New Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney Dramatically Increases His Odds of Winning the Next Federal Election

Newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who recently won a leadership contest of the Liberal Party to replace Justin Trudeau, has dramatically increased his odds of winning the next federal election in the eyes of Polymarket bettors.

Newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has dramatically increased his odds of winning the next federal election in the eyes of Polymarket bettors.

Carney now has a 49% chance of winning the next Canadian election, compared to 26% a month ago. Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre's chances are at 51%, down from 72% in February.

The next Canadian federal election is scheduled to occur on Sunday, October 20, 2025. However, if the opposition Conservatives and NDP jointly vote against the minority Liberal government on a confidence motion after Parliament resumes from prorogation on March 24, requested by Trudeau on January 6 as he announced his resignation plans pending a new Liberal leader, the government would fall, triggering an election.

Carney closing the gap against Poilievre on Polymarket – despite a lag between prediction markets and the polls – is an interesting point.

It's also worth noting that the Conservatives are just one percentage point ahead of the Liberals, according to Canadian pollster Nanos Research. This is a big change from last month, when the Conservatives had a 15.8-point lead in a polling average by Responsive Envelope.

This dramatic shift can be attributed to the U.S. trade threats, which have reportedly boosted Prime Minister Carney's chances in the upcoming election, as bettors on Polymarket are indicating.

As reported by the Financial Post, bettors on the prediction market platform now give Carney a 49% chance of winning the next election, a significant increase from the 26% odds he had a month ago.

In contrast, Poilievre's chances have decreased to 51%, down from the 72% he had in February.

This shift in odds aligns with recent polls that have shown a decrease in the Conservatives' lead and a convergence between the major parties.

"It's a perfect storm," said Greg Steele, a political scientist at the University of Toronto. "The Americans are threatening to close the border, the economy is slowing down, and people are starting to realize that they prefer Carney's business sense and central bank experience over Poilievre's bombastic style."

This is all a bit of a contrast to last year's U.S. election, where prediction markets consistently showed that then-Republican candidate Donald Trump had a lead over his Democratic opponents.

The election result, as CoinDesk wrote in an editorial at the time, was only a surprise to those who get their information from CNN.

"The collective wisdom of the crowd on prediction markets saw Trump as the favorite throughout the campaign, and ultimately on Election Day," the editorial read. "This aligns with the thinking of economists, who have studied the role of prediction markets in political campaigns."

Crypto on the Canadian campaign trail?

Crypto doesn't seem to be a major plank of a hypothetical Canadian election. While Poilievre holds a Canadian-issued BTC ETF, according to his latest financial disclosure report, and has previously made pro-blockchain and crypto comments, most of the campaign rhetoric appears to be about the trade war.

Likewise, Carney, who has made mixed if not skeptical comments on crypto in his role as Bank of England governor, hasn't yet spoken about the topic in his new role as Liberal leader.

At least one crypto exchange, Smart Bitcoin, is planning to accept contributions in crypto for both the Liberals and Conservatives.

"We believe that crypto donors should have the opportunity to contribute to the political parties and candidates of their choice," said the exchange's CEO, Ben Armstrong.

"We are reaching out to the major parties and candidates to offer them the chance to receive contributions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major cryptocurrencies."

The Liberals and Conservatives will need to apply for registration as a "third-party candidate" in order to receive contributions in crypto.

"We are committed to providing our users with the best possible experience, and we hope that this initiative will encourage more people to get involved in the political process."

It remains to be seen whether any of the major candidates will accept contributions in crypto. However, the option is now available, and it will be interesting to see if any of the candidates decide to accept.

This story was originally featured on Benzinga