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加密货币新闻

链上数据表明,比特币短期持有人最近销售了

2025/03/13 12:30

最近的市场低迷迫使比特币短期持有人亏本出售硬币,这在历史上一直导致了底层。

链上数据表明,比特币短期持有人最近销售了

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin short-term holders have been selling at a notable loss recently, something that has led to bottoms in the past. In its latest weekly report, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode covered how the short-term holders reacted to the recent market downturn.

链上的数据表明,比特币短期持有人最近以显着的损失出售,这在过去导致了底层。在其最新的每周报告中,链分析公司GlassNode介绍了短期持有人对最近的市场下滑的反应。

The “short-term holders” (STHs) are the Bitcoin investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. This cohort includes the new entrants into the market, who tend not to be too resolute. As such, the group can be prone to panic in times of volatility.

“短期持有人”(STHS)是在过去155天内购买硬币的比特币投资者。该队列包括进入市场的新进入者,他们往往不会太坚决。因此,该小组可能在波动率时容易出现恐慌。

“Understanding this cohort’s behaviour helps market observers identify moments of extreme seller exhaustion, which have historically presented opportunities for longer-term investors,” notes Glassnode.

GlassNode指出:“了解该队列的行为有助于市场观察者确定极端卖家疲惫的时刻,这在历史上为长期投资者带来了机会。”

Naturally, the latest sharp price action in the cryptocurrency would also have forced these investors into selling. Which way this selloff tends for the group, that is, whether profit or loss realization, can be determined using the “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR) indicator.

自然,加密货币中最新的急剧价格行动也将迫使这些投资者销售。该抛售的方式趋于该小组,即可以使用“支出的产出利润率”(SOPR)指标确定损益。

The indicator works by going through the transaction history of each token being sold by the STHs to find the price at which they initially purchased the coins. If this previous price is less than the current spot price for any token, then its sale is added to the profit transactions. Similarly, transfers of the opposite type fall in the loss category.

该指标通过浏览STH出售的每个令牌的交易历史记录来找到他们最初购买硬币的价格。如果以前的价格低于任何代币的当前价格,则将其销售添加到利润交易中。同样,相反类型的转移属于损失类别。

When the SOPR is greater than 1, it means the investors’ part of the group are realizing a higher amount of profit than loss. On the other hand, it being under the level suggests that loss-taking is the dominant form of selling among the cohort.

当SOPR大于1时,这意味着投资者的一部分正在意识到利润量高于损失。另一方面,它在此水平上表明,损失是在队列中销售的主要形式。

Now, here is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the 196-hour moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin STH SOPR over the last couple of years:

现在,这是分析公司共享的图表,该图表显示了过去几年比特币STH SOPR的196小时移动平均值(MA)的趋势:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH SOPR has fallen below 1 recently, which implies that these recent buyers have started selling at a loss. At the height of this selloff, the metric’s value reached the 0.97 level, which is close to the low observed during the August capitulation.

如上图所示,比特币STH SOPR最近下跌了1,这意味着这些最近的买家已经开始亏本出售。在此抛售的高峰期,度量标准的价值达到了0.97水平,该水平接近8月份投降期间观察到的低点。

“This persistent downside momentum has left new investors on edge, leading to widespread panic selling at a loss,” reads the report. “Such conditions often precede local seller exhaustion, a dynamic that long-term investors may monitor for potential re-entry opportunities.”

该报告说:“这种持续的下行势头使新的投资者处于边缘状态,从而导致广泛的恐慌出售。” “这种条件通常是在当地卖方疲惫之前的,这是长期投资者可能监控潜在重新进入机会的动态。”

The reason that STH capitulation tends to help Bitcoin reach a bottom is that coins tend to transfer to more resolute hands during such an event. These HODLers have their cost basis at the lower post-crash prices, so it’s easier for them to sit through any further price plunges.

STH投降倾向于帮助比特币达到底部的原因是,在这种情况下,硬币倾向于转移到更坚定的手中。这些霍德尔人的成本基础是施加后的爆炸后价格,因此他们更容易坐在任何进一步的价格下跌中。

It now remains to be seen whether the STH loss-taking that has occurred thus far would be enough for BTC to reach a bottom or not.

现在,到目前为止发生的STH损失是否足以让BTC到达底部还有待观察。

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