Bybit 和 Block Scholes 联手分析加密衍生品市场动态

该报告指出，尽管主要期权于 2024 年 12 月 27 日到期，但市场波动性仍然较低。

The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, Bybit, recently launched its Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report in collaboration with Block Scholes. The report highlights how major options expirations are set to occur on December 27, 2024, yet the market is showing low volatility.

按交易量计算，全球第二大加密货币交易所 Bybit 最近与 Block Scholes 合作推出了加密货币衍生品分析报告。该报告强调了主要期权将于 2024 年 12 月 27 日到期，但市场波动性较低。

Despite the realized volatility of Bitcoin’s (BTC) and Ethereum’s (ETH) showing trends to the higher side, short-term options have shown little reaction to the price swings. This shows how options are not aligning with the market shifts happening in the spot.

尽管比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）的实际波动率呈现出较高的趋势，但短期期权对价格波动几乎没有反应。这表明期权与现场发生的市场变化不一致。

There’s over $525 million set to expire in BTC and ETH options contracts in the next week. December will also see one of the biggest options expiries, going by the expiration date. However, expectations for volatility are still low.

超过 5.25 亿美元的 BTC 和 ETH 期权合约将于下周到期。 12 月也将迎来最大的期权之一的到期日。然而，对波动性的预期仍然较低。

The analysis finds interesting disparities in the structure of ETH, which isn’t mirrored by BTC. It can be noticed how the finance rates at times go negative as the spot price goes down, hinting at a new phase in the market.

分析发现 ETH 的结构存在有趣的差异，而 BTC 并未反映出这一点。可以注意到，随着现货价格下跌，融资利率有时会变为负数，这暗示着市场进入了一个新阶段。

Market Expectations and Volatility Shifts

市场预期和波动性变化

While the realized volatility of BTC and ETH rose, short-term options haven’t reflected this. The structure of BTC’s volatility is less sensitive to spot price changes compared to ETH, whose short-term options are much more sensitive to such moves.

虽然 BTC 和 ETH 的实际波动率上升，但短期期权并未反映出这一点。与 ETH 相比，BTC 的波动性结构对现货价格变化不太敏感，而 ETH 的短期期权对此类波动更为敏感。

Over the past two weeks, the spot price for BTC ranged from $92K to $106K, and that for ETH from $3.3K to $4K, but the short-tenor options haven’t kept pace with such moves. Funding rates for perpetual contracts mirrored spot price movements, going from neutral to negative.

过去两周，BTC 现货价格从 9.2 万美元到 10.6 万美元不等，ETH 现货价格从 3.3 万美元到 4 万美元不等，但短期期权并没有跟上这种走势。永续合约的融资利率反映了现货价格走势，从中性变为负值。

When it comes to options, ETH’s short-term options are generally much more volatile, whereas term structure is more focused on BTC for long-term volatility.

就期权而言，ETH 的短期期权通常波动性更大，而期限结构则更关注 BTC 的长期波动性。

The last stretch of the year will see the expiration of nearly $360 million in Bitcoin options (both call and put), which could have a major impact on the volatility of Bitcoin, influencing how far and fast it may climb or fall.

今年最后一段时间，近 3.6 亿美元的比特币期权（包括看涨期权和看跌期权）将到期，这可能会对比特币的波动性产生重大影响，影响其上涨或下跌的幅度和速度。

While calls are still leading open interest at the moment, having more puts traded, this still implies that market participants are setting up for potential upside price moves. This again signals how BTC and ETH seem to have somewhat differing dynamics with their respective options markets being near year’s end.

尽管目前看涨期权仍领先于未平仓合约，看跌期权交易量有所增加，但这仍然意味着市场参与者正在为潜在的价格上涨做好准备。这再次表明 BTC 和 ETH 的动态似乎有所不同，因为它们各自的期权市场已接近年底。