Cathie Wood 的 380 萬美元比特幣目標被認為是有缺陷且不切實際的

在過去的十年中，加密貨幣的表現優於傳統投資，到2024 年，加密貨幣的總價值將達到2.48 兆美元。Ark Invest 執行長Cathie Wood 預計，到2030 年，比特幣的估值將達到75 兆美元，成長5,855%。然而，由於比特幣在現實世界中的實用性有限、稀缺性值得懷疑以及其他加密貨幣的競爭，這項預測面臨重大挑戰。

Cathie Wood's Outlandish $3.8 Million Bitcoin Price Target: A Flawed and Inflated Valuation

Cathie Wood 離奇的 380 萬美元比特幣價格目標：一個有缺陷且誇大的估值

For decades, the financial landscape has been dominated by traditional investments, with stocks consistently outpacing bonds, real estate, gold, and oil in terms of annual returns. However, the emergence of cryptocurrencies in the past decade has upended this paradigm, with digital currencies exhibiting remarkable growth and capturing the attention of investors worldwide.

幾十年來，金融格局一直由傳統投資主導，股票的年回報率始終超過債券、房地產、黃金和石油。然而，過去十年加密貨幣的出現顛覆了這個範式，數位貨幣呈現出顯著的成長並吸引了全球投資者的注意。

In 2013, the total value of all cryptocurrencies combined stood at a mere $8.4 billion. Fast forward to 2024, and that figure has skyrocketed to an astonishing $2.48 trillion, boasting a remarkable compound annual growth rate of nearly 77% over a ten-year span. This exceptional performance has not gone unnoticed by Wall Street and its analysts.

2013 年，所有加密貨幣的總價值僅為 84 億美元。快進到 2024 年，這一數字已飆升至驚人的 2.48 兆美元，十年間複合年增長率接近 77%。這一出色的表現並沒有被華爾街及其分析師忽視。

Among the most prominent figures in the cryptocurrency space is Cathie Wood, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Ark Invest. Known for her bullish stance on disruptive technologies, Wood has made waves with her latest prediction for Bitcoin (BTC), the world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

加密貨幣領域最著名的人物之一是 Ark Invest 執行長兼首席投資長 Cathie Wood。伍德以其對顛覆性技術的樂觀立場而聞名，她對比特幣（BTC）的最新預測引起了轟動，比特幣是全球市值最大的加密貨幣。

Speaking at the Bitcoin Investor Day Conference in New York, Wood unveiled an audacious target for Bitcoin: a staggering $3.8 million per coin by 2030. This astronomical projection, which represents a potential upside of 5,855% from Bitcoin's current price, implies a market capitalization of over $75 trillion by the end of the decade.

伍德在紐約舉行的比特幣投資者日會議上發表講話，公佈了比特幣的一個大膽目標：到2030 年，每個比特幣的價格將達到驚人的380 萬美元。這個天文數字預測，比特幣當前價格可能上漲5,855%，意味著市值將達到本世紀末將超過 75 兆美元。

Wood's reasoning behind this outlandish price target hinges on the premise that institutional investors will allocate a modest 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin. However, her bullishness rests on several flawed assumptions and overlooks fundamental issues plaguing the cryptocurrency.

伍德之所以提出這個奇怪的價格目標，其前提是機構投資者會將投資組合的 5% 適度分配給比特幣。然而，她的樂觀情緒建立在幾個有缺陷的假設之上，並且忽略了困擾加密貨幣的基本問題。

Lack of Real-World Utility

缺乏現實實用性

Despite El Salvador's adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender, the majority of its citizens remain reluctant to use the cryptocurrency for everyday transactions. A 2023 survey revealed that an overwhelming 88% of Salvadorians did not use Bitcoin, despite the government's efforts to promote its utility.

儘管薩爾瓦多採用比特幣作為法定貨幣，但大多數公民仍不願意使用加密貨幣進行日常交易。 2023 年的一項調查顯示，儘管政府努力推廣比特幣的實用性，但仍有 88% 的薩爾瓦多人沒有使用比特幣。

The scarcity of Bitcoin, often touted as a major allure for investors, is also questionable. While the supply is capped at 21 million coins, it is ultimately enforced by computer code. Unlike physical assets such as gold, whose scarcity is constrained by natural limitations, the code governing Bitcoin's supply could theoretically be altered, potentially undermining its perceived scarcity.

經常被吹捧為對投資者俱有重大吸引力的比特幣的稀缺性也值得懷疑。雖然供應量上限為 2,100 萬枚，但最終是由電腦程式碼強制執行的。與黃金等實體資產不同，黃金等實體資產的稀缺性受到自然限制的限制，理論上，管理比特幣供應的程式碼可以改變，從而可能削弱其稀缺性。

Competitive Landscape

競爭格局

Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market is eroding as newer and more advanced blockchain networks emerge. As a first-generation blockchain, Bitcoin is outpaced by third-generation networks in terms of transaction fees and settlement times. This competitive landscape poses a significant threat to Bitcoin's long-term prospects.

隨著更新、更先進的區塊鏈網路的出現，比特幣在加密貨幣市場的主導地位正在被削弱。作為第一代區塊鏈，比特幣在交易費用和結算時間方面都落後於第三代網路。這種競爭格局對比特幣的長期前景構成了重大威脅。

Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment

技術分析與市場情緒

Bitcoin's value is largely driven by technical analysis and investor emotions, with its real-world use cases remaining limited and its competitive edge diminishing. Its value is highly speculative and prone to wild fluctuations, making it an inherently risky investment.

比特幣的價值很大程度上是由技術分析和投資者情緒驅動的，其現實世界的用例仍然有限，其競爭優勢也在減弱。其價值具有高度投機性，容易出現劇烈波動，使其成為本質上具有風險的投資。

Conclusion: An Inflated and Unrealistic Projection

結論：誇大且不切實際的預測

Cathie Wood's $3.8 million Bitcoin price target is not only audacious but also fundamentally flawed. It overlooks the lack of real-world utility, the questionable scarcity of the asset, and the intense competition within the cryptocurrency market. While Bitcoin has undoubtedly captured the imagination of investors, its long-term prospects appear uncertain.

Cathie Wood 的 380 萬美元比特幣價格目標不僅大膽，而且從根本上來說是有缺陷的。它忽視了現實世界實用性的缺乏、資產稀缺性的問題以及加密貨幣市場內的激烈競爭。儘管比特幣無疑吸引了投資者的想像力，但其長期前景似乎不確定。

Investors should exercise caution and avoid blindly following such outlandish price predictions. Instead, they should focus on conducting thorough research, assessing investment fundamentals, and making informed decisions based on objective analysis.

投資人應謹慎行事，避免盲目追隨此類離奇的價格預測。相反，他們應該專注於進行徹底的研究，評估投資基本面，並根據客觀分析做出明智的決策。