, "indicating BTC's anchor role in the space even as BTC firms its position as a macro asset."

該報告強調了山寨幣與比特幣的相關性增強，顯示比特幣作為加密貨幣領域關鍵錨的作用。儘管出現了多樣化的數位資產，但比特幣仍然是市場的領導者，“這表明比特幣在該領域的錨定作用，儘管比特幣鞏固了其作為宏觀資產的地位。”

Historical Trends and Current Volatility

歷史趨勢和當前波動性

While historical data suggests that halving events have often coincided with bull markets, Coinbase's report posits that such cyclical uptrends have typically been accompanied by additional catalysts within the crypto space. The recent halving is expected to drive market movements in the coming days.

雖然歷史數據顯示減半事件通常與多頭市場同時發生，但 Coinbase 的報告認為，這種週期性上升趨勢通常伴隨著加密貨幣領域的額外催化劑。最近的減半預計將推動未來幾天的市場趨勢。

However, hours before the halving, the price of Bitcoin dipped from $64,620 and continued on a steady downward trajectory. It bottomed out around $63,036 and remained in the $63,000 threshold for over twelve hours after the halving. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $63,945, indicating that the halving event has not yet been fully priced in.

然而，在減半前幾個小時，比特幣的價格從 64,620 美元下跌，並繼續穩步下行。它在 63,036 美元附近觸底，並在減半後的 12 個多小時內保持在 63,000 美元的關口。截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格約為 63,945 美元，這表明減半事件尚未完全反映在價格中。

Bitcoin's Evolving Perception

比特幣不斷變化的認知

Coinbase also emphasizes the changing perception of Bitcoin among investors. A growing segment of the market views it as a "digital gold" and a hedge against geopolitical risks. This shift in outlook creates two distinct investor groups: those who perceive Bitcoin as a speculative asset and others who utilize it as a macroeconomic hedge.

Coinbase 也強調了投資者對比特幣看法的改變。越來越多的市場人士將其視為「數位黃金」和對沖地緣政治風險的工具。這種觀點的轉變創造了兩個不同的投資者群體：那些將比特幣視為投機資產的投資者和將其用作宏觀經濟對沖工具的投資者。

Cautious Outlook Post-Halving

減半後的前景謹慎

Coinbase's report echoes the sentiments expressed in an earlier Crypto News Flash report by Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs. The bank cautioned against drawing direct comparisons with previous market cycles and overestimating the impact of halving events.

Coinbase 的報導呼應了華爾街巨頭高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 早期在《加密新聞快報》(Crypto News Flash) 報告中表達的觀點。該銀行警告不要與先前的市場週期進行直接比較，也不要高估減半事件的影響。

Analysts anticipate that prevailing macroeconomic conditions, including geopolitical tensions and monetary policy decisions, will likely shape a different path for the cryptocurrency market post-halving.

分析師預計，當前的宏觀經濟狀況，包括地緣政治緊張局勢和貨幣政策決定，可能會在減半後為加密貨幣市場塑造不同的路徑。