Cathie Wood 的 380 万美元比特币目标被认为是有缺陷且不切实际的

在过去的十年中，加密货币的表现优于传统投资，到 2024 年，加密货币的总价值将达到 2.48 万亿美元。Ark Invest 首席执行官 Cathie Wood 预计，到 2030 年，比特币的估值将达到 75 万亿美元，增长 5,855%。然而，由于比特币在现实世界中的实用性有限、稀缺性值得怀疑以及来自其他加密货币的竞争，这一预测面临着重大挑战。

Cathie Wood's Outlandish $3.8 Million Bitcoin Price Target: A Flawed and Inflated Valuation

Cathie Wood 离奇的 380 万美元比特币价格目标：一个有缺陷且夸大的估值

For decades, the financial landscape has been dominated by traditional investments, with stocks consistently outpacing bonds, real estate, gold, and oil in terms of annual returns. However, the emergence of cryptocurrencies in the past decade has upended this paradigm, with digital currencies exhibiting remarkable growth and capturing the attention of investors worldwide.

几十年来，金融格局一直由传统投资主导，股票的年回报率始终超过债券、房地产、黄金和石油。然而，过去十年加密货币的出现颠覆了这一范式，数字货币呈现出显着的增长并吸引了全球投资者的关注。

In 2013, the total value of all cryptocurrencies combined stood at a mere $8.4 billion. Fast forward to 2024, and that figure has skyrocketed to an astonishing $2.48 trillion, boasting a remarkable compound annual growth rate of nearly 77% over a ten-year span. This exceptional performance has not gone unnoticed by Wall Street and its analysts.

2013 年，所有加密货币的总价值仅为 84 亿美元。快进到 2024 年，这一数字已飙升至惊人的 2.48 万亿美元，十年间复合年增长率接近 77%。这一出色的表现并没有被华尔街及其分析师忽视。

Among the most prominent figures in the cryptocurrency space is Cathie Wood, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Ark Invest. Known for her bullish stance on disruptive technologies, Wood has made waves with her latest prediction for Bitcoin (BTC), the world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

加密货币领域最著名的人物之一是 Ark Invest 首席执行官兼首席投资官 Cathie Wood。伍德以其对颠覆性技术的乐观立场而闻名，她对比特币（BTC）的最新预测引起了轰动，比特币是全球市值最大的加密货币。

Speaking at the Bitcoin Investor Day Conference in New York, Wood unveiled an audacious target for Bitcoin: a staggering $3.8 million per coin by 2030. This astronomical projection, which represents a potential upside of 5,855% from Bitcoin's current price, implies a market capitalization of over $75 trillion by the end of the decade.

伍德在纽约举行的比特币投资者日会议上发表讲话，公布了比特币的一个大胆目标：到 2030 年，每枚比特币的价格将达到惊人的 380 万美元。这一天文数字预测，比特币当前价格可能上涨 5,855%，意味着市值将达到到本世纪末将超过 75 万亿美元。

Wood's reasoning behind this outlandish price target hinges on the premise that institutional investors will allocate a modest 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin. However, her bullishness rests on several flawed assumptions and overlooks fundamental issues plaguing the cryptocurrency.

伍德之所以提出这个奇怪的价格目标，其前提是机构投资者会将其投资组合的 5% 适度分配给比特币。然而，她的乐观情绪建立在几个有缺陷的假设之上，并且忽视了困扰加密货币的基本问题。

Lack of Real-World Utility

缺乏现实实用性

Despite El Salvador's adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender, the majority of its citizens remain reluctant to use the cryptocurrency for everyday transactions. A 2023 survey revealed that an overwhelming 88% of Salvadorians did not use Bitcoin, despite the government's efforts to promote its utility.

尽管萨尔瓦多采用比特币作为法定货币，但大多数公民仍然不愿意使用加密货币进行日常交易。 2023 年的一项调查显示，尽管政府努力推广比特币的实用性，但仍有 88% 的萨尔瓦多人没有使用比特币。

The scarcity of Bitcoin, often touted as a major allure for investors, is also questionable. While the supply is capped at 21 million coins, it is ultimately enforced by computer code. Unlike physical assets such as gold, whose scarcity is constrained by natural limitations, the code governing Bitcoin's supply could theoretically be altered, potentially undermining its perceived scarcity.

经常被吹捧为对投资者具有重大吸引力的比特币的稀缺性也值得怀疑。虽然供应量上限为 2100 万枚，但最终是由计算机代码强制执行的。与黄金等实物资产不同，黄金等实物资产的稀缺性受到自然限制的限制，理论上，管理比特币供应的代码可以改变，从而可能削弱其稀缺性。

Competitive Landscape

竞争格局

Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market is eroding as newer and more advanced blockchain networks emerge. As a first-generation blockchain, Bitcoin is outpaced by third-generation networks in terms of transaction fees and settlement times. This competitive landscape poses a significant threat to Bitcoin's long-term prospects.

随着更新、更先进的区块链网络的出现，比特币在加密货币市场的主导地位正在被削弱。作为第一代区块链，比特币在交易费用和结算时间方面都落后于第三代网络。这种竞争格局对比特币的长期前景构成了重大威胁。

Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment

技术分析和市场情绪

Bitcoin's value is largely driven by technical analysis and investor emotions, with its real-world use cases remaining limited and its competitive edge diminishing. Its value is highly speculative and prone to wild fluctuations, making it an inherently risky investment.

比特币的价值很大程度上是由技术分析和投资者情绪驱动的，其现实世界的用例仍然有限，其竞争优势也在减弱。其价值具有高度投机性，容易出现剧烈波动，使其成为一项本质上具有风险的投资。

Conclusion: An Inflated and Unrealistic Projection

结论：夸大且不切实际的预测

Cathie Wood's $3.8 million Bitcoin price target is not only audacious but also fundamentally flawed. It overlooks the lack of real-world utility, the questionable scarcity of the asset, and the intense competition within the cryptocurrency market. While Bitcoin has undoubtedly captured the imagination of investors, its long-term prospects appear uncertain.

Cathie Wood 的 380 万美元比特币价格目标不仅大胆，而且从根本上来说是有缺陷的。它忽视了现实世界实用性的缺乏、资产稀缺性的问题以及加密货币市场内的激烈竞争。尽管比特币无疑吸引了投资者的想象力，但其长期前景似乎不确定。

Investors should exercise caution and avoid blindly following such outlandish price predictions. Instead, they should focus on conducting thorough research, assessing investment fundamentals, and making informed decisions based on objective analysis.

投资者应谨慎行事，避免盲目追随此类离奇的价格预测。相反，他们应该专注于进行彻底的研究，评估投资基本面，并根据客观分析做出明智的决策。