新加拿大总理马克·卡尼（Mark Carney）显着增加了赢得下次联邦大选的几率

新当选的加拿大总理马克·卡尼（Mark Carney）最近赢得了自由党的领导竞赛，以取代贾斯汀·特鲁多（Justin Trudeau），他在Polymarket Bettors眼中赢得了下一次联邦大选的几率。

Newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has dramatically increased his odds of winning the next federal election in the eyes of Polymarket bettors.

新当选的加拿大总理马克·卡尼（Mark Carney）急剧增加了他在Polymarket Bettors眼中赢得下一次联邦大选的几率。

Carney now has a 49% chance of winning the next Canadian election, compared to 26% a month ago. Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre's chances are at 51%, down from 72% in February.

卡尼现在有49％的机会赢得下次加拿大大选，而一个月前为26％。保守派反对派领袖皮埃尔·波利夫（Pierre Poilievre）的机会为51％，低于2月的72％。

The next Canadian federal election is scheduled to occur on Sunday, October 20, 2025. However, if the opposition Conservatives and NDP jointly vote against the minority Liberal government on a confidence motion after Parliament resumes from prorogation on March 24, requested by Trudeau on January 6 as he announced his resignation plans pending a new Liberal leader, the government would fall, triggering an election.

下次加拿大联邦大选定于2025年10月20日星期日举行。但是，如果反对派保守党和新民主党在3月24日恢复PROGAGITION的信心动议之后，由特鲁多（Trudeau）在1月6日宣布辞职计划的计划后，将在3月24日恢复PROGAGINE后，将在3月24日恢复PROGAGIT，将在新的Liberal Leaders宣布一名新的自由领导人，那将是政府秋季，将于1月6日宣布，这将是一场精选，如果他宣布辞职计划，那么他将在3月24日恢复。

Carney closing the gap against Poilievre on Polymarket – despite a lag between prediction markets and the polls – is an interesting point.

卡尼（Carney）在预测市场和民意调查之间滞后了对Poilievre的差距，这是一个有趣的观点。

It's also worth noting that the Conservatives are just one percentage point ahead of the Liberals, according to Canadian pollster Nanos Research. This is a big change from last month, when the Conservatives had a 15.8-point lead in a polling average by Responsive Envelope.

据加拿大民意测验者纳米研究（Nanos Research）称，保守派仅比自由党领先一个百分点。与上个月相比，这是一个很大的变化，当时保守党通过响应式信封在投票平均水平上取得了15.8分的领先优势。

This dramatic shift can be attributed to the U.S. trade threats, which have reportedly boosted Prime Minister Carney's chances in the upcoming election, as bettors on Polymarket are indicating.

这种戏剧性的转变可以归因于美国的贸易威胁，据报道，这已经提高了卡尼在即将到来的选举中的机会，正如Polymarket上的投注者所表明的那样。

As reported by the Financial Post, bettors on the prediction market platform now give Carney a 49% chance of winning the next election, a significant increase from the 26% odds he had a month ago.

正如《金融邮报》报道的那样，预测市场平台上的投注者现在给卡尼带来了49％的赢得下一次选举的机会，比他一个月前的26％的赔率大幅增加。

In contrast, Poilievre's chances have decreased to 51%, down from the 72% he had in February.

相比之下，Poilievre的机会已经下降到51％，低于他2月份的72％。

This shift in odds aligns with recent polls that have shown a decrease in the Conservatives' lead and a convergence between the major parties.

赔率的这种转变与最近的民意调查相吻合，这些民意调查显示了保守党的领先地位和主要政党之间的融合。

"It's a perfect storm," said Greg Steele, a political scientist at the University of Toronto. "The Americans are threatening to close the border, the economy is slowing down, and people are starting to realize that they prefer Carney's business sense and central bank experience over Poilievre's bombastic style."

多伦多大学的政治学家格雷格·斯蒂尔（Greg Steele）说：“这是一场完美的风暴。” “美国人威胁要关闭边界，经济正在放缓，人们开始意识到，他们更喜欢卡尼的商业意识和中央银行的经验，而不是Poilievre的轰动性风格。”

This is all a bit of a contrast to last year's U.S. election, where prediction markets consistently showed that then-Republican candidate Donald Trump had a lead over his Democratic opponents.

这与去年的美国大选有点鲜明，在那里预测市场始终表明当时的公共候选人唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）领导了他的民主对手。

The election result, as CoinDesk wrote in an editorial at the time, was only a surprise to those who get their information from CNN.

正如科德斯克（Coindesk）当时在社论中所写的那样，选举结果对于那些从CNN获取信息的人来说只是一个惊喜。

"The collective wisdom of the crowd on prediction markets saw Trump as the favorite throughout the campaign, and ultimately on Election Day," the editorial read. "This aligns with the thinking of economists, who have studied the role of prediction markets in political campaigns."

社论写道：“在预测市场上，人群的集体智慧使特朗普在整个竞选活动中是最爱，最终是选举日。” “这与经济学家的思想相吻合，他们研究了预测市场在政治运动中的作用。”

Crypto on the Canadian campaign trail?

加拿大竞选步道上的加密？

Crypto doesn't seem to be a major plank of a hypothetical Canadian election. While Poilievre holds a Canadian-issued BTC ETF, according to his latest financial disclosure report, and has previously made pro-blockchain and crypto comments, most of the campaign rhetoric appears to be about the trade war.

加密似乎并不是假设的加拿大大选的主要木板。尽管Poilievre持有加拿大发行的BTC ETF，但根据他的最新财务披露报告，并以前曾发表过亲块和加密货币的评论，但大多数竞选言论似乎都与贸易战有关。

Likewise, Carney, who has made mixed if not skeptical comments on crypto in his role as Bank of England governor, hasn't yet spoken about the topic in his new role as Liberal leader.

同样，卡尼（Carney）在担任英格兰银行（Bank of England）州长的角色中对加密货币（Crypto）发表了混杂的评论，他尚未在他担任自由领导人的新角色中谈论这个话题。

At least one crypto exchange, Smart Bitcoin, is planning to accept contributions in crypto for both the Liberals and Conservatives.

至少有一个加密货币智能比特币正计划为自由主义者和保守派接受加密货币的贡献。

"We believe that crypto donors should have the opportunity to contribute to the political parties and candidates of their choice," said the exchange's CEO, Ben Armstrong.

交易所首席执行官本·阿姆斯特朗（Ben Armstrong）说：“我们认为加密货币捐助者应该有机会为他们选择的政党和候选人做出贡献。”

"We are reaching out to the major parties and candidates to offer them the chance to receive contributions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major cryptocurrencies."

“我们正在与主要政党和候选人联系，为他们提供在比特币，以太坊和其他主要加密货币中捐款的机会。”

The Liberals and Conservatives will need to apply for registration as a "third-party candidate" in order to receive contributions in crypto.

自由主义者和保守派将需要作为“第三方候选人”申请注册，以便在加密货币中获得捐款。

"We are committed to providing our users with the best possible experience, and we hope that this initiative will encourage more people to get involved in the political process."

“我们致力于为用户提供最佳的经验，我们希望这项倡议会鼓励更多的人参与政治进程。”

It remains to be seen whether any of the major candidates will accept contributions in crypto. However, the option is now available, and it will be interesting to see if any of the candidates decide to accept.

是否有任何主要候选人会接受加密货币的贡献还有待观察。但是，该选项现已可用，有趣的是，看看是否有任何候选人决定接受。

This story was originally featured on Benzinga

这个故事最初是在本辛加的